N Dakota At Idaho Free Pick

N Dakota +10.

Let me first say that their is no way Idaho should be a 10 point favorite. They should be somewhere between a 4 to 7 point favorite.

N Dakota comes into this game averaging 58 points per game and allowing 70 points per game. That is better then Idaho who is averaging 57 points per game and allowing 72 points per game.

I always figure out what Vegas thinks the score should be when they make the lines. This game has an O/U set at 129 and Idaho -10. So with that line it is saying that Idaho will win this game 69.5 to 59.5.

Well how is Idaho going to win by that score when they have not had a game all year where they gave up less then 60 points. It is not easy to cover a spread of +10 when your defense is not playing that great. N Dakota on the other hand has to allow 69.5 points. They have only allowed that twice all year so far.

I do not see Idaho being able to beat this N Dakota team by 10 points. I think this game will be a lot closer then what people think. I see a final score around 65-60.

I recommend playing N Dakota +10...

Good Luck Everyone!

12/1 Richmond at Old D

I tried to write a blog on this but it got erased. I do not have much time so their is no big write up today. Been a solid past two days hope I can keep it going.

Todays Play.

Richmond Old D under 122.

Two very good defensive teams going up against each other and the books know it will be more defense then offense.

Good Luck Everyone!

11/30 NCAA Mens Basketball Bradley at W. Carolina

Bradley at W. Carolina Under 132.5

One of the first things I like to do is figure out what the books think the score is going to be of a game. Looking at this game they have W Carolina -3 and Over under of 132.5. I see them having this game end up W Carolina 68 Bradley 65.

Well Bradley is going to have to score 65 points and allow 68. Bradley had played 5 games against Division 1 opponents and has only scored more then 65 twice and that was 68 against TCU and 66 against N Illinois who is one of the worst defenses in college basketball ranked at 318 out of 345 teams. Bradley on the other hand is not going to allow 68 points. This team has only allowed more then 68 once this year out of the 5 games against Div 1 schools they played.

W Carolina comes into this game having to score 68 and allow 65 to have this game go over the total. W. Carolina has only scored 68 points or more in 1 of their 6 games against Division 1 schools this year. No W Carolina does not have that solid of a defense. They have allowed 65 or more points in 4 of their 6 games against Division 1 schools this year. So should this scare me that Bradley will score on W Carolina.

These two teams are not very good at shooting. Bradley is averaging only 38% from the field this year while W. Carolina is only averaging 39% from the field. Both of these teams are shooting under 70% from the line so we will see some missed free throws in this game tonight.

I have found a few trends I like for this game. The under is 4-1 in Bradley's last 5 non conference games. The under is 4-0-1 in W. Carolina's last 5 home games as a favorite. The under is 5-0 in W. Carolina's last 5 games against non conference opponents.

I do not see W Carolina scoring many points on this Bradley team. This Bradley team is in the top 100 for defenses in College basketball. Bradley is not that great of a shooting team and either is W Carolina. I really believe that these two teams will miss a lot of shots and the defense will step up for these two teams. I am going to play the under in this game.

Good Luck Everyone!

College Basketball 11/29

Well took a few days off for the holiday and now it is time to get back to work. Today I am going to jump to the College Basketball scene hoping that the game I like nets us a winner.

Play: St. Peters and Seton Hall Under 121.

These two teams will play a very slow pace in this game and both teams are not very good at shooting the ball. St Peters is averaging 37% from the field while SH is avergaing 40% from the field. St Peters is a very poor free throw shooting team at only 48%. So with two teams who play a slow pace and do not make shots this game is going to be low. The defense of both teams is sub par and should contribute into this game being a slow pace game.

A few trends I like for this game The under is 5-1 in SH's last 6 home games as a favorite of 7-12.5. The under is 7-2 in St. Peters last 9 road games as an underdog of 7-12.5 points. These two teams have played each other the past 2 years and both game finished under 110 points.

For SH to cover this game they will have to score about 66 points while St Peters scores 55. The thing is though St. Peters has only given up more then 66 points once this year. SH has actually scored less then 66 points in 3 of their 5 games this year. I truly believe that SH will not score 66 on St. Peters and this game should end in the 110-115 range. I am looking at a 60-50 type game.

Good Luck Everyone!

Thanksgiving NFl 11/25

Lions +6.5.

I really like the Lions to give the Patriots a solid game today. This team has played very solid this year. They are 7-3 ATS on the year and 4-0 ATS at home this season. I know a lot of people will question why I like the Lions since they have not covered a spread on Turkey day since 2003. Well this is not the same team that we have seen in the past with the Lions. I know Matthew Stafford is out but Shaun Hill should actually have a good game against this young Patriots secondary. He has actually played solid the past two weeks throwing for 612 yards in those past 2 weeks and throwing 3 TD’S and 2 Interceptions. In those 2 weeks he is completing 63 % of his passes. This year at home he has played in 2 games throwing for 562 yards and having 5 TD’S while throwing just 2 Interceptions.

The Patriots come into this game playing some real good football as of late. The have beaten the Steelers and Colts in back to back weeks here. Now the thing is for them though they are in a very tough spot. They are coming off two big wins over playoff contending teams and now they get the last place Lions on a short week with travel and then go back home to take on their big rival in the Jets. We could see the Patriots not mentally into this game. I know Bill Belichick is a very good coach and he will do everything in his power to keep his guys focused but this is a very tough spot for them.

I really believe that the Patriots are going to look past the Lions in this game and the Lions are going to catch them and keep this game very close. If you have Shaun Hill and any of the Lions wide receivers or tight end in fantasy football you should be starting them this week. Jahvid Best looks like he is not going to be playing and with the Lions already pass happy we should see more passing going up against a young secondary. We should see the Lions put up points on the board. I am going to play the Lions +6.5 on this game hoping that they can break that streak of non covers on Thanksgiving Day.

Good Luck Everyone!
Happy Thanksgiving!
No Blog Tomorrow .Will be spending the day golfing with my father in law if it doesn't rain.

NBA 11/24

Bulls and Suns under 210.

I know the Bulls played last night and they should be tired from a tough game against the Lakers so this game will get slowed down. The Bulls know if they want to compete with these fast pace teams they need to slow the game down. They have actually done that this season. They have played 7 games this year against teams that are in the top 10 in scoring. They have seen 5 of those 7 games go under the total. Four of them were on the road they have actually seen 3 of those 4 go under the total. They know to win against these teams that score a lot of points and have a lot of possessions they need to slow it down.

Chicago comes into this game playing very good defense their past 7 games. They have only given up more then 100 points once in those 7 games. They are allowing only 93 points per game in those 7 games. This season they are only allowing 99 points per game on the road. They have only allowed more then 107 points this season 2 times out of 12 games. One of those games also had to go to OT for Boston to get over 107 points. I really look for Chicago to play solid defense again tonight.

The Suns come into this game averaging 107 points per game on the year. They were actually in a little bit of a funk for a few games were they scored no more then 105 in any of the four games they played before they broke out and dropped 123 on a horrible Houston team. Everyone knows that this Suns team scores points but how will they do against a very good defensive team like the Bulls. They just came off playing two very good defensive teams in the Magic and Heat and they only scored 96 and 89 points in those games.

Their are a few trends I like for this game. The over under is 0-5 in the last 5 homes games for the Suns against the Central division. The under is 6-0 in the Bulls last 6 games against the Western Conference. The Under is 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 games as a road underdog. Dating back to last season the the over under is 6-12-2 in the Bulls games where they are playing on the back end of a back to back.

I really believe that the Bulls slow this game down and make the Suns work for their points. They know that is going to be the only way they can win this game. They have stepped their defense up and we should see it again tonight. This team is very capable of shutting high powered offenses down and we know that the Suns struggle to score points against tough defenses. So I will play the under in this one tonight.

Good Luck Everyone!

NBA 11/23

Detroit +9.5

Detroit comes into this game actually playig much better basketball. Winning 3 out of their last 5 and also going 7-3 ATS in thier last 10 games. They are actually 5-2 ATS on the road this year. Detroit is also 2-1 ATS on the front end of a back to back this year.

Dallas comes into this game actually playing better on the road then at home. They are 4-1 away this year and 4-1 ATS in those 5 games. When they come home they are 4-3 and only 1-4-2 ATS at home this year. They seem to not play as strong at home then they do away. It is kind of head sratching since most teams play better at home but maybe they feel more pressure to win at home then they do away. I do not know but it helps us bettors since you can not make them a small dog over a bad team at home since then all the money would come in on them and books want even action.

Some of the trends I like for this game is as followed. Dallas is 2-16-2 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite of 8 plus points.Dallas is 4-20-2 ATS in their last 26 home against a team with a losing road record. The Pistons are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games as an underdog. The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Mavs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the Central division. The road team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Detroit has played Dallas very tough the last 3 meeting. Yes Dallas has won all 3 of them but by no more then 5 points in those 3 games. Dallas seems to play down to competition at home while Detroit seems to get up for these games against top teams. I just do not see Dallas blowing this Detroit team out who is playing better basketball as of late. I think this is going to be a closer game then expected and Detroit should cover this line. So I will play the Pistons in this one.

Good Luck everyone!

NBA 11/22

Suns and Rockets Under 213.5

These Two teams come into this game on a bit of a scoring drought.Which is why I am liking the under in this game.

The Suns are averaging only 97 points per game their last 3 games. Which is down 9 points from their yearly avg of 106. I know they have all been on the road but they were averaging 108 points per game on the road before this road trip.

Houston comes into this game averaging 96 points per game their last 3 games which is down from their yearly average of 105 per game. Houston on the year has actually averaged less at home then on the road. they are averaging 101 points per game at home and 106 on the road. The one thing about Houston though is they have seen 6 of their last 7 go under the total since losing Aaron Brooks to injury. They were averaging 110 points per game before his injury and now since his injury they are averaging only 101 points per game.

The Suns are on their final game of this road trip where they have seen their scoring drop and they are 0-3 in these past 3 game son the road trip. I am sure they just want to get back home and get back to a comfortable place for them. I do not see them scoring like the usually do since I feel the effort might be down a little bit. Houston really needs a win and I am sure they are going to put up a fight in this one and we should see their defense play a little bit stronger.

1 Unit on the Under

Good Luck Everyone!

NBA 11/21

NO and Kings Over 195

We are getting great value in this game since it has been bet down from 198. I really like this game since we have the Hornets who are a great defensive team and the books open this line at 198. The Kings are not a strong scoring team they are only averaging 97 points per game at home this year. So again why would this open at 198 especially since the Hornets are only allowing 92 points per game. Well the book must know that these teams will score points.

The Hornets come into this game averaging 102 points per game their last 5 games. That is 4 points more then their previous five games. They are allowing 93 points per game their last 5 games up two points from the 91 they were allowing the previous 5 games.

The Kings comes into this game averaging 93 points per game and allowing 99 points per game their last 5 games. Their defense has actually gotten better from the previous 5 games where they were allowing 106 points per game. Their scoring has even gotten worse. They were scoring 102 points per game the previous 5 and now only 93. So I again have to wonder why this game opens at 198.

A few trends I like for this game are as followed. The Hornets on 1 days rest have seen 4 of their 5 games this year go over the total. The average score in those games are 197 points. The Kings on 1 day rest have seen 3 of their 6 go over the total and the average score in those games is 198. The over is 5-1 in the Hornets last 6 games against the Pacific division. The over is 12-5 the last 17 games for the Hornets against a team with a losing home record. The Kings have seen 6 of their last 7 go over the total their last 7 games as an underdog. The over is 5-1 in the Kings last 6 games against a team with a winning % above .600. The over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Sacramento between these two teams.

When I saw this line open at 198 I had to really think about why the books would open this so high with how strong of a defense the Hornets have. Then I saw everyone betting the under that it moved the line 3 points I knew the public was thinking the same thing. These two teams I believe will play a close game and I feel we will see a game that ends over 200 total I will play the under 195 tonight.

Good Luck Everyone!

NBA 11/20

NY and Clips Over 210

This game features one team that scores and whole bunch and another team that does not score that much. The Line is 210. What is that telling you? The books know that the Clips will score points. They average 95 points per game on the year and the Knicks average 106 and this line is at 210. Well both of these teams do not play defense. The Clips are allowing 105 points per game while the Knicks are allowing 108 points per game.

The Clippers have played 6 home games this year and have not seen a total set over 200 at home on the year. After starting the season on an under streak they have fallen apart on defense and just letting teams score at ease. Their last 8 games they have allowed more then 100 points in those 8 games and are allowing an average of 109 points per game those 8 games. The over is 6-2 in those 8 games. Now they get the knicks who are just scoring at will.

The Knicks are averging 112 points per game over their last 6 games and allowing 114 points per game in those 6 games. In those 6 games they have seen 4 of those 6 go over the posted total. So along with scoring a ton of points they also have forgotten how to play defense. To top it off for the Knicks they have played 4 games this year on the back end of a back to back and are seeing those games average about 214 points.

Some trends that I like for this game are as followed. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meeting between these two teams. The Average line for those 5 games was 208. We are talking only two points for two teams that are posting alot of overs lately. The over is 8-0 in the Knicks last 8 games against the Pacific division. The over is 14-4 in the Knicks last 18 games on the road. The over is 8-1-1 in the Clippers last 10 meeting against Eastern Conf teams. The over is 4-0 playing on 1 day rest.

Until one of these teams decides to play defense their is no way I could play and under with them. The Books know that this game is going to be more of a NY pace then a Clippers pace by setting this line up at 210. So I will say that these two teams end up playing over the posted total in this game.

Good Luck Everyone!

NFL 11/18

Miami -1.5.

I know Miami does not have their starting QB but I think Thigpen will be just fine tonight. Miami has played som every good teams this year. They have played 9 games and 6 of them came against teams that have a good shot to make the playoffs. Their schedule was brutal so far. Unlike the bears who have had the likes of playing Detroit, Seattle, Carolina, Buffalo, Dallas all teams that have no shot of making the playoffs. Showing me that the Dolphins ar ebattled tested while the Bears have not really played that tough of a schedule. It is going to be hard for Chicago on a short week traveling to Miami. I think Miami's D will show up and play a solid game and force Cutler into his usual self of mistakes and like I said Thigpen should be just fine. I will play Miami -1.5 for 1 unit tonight.

Good Luck Everyone!

NBA 11/17

Well the free play did not come through last night. But tonight I am hoping to get back to the winning ways. The paid plays are up over at http://www.pickmonitor.com/profile/jeepsguy004.
Tonight free play now.

Washington +13.5

Boston is a very good basketball team, but they are not a team that cares about blowing others out of the building. They have played 4 home games this year and they have covered only 1 of them. Yes they won all 4 of them but they just don't blow teams out. Washington for some reason seems to play Boston well. The last 5 games these two have played against each other you have never seen the Wizards lose by less then 11. They even went into Boston last year and won there. The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Wizards are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a home winning % of .600 or greater. This shows me that the Wizards do not lay down for good teams.
Boston on the other hand is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games at home against teams with a road winning % of .400 or less. The Celtics are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 11 plus. Like I said they do not blow teams out and they do not care, they are a veteran team who just wants to win. I am going to play the Wizards +13.5 for 1 unit.

Good Luck Everyone!

NBA 11/16

Picked up a nice win with Denevr and Phoenix under last night. I am going to jump right back on Denver again and play the Under 219 between them and NY tonight.

The line opened at 217.5 and has since been bet up to 219. I think we are getting great value in this game. Denver comes in on a back to back. Denver has played 3 games on the back end of a back to back and 2 of those 3 have gone under the total. Denver has also seen 6 of their last 8 games go under against Eastern Conference teams. Ny comes into Denver averaging 101 points the last 5 trips their. 4 out of their last 5 trips their they have not seen a game over over 219 points. They have played 5 road games this year and are averaging 100 points per game. NY has seen 4 of its last 5 against the Northwest going under the total and those 5 games have averaged 204 points. NY has also seen the total go under the number the last 4 games on 1 days rest. I truly believe with Denver playing last night will not put in as much effort tonight against a hapless Knicks team. I also see NY starting their first game of their road trip to Denver is usually tough since it seems teams have problems adjusting to that altitude. So I feel this game will stay under the total tonight. 1 unit on the under for me.

Good Luck Everyone

11/15 Play

Well it has been a rough few days with the free picks. But the paid plays are not doing to bad. Now I can focus just on NBA tonight since their is only one NFL game and it does not catch my eye. Looking to get the free play back in winning mode so tonight I have 1 that I like.

Denver at Phoenix.
Play the Under 218.

Phoenix is on a back to back tonight after a big win over the Lakers so I do not know how much effort they will put into this game. They are only averaging 103 points per game on the back end of a back to back this year. They however have allowed 107 points per game their last 5 games on the back end of a back to back. The one thing that catches my eye on this is Denver has seen 4 of its last 5 games go under the total as an underdog of 2 or less points. The Average score for those 5 games is 202 points. Denver this year had played 5 road games and only one of them has gone over 218 points. Phoenix on the other hand has played 4 home games this year and 3 of those 4 went over 218 points but the game against Memphis they needed 43 points in the Overtime to get it over that number. A few trends I like fo this game are. The under is 4-1 in Denver's last 5 games on 3 days rest. The under is 4-1 in Denvers last 5 road games. The Under is 6-0 in the Suns last 6 games against the Northwest. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. I will play the under for 1 unit on this game.

Good Luck Everyone! I will have the paid plays up no later then 3pm eastern at . http://www.pickmonitor.com/profile/jeepsguy004

Suns at Lakers

Well the free pick was either a loss last night or a push. It all depends on what you got the line at. So today I have found one that should really get a win today. I have my paid plays up over at http://www.pickmonitor.com/profile/jeepsguy004.

Todays free Play is Suns and Lakers Under 216.5.

I like the fact that the Lakers are on 2 days rest. We should see their Defense play pretty solid today. They usually work on their D when they get two days rest. It shows with the trend of The Under is 20-7 the last 27 games when the Lakers have two days rest. The under is also 35-17 in the Lakers last 52 games after a straight up loss. That is showing me they step their D after a loss. The Spuns have seen the Under go under 4 of the last 5 road games. The under is also 4-1 in the last 5 games for them as a road underdog. 1 unit on the under in this game.

Good Luck Everyone!

NBA 11/13

It was profitable night last night going 2-1-1 on my paid plays. The 1 unit freebie did not come through but I do have one that I like to get back to winning today. I have 3 College football games and 3 NBA games up that you can view for a small price today at http://www.pickmonitor.com/profile/jeepsguy004. Here is my freebie for today.

Bucks -7.5

The Bucks started this season a little slow but are starting to come together. They are 3-1 Su their past 4 games also going 3-1 ATS in those 4 games. They have played two home games this year as a Favorite of 5 or more and are 2-0 ATS in those games. They catch the Warriors tonight on their final game of this 5 game road trip. So I can see them looking forward to getting back home. The Warriors will also be without David Lee who is now out for the next two weeks. The Warriors have played 5 road games this year and have been a dog in four of them. They are 2-2 ATS in those 4 games but are 0-2 ATS as a dog of 5 or more. I really believe the Bucks will be ready to play and get a win an cover here tonight to get them back to .500 and show they are a team on the rise. The Warriors will struggle without Lee and like I said heading back home after this I think they could just be looking to get this road trip over with. 1 Unit on the Bucks -7.5 in this game.

Good Luck Everyone!

NBA 11/12

Well large NBA card tonight and I have a few games that I jumped on board already for. You can get those picks over at http://www.pickmonitor.com/profile/jeepsguy004.

The free pick for tonight is Detroit and LA Clippers under 190.

These two teams both play a very slow style basketball game. Detroit this year has played 4 road games and is only averaging 88 points per game on the road. The O/U is 1-3 in the Pistons road games this year. The Clippers on the other hand is averaging 92 points per game in their 4 homes games this year and they have all been against slow pace teams except the one against OKC and that is the game they scored 107 points. The O/U is 1-3 in the Clippers home games this year. I think we see Detroit and the Clippers both play their slow style basketball and this game only ends up being in the 180's. 1 Unit on the Under Pistons and Clippers.

Toledo at N. Illinois

Toldeo at N. Illinois

Opening Line: N Illinois -12 Over Under 48.5
Current Line: N Illinois -11 or -10.5 Over Under 49.5 or 50

Play Under 50 -110 Betjamaica

Both of these teams come into this game showing that they can score points. Toldeo is averaging 36 points per game their last 3 games. N. Illinois is averaging 35 points per game their last 3 games. With both teams scoring like this I have to wonder why they opened this total at 48.5. Well these two teams have played great defense as of late. Toledo is only allowing 17 points while N. Illinois is allowing only 14 points per game. N. Illinois is only allowing 14 points per game at home also this year. By opening this line at only 48.5 the books are saying that we should see a tough defensive game.

Their are a few trends that I like for this game. The under is 7-3 in Toledo's last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or greater. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 games that N. Illinois has played on a Tuesday night. The Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 games that N Illinois has played after a bye week. The under is 3-1-2 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The under is 2-1 in Toledo's 3 conference road games this year. The under is 2-1 in the 3 home conference games that N Illinois has played in this year.

N. Illinois is a team that likes to run the ball. We see that since they do average about 243 yards per game on the ground. That does eat up clock. Toledo is actually pretty solid at stopping the run allowing only 116 yards per game this year on the ground. Both of these teams are in the top 50 for yards allowed per game on defense. With both teams coming off a bye week and having the time to prepare for this game the defense's from both teams should be well rested and should dictate this game.

I really like that we are getting some value with the over being bet and moving this line up. The public likes the offense that these two teams have displayed as of late and we see that they are betting it also. I am believer in defense and that is how big games are won. This is a very big game since both teams are 5-0 in conference and are 1 and 2 seeds in the MAC West division. I believe that the under is the right play in this game.

Good Luck Everyone!

UAB at S Miss

Opening Line: S Miss -10
Current Line : S Miss -9.5 and -10 at some books.

UAB comes into this game off a tough loss last week at Mississippi St by 5 but covering the 19.5 point spread. This team does not impress me at all this year. I watched them get man handled a few weeks ago at Central Florida and I have a feeling that is going to happen again in this game. They do not play that well on the road. They are allowing 33 points per game on the road this year and now they have to go into S Miss who has been lighting the scoreboard up the past few weeks. They have not gone on the road yet this year with not allowing 28 or more points. They do not score as well on the road either. They are only averaging 17 points per game on the road. I took a look at how they play in conference on the road and they are 2-3 ATS their last 5 road conference games and are scoring 21 points per game but allowing 32 points per game in those 5 games.

S Miss on the other hand has just been on fire their last few games. Thy come into this one off a blowout win at Memphis where they covered as 16.5 point favorites. They are averging 42 points per game thier last 3 games. They have played 6 games this year against Division 1 schools and they have only allowed more then 20 points twice in those 6 games. That was against South Carolina who is a top 25 team and ECU who is at the top of their conference. I looked at how they play in conference and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home conference games averaging 41 points per game and allowing 23 points per game. So I dug a little deeper on them and took a look how they perform as a big favorite. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 8 or more points. In those 5 games they are averaging 41 points per game and allowing only 18 points per game. This is showing me that they do not take teams for granted and play to their level and not down to other teams levels.

I feel that S Miss is going to come into this game and should keep their hot scoring going since UAB does give up points on the road. Their defense has played well this season and should shut down this UAB offense. UAB hammered this S Miss team last year, winning by 13 as a 10 point dog. This is revenge for S Miss this year, since it is on their home field now. I do not like to play big favorites like this but like I said I am not impressed with this UAB team from what I have seen. I think S Miss wins this game by a score of 37-17.

S Miss -10 for me.

C Mich at N Ill

Opening Line: N. Ill -10 now at -10.5. Over under 52.5 now at 54.

We have two teams in this MAC game going in opposite directions. C Mich comes into this game off a big loss at home as a 13 point favorite to Miami Ohio. N Ill comes into this game off a big win at home against Buffalo as a 14 point favorite.

C Michigan has not been the same team as they were the past few years when they had a stud QB. This team is really struggling. They only have two wins this year and that was against Hampton and the other came at the hands of Eastern Michigan who is at the bottom of the West Division in the MAC with a 1-6 record. They have averaged 21 points per game their last 4 games but have allowed 33 points per game in those 4 games. They have not allowed a team to score less then 27 in those past 4 games. This does not look good for them since N Ill has been on a tear of scoring points.

N Ill comes into this game on a 4 game win streak and covering all 4 of those games. They come into this game averaging 40 points per game their last 4 games and allowing only 17 points per game those last 4 games. They have played 3 conference games this year and have only allowed an average of 15 points per game in those 3 conference games. N Ill has only allowed an average of 13 points per game in their last 5 home conference game and have scored and average of 36 points per game. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home conference games. N Ill is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.

N Ill comes into this game knowing that the past 3 years they have had their struggles against C Mich. Now it is time to give their fans a win over a program that has beaten them pretty good in 2 of those past 3 games. Last years game C Mich was a 13.5 point favorite and won by 14. Now this year N Ill is a 10 point favorite. It shows that the tides have turned on these two teams. The Home team in this series is also 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

I feel N Ill is going to be ready for this game and they want to put a beating on this team. They have had to live with C Mich being the top dog in the MAC the past few years and now it is their turn to show who the top dog is. 10.5 points is alot of points in a conference game but I just think wil N Ill defense being so tough and their offense scoring at will as of late they will win this game over a C Mich team that just seems to have let up already on the season. Should see a N Ill win by about 13-17 points I think.

N Ill 33 C Mich 17

Friday Night Football SFL at Cincy

The opening line for this game was Cincy -8 and has since been bet down to -7.5. The opening over under for this game was 46 and has been bet up to 48.

South Florida comes into this game playing on the road last week at West Virginia as a 10 point dog in a game they got beat by 14. Now they must go on the road again where they have had their struggles and play Cincy as a 7.5 point dog. South Florida has really struggled on the road their last 8 games. They are only averging 18 points per game away from home and to take it even farther their last 5 conference road games they have only averaged 16 points per game. Their defense has not been anything special either on the road. The last 8 road games their defense has allowed an average of 25 points per game. Their last 5 road conference games they have allowed 28 points per game. South Florida has two wins over Division 1 schools this year and that is Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky. Both of them were at home and those two schools are two of the worst football teams in Div 1 this year. They are 1-10 combined this year them two schools.

Cincy comes into this game with back to back wins against Miami Oh at home as a 19.5 point favorite and then went on the road last week and beat Louisville as a 2.5 points road favorite. Now they are back home against a conference rival as a 7.5 point favorite. Cincy has actually scored alot of points at home their last 7 homes games. They are averging 38 points per game in those 7 homes games and 34 points per game in their last 5 conference home games. The defense for Cincy has allowed 24 points per game the last 7 homes games and 23 points per game their last 5 home conference games.

The thing that gets me about this game is the total on this game. You have South Flroida that has played under the total the last 4 games and Cincy who has averaged 32 points per game their last 4 games and who has not seen a posted total under 50 all year. Looking at this to me it seems like the books expect S FL to dictate the play of this game. You have a team that has played very low scoring games up against a team that is not use to seeing this low of a total and has played solid offense this year. I have to believe that the under would be a good play here. We are getting great value also with the total being bet up to 48 already. I do not know if Cincy is a good play since like I said this low total almost makes me think the books expect S FL to play a closer game then expected. With all that being said I have to say my play for Friday nights game will be.

Under 48 S FL and Cincy.

Good Luck everyone!

NFL 10/18 Titans at Jags

Jacksonville +3

Looking at this game I see two teams are coming into this game both 3-2 looking to become 4-2 and stay tied with Houston and Indy in this division. Division games are huge and both of these teams know that going into this one. So why do I like Jacksonville?

The Jags come into this game off of back to back wins where they averaged 34 points per game. Their defense though has to step it up, it has allowed 27 points per game in those two wins. They will not continue to win with a Defense playing that bad. The Jags though have played really well in conference play its last 5 home conference games. This team is averaging 29 points per game in those 5 conference home games but are allowing 26 points per game in those games. They are however 3-1 ATS in their last 4 home conference games as an underdog.

The Titans come into this game off a big win In Dallas last week. The bad thing though for the Titans they are right back on the road again this week now against a division rival in the Jags. It is not easy to be on the road in back to back weeks. The Titans have played very well on the road this year where they are avergaing 32 points per game away from home and they are only allowing 19 points per game away from home and are 2-0 ATS in those 2 games and 2-0 SU. So why are they only a 3 point favorite in this game if they are playing this well on the road? Well did you know that the titans though are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 conference road games as a favorite. They are 1-4 ATS L5 games as a favorite of 3 or less. They only have averaged 13 points per game their last 5 conference road games. They are also allowing 23 points per game in those 5 conference road games. The Titans actually are only 2-6 ATS their last 8 conference games overall.

I actually think this is going to be a good game. I feel that the Jags are going to keep this game close and could even pull off the outright win on this game. The way the Titans are playing in conference as of late and on the road in conference I have to say I feel the Jags are the right play in this game. We are seeing 65% of the bets coming in on the Titans and the line has moved from +3 -110 to +3 -120 on the Titans. IT looks like the bigger money is coming in on the home dog in this one and that is where I am going. Jags +3 for me in this one for 1 unit and I really think it ends up with a score of 23-21 Jags.

NFL Oakland at SF

SF -7. This looks way to easy to take Oakland. An 0-5 team as a touchdown favorite. Come on think about it, is Vegas going to give a gift like this. I looked into this a little bit more and this is what I found and why I like this pick.

The Raiders are not a good road football team. They have really struggled on the road its last six games. They are only averging 13 points per game and allowing 25 points per game. They have given up an avg of 162 rushing yards per game on the road, which looks good for any Frank Gore Fantasy owners. They are however 3-3 ATS their last 6 road games as an underdog but in 2 of those ATS covers they were double digit dogs. Throw in the fact they are off a comeback win against SD a division rival and you have a bad road team who might not have their heads in this game completly.

SF on the other hand needs a win bad. They know this is where it is going to happen. They have played two home games already this year and they were both to two playoff contending teams and lost by only 3 in both of them. So now they play an Oakland team that is not in the same boat as Philly and NO. SF at home it last 6 games has averaged 23 points per game and allowed only 13 points per game.

I really believe SF comes out ready for this game knowing they need a win and they have to get it.They should be able to take out alot of frustration on this raiders team to make up how they have played in their previous 5 games this season. I see a SF win in this game and it should be 27-17 or even 27-13. I just do not see Oakland being all that motivated for this game and I see SF in a need win situation.

Kansas St at Kansas

Let me start by saying that I know Kansas St on paper is the better team but I am not looking for who the better team is I am looking at who is going to cover this line. Alot of people are up in the air on this game and this is what I feel about it.

This is a very interesting game to breakdown. Kansas St comes into this game off a huge loss to Nebraska and would like nothing more then to go on National TV and lay a beating on its inerstate rival. The problem though is Kansas St is a horrible road team. This team is 2-14 Straight up their last 16 road games. (this does not include neutral site games). They are 1-5 ATS the last 6 road games as a favorite. They know in their minds that they got hammered by Nebraksa and want this game big time, but they also know that they have road struggles and it is in their head. The question is though do they press too much trying for a win on the road tonight and get caught off guard by a team in Kansas that Plays pretty good at home but just horrible on the road. Kansas has had an extra week to prepeare for this game, I feel they should be ready to face a struggling road team.

Kansas St on the road in their last 5 conference road games is only averging 19 points per game and has allowed 38 points per game in those 5 conference road games. This team has yet to play a road game this year but last year they only averaged 14 points per game on the road and allowed 33 points per game.

Kansas on the other hand at home their last 5 conference games is averging 23 points per game but allows 36 points per game. Kansas though their last 7 home games has averaged 31 points per game and allowed 27 points per game. This Kansas team was humilated this year at home the first game of the season by North Dakota state, the next game they rebounded and beat G Tech on their home field. They went on to lose by 15 at S Miss and then came home and blew out New Mexico St. They then went to Baylor and got crushed by 48 points. They way it looks they seem to rebound off of bad losses. So can they rebound tonight and beat this Kansas St team?

I truly believe that Kansas can cover this spread tonight. This game looks like it is set up to be a lower scoring game with the total only at 50. So keeping that in Mind I think that either Kansas wins this game outright or they lose it either 23-21 or even 24-21. I am going to wait on this for a little bit and see if this line can get back to 3.5 and then I would take Kansas just in case it ends in a 3 point loss. If not I might just play a half unit on Kansas at +3.

Good Luck Everyone!

10/6 College Football

Tonight we have Wednesday night college football. UAB will travel to take on Central Florida in this Conference USA game. The Opening line for this game tonight is Central Florida -12 and the over under opened at 47. I do see though that the line has moved at some books from Central Florida -12 to -11.5 and other books still have it at -12. The over under line has really moved a lot so far. It has now moved to 49 at most books and some books have it at 48.5.

UAB comes into this game really playing some close football games. This team has won one game by 1 point as a 3.5 point dog and loss 2 games by one point. They took Tennessee to overtime their last time out. They have scored 29 or more points in 3 of their 4 games this season. The one game they did not score more then 29 was on the road at SMU where they only scored 7. Now if they would have not gone to over time with Tennessee then they would have scored less but they did score 6 points of their 29 in overtime against them. The downside for UAB though is they give up a lot of points. They game up 32, 28, 33 and 32. You will not win games giving up over 30 points per game on defense.

Central Florida comes into this game playing good football. I know a lot of people will look at their record and think how they are playing that well, they are 2-2 and one of the wins came against South Dakota a non division 1 school. Well look at their two losses. The two losses that this team has are both to BCS schools. They played both of those teams very tough too. They shut down Russell Wilson of NC State. The kid was only 10 of 30 for 105 yards and 1 touchdown. Now this is not just an average quarterback. We are talking they shut down the quarterback who has the 3rd most passing yards in college football and who has the 2nd most touchdown passes in college football. So that is telling me that this defense is good.

I took a look at how these two teams have done in certain situations. UAB in their last 5 games as an underdog of more then 8 points is averaging 20 points per game and they are allowing 32.4 points per game. Central Florida in their last 5 games as a favorite of 8 or more points is averaging 33 points per game and is only allowing 11.8 points per game. The last 5 conference away games that UAB has played in on the road they have averaged 20.8 points per game and allowed 29.2 points per game. Central Florida in their last 5 conference home games they have averaged 27.8 points per game and have allowed 16.2 points per game.

Vegas made this line pretty much right on for this total. I look at this and I figured that we would see a game that Central Florida wins 30-17. Now since the public has bet this game up to 49 I feel we are getting some good value. It is a Wednesday night game and the public loves to watch high scoring games. Well I think they are way off on this one I think we see this game go under the total and that is what I am going to play tonight. I will make a play on the under tonight for 1 unit.

Tuesday Night 10/5 College Football

Wow what a tough loss to swallow last night! I really feel I was on the correct side last night by playing the under 48 in that game between the Patriots and Dolphins. The Patriots defense made big plays when they had to but their special teams did the damage to make that game go over the total. The first time in history that a team scores a passing touchdown, rushing touchdown, kick return for a touchdown, a blocked punt for a touchdown and an interception for a touchdown. That was a tough one but you have to look past it and see what you have on the table for tonight to invest in. Tonight I am going to move to the college field and take a look into Troy at Mid Tennessee St.
The opening line for this game opened with Mid Tennessee St as a 2.5 point favorite and was bet up to 3.5 at most books but has since come back down to 3 at almost all books. This game is very interesting since Tory has really dominated this Mid Tennessee St. team in recent years. Troy has actually won the past 4 meetings between these two teams and the past three they have won by no less than 14 all in which they were the favorite. So why this year is Mid Tennessee State the favorite? Both of these teams come into this game with 2-2 records and they are both 1-3 ATS. What make this year so much different than the past few years? The readings that I have done a lot of people believe this Troy team has played a tougher schedule already this year compared to Mid Tennessee St. So who will win and cover the spread in this game?
I have seen this numerous times this year where a team that had been dominated by their opponent in years past is either a favorite or a smaller underdog in years past. It is really showing the improvement of these teams. When investing in a game a lot of people look at previous games and look at teams that are bigger name programs then their opponent. This game has the same thing written all over it to me in my eyes. People are going to bet on Troy because they have dominated Mid Tennessee State and since Troy is the big name in the Sun Belt Conference they get more bets on them. Well I am sorry to say but these people are wrong tonight.
Mid Tennessee State is going to bring a fire to this game tonight. These two teams will not just be playing to show who the big dog is in the Sun Belt but they are also playing for the Palladium trophy. Troy has held onto this trophy for the past four years and the seniors on the Mid Tennessee State team want it back before they graduate. They know this is the year they can do it. They are getting their starting quarterback on the field tonight after a 4 game suspension. He would want nothing more than to win this game tonight and get that trophy back in their possession. Tonight is blackout night for Mid Tennessee State also so they will be wearing the black uniforms and all the coaches and fans will be decked out in black. Last year on black out night they won 31-14 against Memphis and they packed their stadium with over 28,000 fans. The crowd is going to be into this game, the players want this game and they want to get the leg up in the Sun Belt along with bringing that Palladium Trophy back home. I say play Mid Tennessee State tonight and watch them take it too Troy tonight. Good Luck Everyone!

The luck arches the closing ozone

Football

Good Luck to everyone on the investing on the upcoming baseball playoffs.

Monday Night Football 10/4

Monday Night Football is here and there is a big game on tap for tonight! The New England Patriots travel to Miami to take on the Dolphins in this AFC East game. The opening line for this game was set at a pick and has since been bet up to Miami -1. The over under for this game opened at 46.5 and has since been bet up to 48 at most books. I am going to break down what I like about the total in this game.
The Patriots come into this game off an 8 point victory over the Bills. The Patriots did score 38 points in that game but they also allowed 30 to a Bills team that is in the bottom of the league in every category just about. Well if you look at the box score you see that one of the Bills touchdowns came from a 95 yard kickoff return. So in all reality the Defense from New England only allowed 23 points last week the special teams gave up those other 7. I also see that Buffalo scored 9 points from field goals. This is telling me that the Patriots defense was able to make big stops against Buffalo to prevent them from anymore touchdowns and allow them to just settle for field goals. This will be the Patriots second road game on the season. The first one was in week 2 when they traveled to NY to take on the Jets in a game they lost 28-14. The struggles look like they are going to continue for the Patriots on the road. They scored only 14 and dating back to last year they only averaged 22 points per game on the road. They were only 2-6 on the road last year straight up and they only saw 2 of their 8 road games go over the posted total.
The Miami Dolphins come into this game off a tough lose to the Jets at home last week. The final score of that game was NY 31 Miami 23. After starting the season 2-0 and only allowing 10 points per game the first two weeks their defense took a step back and allowed 31 to the Jets. Miami really let up their defensive guard in that game and allowed the Jets to push them all over the field giving up big plays to the Jets. Miami’s offense put up 23 points last week against a tough Jets defense but the weeks before that they only scored 14 and 15 points on the Vikings and Bills. In the Vikings game they got a touchdown from their defense also. So the offense really broke open last week for the Dolphins. It was the passing offense though and not the run offense that they would like to have going.
Looking at this over under and seeing that it opened at 46.5 and has since been bet up to 48 I feel that the public believes that these two teams will score points because of all the big play makers on these two teams. Well I do not like the public’s decision on this game this week. The Patriots know they have to step up their defense so their offense does not have to carry them throughout the season. The Dolphins know they cannot give up another week of huge points at home considering they are only averaging 17 points per game this year. If they want to compete in this game their defense is going to have to stop Brady and his offensive weapons. Well how do you stop Brady? You have to keep him off the field. So I think we see the Dolphins really try and push their run game tonight to keep the Patriots high octane offense off the field. The last 10 times these teams have met and the total have only been set higher then 45, 4 times. Three of those four games have gone under the posted total. I really believe we a see a hard close fought game by both defenses and this game should end up somewhere in the range of 23-21 or 23-20. I am playing the under 48 for 1 unit.

Cubs at Reds

Well I ended my two game winning streaks with a bad call yesterday. Those days happen and you just have to move on with your next play. So I am moving on putting that behind us and looking at today’s card. There are a lot of games that I like for today. I had to narrow it down to one game so I think I felt the best one would be the Over 9 in the Cubs and Reds game.

The Cubs are going to send Tom Gorzelanny to the mound tonight to face the Reds Johnny Cueto. Gorzelanny the left hander is 1-2 his last 3 starts with an ERA of 4.66 and a WHIP of 1.55. This guy has had some struggles as of late. He did though have a nice outing his last game against the Braves throwing 7 innings of 1 run ball and having 9 strikeouts. His last 2 outings he has thrown 120 pitches each game that is high for a guy averaging 6 innings per start. This should be very interesting to see how he does after back to back games like that. His last 5 games pitched in Cincinnati he has thrown 24 innings and has allowed 13 earned runs. He has seen the over under in those 5 games be 3-1-1. Johnny Cueto comes into this game pitching horrible. This guy is 1-2 with an ERA of 6.28 and a WHIP of 1.40 his last 3 games. He has only pitched 14.1 innings his last 3 games. Johnny has pitched against the Cubs 3 times in his career in Cincinnati and he has pitched a total of 17 innings allowing a total of 13 earned runs. He has seen the over under for those 3 games being 1-1-1. Johnny has pitched 11 homes game this season he has an ERA of 4.12 at home. The interesting thing though is he has seen 9 of those 11 games go over the posted total. He is getting 5.5 runs per game run support at home this season. He has not seen a game that he pitched at home in go under 9 runs since April 24th. To add on to the pitching misery of these two teams both bullpens have been shelled as of late. The Cubs bullpen has pitched 25 innings their last 3 games and has allowed 20 earned runs. The Reds bullpen is not as bad but has pitched 16.2 innings and has allowed 10 earned runs.

I took a look at how these two teams have been hitting. Both of these teams have been hitting very well lately. The Cubs come into this game averaging 5.6 runs per game their last 5 games. Their last 5 away games they are averaging 6.0 runs per game. The down side though for the Cubs is they are only averaging 3.3 runs per game against the Reds this season. The Reds come into this game averaging 5.8 runs per game their last 5 games. The Reds are averaging 6.8 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against lefties. The Reds are averaging 6.5 runs per game against the Cubs this year. The last 5 games that the Reds have faced a lefty starter they have seen 4 of those 5 games have 9 or more runs scored in them. Another interesting note for this game is that the Cubs have actually hit the ball better in Cincinnati then at home against the Reds this season. The Cubs are averaging 4.7 runs per game in Cincinnati this year against the Reds and at home they are averaging 2.1 per game against the Reds. The Reds are averaging 6.2 runs per game at home against the Cubs this year.

A few situations and trends for this game that I like are as followed. The over is 6-1-1 in the Cubs last 8 games as a road underdog. The over is 10-3-2 in the Cubs last 15 road games. The over is 3-0-1 in the Cubs last 4 road games with a total set at 9-10.5. The over is 10-2-4 in Gorzelanny’s last 16 starts as an underdog. The over is 9-1 in Gorzelanny’s last 10 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more the previous game. The over is 6-2 in the Reds last 8 home games against a left handed starter. The over is 17-6-1 in the Reds last 24 games following a day off. The over is 17-3-2 in Cueto’s last 22 starts as a home favorite. The over is 13-3 in Cueto’s last 16 games against an NL Central opponent. The over is 5-1 in Cueto’s last 6 games with 5 days rest.

We should see both teams continue to keep their bats hot. Both of these pitchers are struggling right now and the bullpens are not at their best right now so we should see runs being put on the score board tonight. I feel this game is going to end up being somewhere nears 10-12 runs scored, maybe a 7-4 game or even a 7-5 game. I am playing the over for 1 unit on this game.

AZ at SD

Well just like I figured the struggles of both the Twins and Rangers hitting against lefties continued last night to get a nice win on the under 8.5 in that game. It now moves us to 3-4 the past 7 games and has me at -.15 units in those 7 games. Today it is time to get us out of the negative and up into the positive in units. I am going to break down why I like the San Diego Padres RL -1.5 +130 tonight.
Tonight Arizona will send Ian Kennedy to the mound to face Kevin Correia of the Padres in this NL West Division matchup. Ian Kennedy comes into this game with a 1-0 record in his last 3 starts. His team is 3-0 in those starts. He has an ERA of 4.58 and a WHIP of 1.39. Kevin Correia comes into this game going 2-1 in his last three starts and his team is 2-1 in those starts. He has an ERA of 4.86 and a WHIP of 1.32. These two pitchers look evenly matched by how they have been pitching the past few games. Well I dug a little bit deeper and I have found that the last 3 starts Correia has had at home against Arizona his team is 2-1 and he has only allowed 5 earned runs in those three starts. Kennedy has only pitched twice in his career against the Padres and he has allowed a total of 3 earned runs in those 2 games. Looking at that against I see nothing that is really jumping out at me to like one pitcher more than the other. So I decided I would look at the bullpens since Correia is averaging 5.5 innings per start and Kennedy is averaging 6 innings per start. We will see some bullpen work from both teams. Well that does not help Arizona. Arizona’s bullpen has a WHIP of 1.44 and an ERA of 4.47 on the year, on the road this year they have an ERA of 6.37 and a WHIP of 1.83. The Padres bullpen on the other hand has an ERA of 2.17 and a WHIP of 0.93. The Padres bullpen at home this year has an ERA of 2.41 and a WHIP of 0.94.
Well I decided I have to look at how these two teams have been hitting so far as of late. Arizona comes into this game hitting the ball horrible. They are averaging 2 runs per game their last 5 games. They are only averaging 3.4 runs per game their last 5 games on the road. They are even struggling against right-handers as of now only averaging 1.8 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against righties. To top it all off they are averaging only 3 runs per game this year against the Padres and only 2.7 runs per game this year in San Diego. The Padres come into this game just on fire. They are averaging 6.4 runs per game their last 5 games. They are also averaging 5.8 runs per game their last 5 home games. This team is even hitting righties pretty solid, they are averaging 5 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against righties. The Padres are averaging 6 runs per game against Arizona this year and are averaging 8 runs per game at home against Arizona this year.
So I looked at some trends and situations for this game and I have found some interesting ones. The Padres are 13-3 in their last 16 games. In those 13 wins they have won by 2 or more runs in 11 of those games. The Padres are 8-0 at home this year against Arizona. All 8 of those wins have been by 2 or more runs. The Diamondbacks are 3-7 in their last 10 games. In those 7 losses 6 of them have been by 2 runs or more. The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 16 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. The Diamondbacks are 1-5 in their last games following a loss. The Diamondbacks are 1-4 in Kennedy’s last 5 road starts against a team with a winning record. The Padres are 12-2 in their last 14 games when their opponent allows 5 or more runs the previous game. The Padres are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a win. The Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a right handed starter. The Padres are 6-1 in Correia’s last 7 starts as a favorite. The Padres are 6-1 in Correia’s last 7 starts against a team with a losing record.
The Padres should continue to dominate this team on their home field. A struggling Arizona team going on the road to play the Top team in the NL is not going to be an easy task. I really think that we will see the Padres get another win against this team at home this year and it should end up being a score in the area of 5-2 or maybe even 6-3.

Twins at Rangers

The A’s come through for us last night moving us to 2-4 the last two days being down 1.15 units. I plan on making that negative units go away and get into the positive here over the next few days with some solid baseball plays. For today I am going to break down why I like the Twins and Rangers to go under the total of 8.5 tonight.

The Twins will send lefty Brian Duensing to the mound tonight to face lefty C.J. Wilson of the Rangers. Brian Duensing comes into this game on fire. He is 3-0 with a WHIP of 0.86 and an ERA of 1.48 his last 3 games. He is averaging 8 innings per game those 3 games allowing a total of 19 hits with 2 walks and 1 homerun. Since becoming a starter Duensing has not allowed more then 3 runs in any of the 6 starts he has started in. The funny thing though is C.J. Wilson comes into this game even hotter then Duensing. Wilson is 3-0 with a WHIP of 0.78 and an ERA of 1.25 his last 3 starts. This guy is averaging almost 7 innings per start in those three games allowing only a total of 12 hits with 5 walks and 0 homeruns. I know both starters are pitching well so I decided if I am playing an under how are the bullpens doing for these two teams. The Twins bullpen has allowed 6 earned runs in 14.2 innings pitched its last 3 games. The Rangers bullpen does them one up and has allowed 4 earned runs in 13 innings pitched its last 3 games. I felt that this is not enough info for the pitching in this game. So I looked at how the bullpens have faired in the 5 games that these two teams have played already this year. Well I see that the Twins bullpen has pitched a total of 8.1 innings against Texas this year allowing only 1 earned run. I see that Texas’s bullpen has pitched 16 innings against the Twins this year and has allowed 6 earned runs. But 3 of the earned runs came off a guy who is not on Texas’s roster as of now. So we have seen these bullpens pitch very well against each other this year.

Since baseball is not all pitching I wanted to see how these two teams have been doing hitting the ball as of late. The Twins comes into this game struggling right now to score runs. They are averaging 3.4 runs per game their last 5 games. Texas comes into this game doing a little bit better but down from there yearly average. They are only averaging 4.4 runs per game their last 5 games. Looking at the last 5 games was not enough for me. I wanted to see how these teams have been doing against left handed pitching since they both will be facing a lefty tonight. The Twins come into this game really struggling against left-handed pitching as of late. They are averaging 0 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against lefties. In that span they are only batting .158 off of these lefties that they have faced. Texas comes into this game struggling itself against lefties. They are averaging 0.8 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against lefties. They are batting only .250 in these games.

I always like to see how the trends and situations for a game look. The under is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 road games against a team with a home winning % above .600. The under is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 games as a road underdog. The under is 6-2-3 in the Twins last 11 road games against a left-handed starter. The under is 21-6-1 in the Rangers last 28 games against a starter with a WHIP less then 1.15. The under is 5-2 in the Rangers last 7 home games against a left-handed starter. The under is 10-4-1 in the Rangers last 15 games as a home favorite. The under is 12-4-1 in the Rangers last 17 homes games against a team with a winning record.

A lot of bettors are going to want to take the over since both of these teams do hit the ball very well and the first two games went under so how can a third one between these two heavy hitting teams go under. But we get two very hot starters tonight in this game. We get two bullpens that have pitched well as of late and even against each other this year. The two offensives have been struggling as of late scoring runs and have really struggled against left handed pitching also as of late. There are some strong situations and trends that look good for this game. Looking at all this and I have to make a play on the under 8.5 in this game tonight.

A's at Indians

I do not know what to say. I guess it is my time for a string of bad luck to go my way. The Pirates starter admitted he never was able to get loose last night so he goes out anyway and hurt us in the long run by only pitching to two batters and then coming out. Well I guess this is the way it goes in my world. Investing in general is tough but investing in sports is even tougher. Well I am 1-3 the past 4 days being down 2.15 units is not how I wanted it. So today I have found a game that should get us a win. I really feel that this is a solid play and I will break down why I like the A’s ML -105 tonight against the Indians.
The A’s are going to send Gio Gonzalez to the mound tonight against the Indians who are sending Fausto Carmona to the mound. Gio Gonzalez comes into this game on fire as of late. He has an ERA of 1.35 and a WHIP of 1.00 his last 3 games. His record in those games is 1-1 and his team is 2-1. He has pitched a total of 20 innings in those 3 games and has only allowed a total of 3 earned runs to go along with 9 hits only. He has done all this against some of the best offenses in MLB (Twins, Texas and Toronto). I dug into his stats against the Indians and this guy is outstanding against them. His team is 4-0 and he has pitched a total of 23 1/3 innings in those 4 games allowing only 3 earned runs. I look at how Fausto Carmona is doing and I see he is 0-3 in his last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.87 and a WHIP of 1.64. This guy has gotten hit very hard as of late. He has given up 5 or more runs in 3 of his last 5 games. I decided I have to see how he pitched against Oakland in previous games. I see that in his last 5 outings his team is 2-3 and he has pitched 29 1/3 innings against them allowing 15 earned runs in those games. So I took a look at how the bullpens for these two teams have done so far. I see that Oakland’s bullpen has an ERA of 3.47 and a WHIP of 1.30 on the season. The Indians bullpen has an ERA of 3.80 and a WHIP of 1.39 on the season.
I took a look at how the hitting of these two teams has been so far and I see that the A’s are averaging 4.0 runs per game their last 5 games. The downside for the A’s though is they have struggled to hit on the road as of late. They are only averaging 2 runs per game their last 5 road games. The Indians on the other hand are averaging only 3.4 runs per game their last 5 games and only averaging 3.8 runs per game their last 5 home games. I did not feel that gave us enough info on this game so I decided to look at how they have done against each other this season. These two teams have played 6 games so far this season and I see the A’s have averaged 5.3 runs per game in those 6 games. The Indians have only averaged 2 runs per game in those 6 games. The Indians have actually been shutout in 3 of those 6 games. They seem to have problems with the A’s pitching. So what I did was took a look at how the bullpens have done against these teams hitters. The A’s bullpen has pitched 15 innings against the Indians this year and has given up 6 earned runs. The funny thing though is that 5 of the earned runs came off of two pitchers who are no longer with the A’s. The Indians bullpen has pitched 18.1 innings against the A’s this year allowing 6 earned runs.
I always say I like to look at some trends and situations that teams are in for the game I am investing in. The A’s are 6-1 in their last 7 starts against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The A’s are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road favorite. The A’s are 11-1 in Gonzalez’s last 12 starts as a favorite. The A’s are 6-1 in Gonzalez’s last 7 starts against a team with a losing record. The Indians are 9-20 in their last 29 home games against a left-handed starter. The Indians are 3-7 in their last 10 as a home underdog. The Indians are 1-5 in their last 6 against a team with a losing record. The Indians are 5-15 in their last 20 games following a day off.
I look at how hot Gio Gonzalez has been. I see that Fausto Carmona has been ice cold as of late. I took notice that the Indians have really struggled to score runs on this A’s pitching staff this season. In the situations and trends I see the A’s step it up against weaker teams while the Indians play down to teams levels. Looking at all this stuff I have to make a play on the A’s in this game. Taking a road favorite is not always the best move in baseball but the A’s have showed as of late why they are road favorites by posting that mark of 4-1 in those last 5 road games as a favorite. I will play 1 unit on the A’s ML today.

Cardinals at Pirates

Well what can I say besides I made a bad call on the over in the Twins Angels game yesterday? I just have to put that behind us and move on to today’s games and see what I have on tap. I have looked over the card for today’s games and I have found a play that I really like and I will make a play on this game. I am going to break down why I like the Pirates ML at +112.
I know a lot of people are going to say how in the world you could actually like the Pirates ML in a game. Well the big thing is, in baseball handicapping you have to play underdogs if you plan on making any money. There is no way in the world you are going to make money betting on favorite’s day in and day out. Every top notch team will lose at least 60 games if not more. This is one of those spots I feel we get value on an underdog.
The Cardinals are going to send Kyle Lohse to the mound tonight to face the Pirates Ross Ohlendorf. Kyle Lohse has pitched horrible this season. This guy is 1-5 with an ERA of 6.79 and a WHIP of 1.77. His last 3 starts he is 1-2 with an ERA of 10.22 and a WHIP of 2.03. This guy has pitched only 13 innings on the road this year and has given up 14 earned runs. Those are just horrible numbers. Ross Ohlendorf does not look like the greatest pitcher either. He is 1-10 with an ERA of 3.90 and a WHIP of 1.37. His last 3 outings he has actually are real solid. He has an ERA of 1.74 and a WHIP of 0.82 even though he is 0-1 in those games. To me it just does not look like the Pirates give this guy any run support. He has seen 8 of his last 10 games go under the total. The reason why the two went over the total the Pirates plated 12 and 8 runs in those games giving some run support. I dug a little bit deeper in this pitching matchup and I see that Ohlendorf has pitched twice at home against the Cardinals in his career and his team is 1-1 in those two games. He has thrown 14 innings in those two games and only allowed 1 earned run with 1 walk and 16 strikeouts. That is very impressive numbers for him at home against the Cardinals. Kyle Lohse has pitched twice in Pittsburgh and his teams are 1-1 and he has pitched 13 2/3 innings allowing 4 earned runs with 4 walks and 10 strikeouts.
So I looked at how these two teams come into this game hitting the ball. I see that the Cardinals are actually below average the past 5 games then what they are on the regular season. The past 5 games they have been averaging 4.2 runs per game and on the season they are averaging 4.6 runs per game. The Pirates come into this game not hitting the ball at all. They are only averaging 1.8 runs per game their last 5 games. This season they are only averaging 1.8 runs per game against the Cardinals in the 6 games they have played. The Pirates have not scored more than 4 runs in any contest with the Cardinals this season. I actually looked a little bit deeper and see the Pirates have only scored more than 3 runs once in their last 10 games. This team is really struggling to end a hitting slump.
Every baseball handicapper knows that pitching is a huge reason on how lines are set for baseball games. So in this game we get a horrible pitcher in Lohse who is on a good team going up against a subpar pitcher who has not gotten any run support this year. Of course you are going to see the Cardinals favored in this game since they are a much better team. But that is where handicapping a game comes into play and you have to find the advantage of one of the teams. I am going to take my chances and play the Pirates ML just because I feel they will get to Kyle Lohse in this game and end the streak of games where they have not gotten more than 2 runs. The Cardinals can hit but they are facing a pitcher who is very hot right now and his team should actually get him some run support against a below average pitcher.

Angels at Twins

Well we lost the under on that Houston Florida game last night thanks to plenty of errors by Houston that allowed Florida to score runs they should not have gotten. We put that behind us and move onto today’s games and see what I have on tap. Well I am going to break down why I like the Angels and Twins over the total of 8 today.

The Angels are going to send Jered Weaver to the hill tonight in Minnesota to face Scott Baker from the Twins. Jered Weaver comes into this game not pitching his best as of late. He has an ERA of 4.05 and a WHIP of 1.15 his last 3 games. I looked a little bit deeper on Jered Weaver and see that this guy has been on fire with his games he starts going under the total. He has seen 9 of his last 10 go under the total. He has seen only 8 games go over the total that he has started in this year. His over under mark is 8-16. So I am sure people want to ask why I like the over then with how many of his games go under. Well he has seen all 8 of his overs on the road this year. His over under mark on the road is 8-5. This guy does not pitch anywhere near as solid on the road as he does at home. His road ERA is 4.44 while his home ERA is 1.65. He has given up 20 Earned runs his last 5 road starts for an average of 4 per game. Jered Weaver is also averaging 3.7 runs per game his last 3 games against the Twins. Scott Baker comes into this game with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.18 his last 3 games. When I dug into Baker’s stats a little bit more again I see a guy who has only seen 4 over’s in his last 10 games. So again why would I like the over? Well his over under mark on the year is 11-8 and it is 6-4 at home this season. He has a 4.73 ERA at home this year. He is allowing an average of 2.3 runs per game his last 3 starts against the Angels. Both Teams bullpens are not at its best right now. They are both allowing an average of 2.3 runs per game their last 3 games.

I took a look at how these two teams are hitting the ball right now and I see two teams that are scoring runs. The Angels come into this game averaging 4.6 runs per game their last 5 games and 5 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against righties. The Angels are also averaging 4.8 runs per game on the road this season. The Twins enter this game averaging 4.8 runs per game their last 5 games and is averaging 6 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against righties. You have a pitcher in Weaver who struggles on the road going up against a hot hitting team right now. To me that does not look well for Jered Weaver tonight. To me it seems these two teams hit each other very well also. The Angels are averaging 3.8 runs per game against the Twins this season while the Twins are averaging 5.8 runs per game against the Angels this season.

I always like to look at some trends and situations for a game with the two teams involved. Tonight I see an umpire in this game that has an average of 10.2 runs per game that he umpires in. His last 8 games he has umpired in he has seen 6 of those 8 games go over the posted total. The over is 5-2 in the Angels last 7 games as a road underdog. The over is 5-1 in the Angels last 6 road games against an opponent with a home winning % greater then .600. The over is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 homes games as a favorite. The over is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 when their opponent scores 5 or more the previous game. The over is 4-0-2 in Baker’s last 6 starts as a favorite. The over is 13-5-1 in Baker’s last 19 home starts with a total of 7-8.5. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meeting in Minnesota. The over is 14-4-3 in the last 21 meetings.

We are going to see a pitcher who gives up runs on the road against a hot hitting team right now. We are going to see a mediocre home pitcher facing a team that scores runs also. Both bullpens should give up a few runs also. I really feel we are going to see a game with a final of about 10 runs. I think we are getting great value in this game due to both pitchers have a run of games playing under the total and with Jered Weaver in this game you would think under since he is a solid pitcher. To me I will play the over 8 runs in this Sunday night game for 1 unit.

Astros at Marlins

Well the Mariners and Yankees come through for us going under the total of 8 runs. I did not think the Yankees would get shut out but it helped keep us under and getting the win is all that counts. So I move on to the games today and I am going to break down why I like Houston and Florida under the total of 8 runs.

Wandy Rodriguez will head to the hill tonight for Houston to face Chris Volstad of the Marlins. Wandy comes into this game on fire his last 3 games. He has an ERA of 1.33 and a WHIP of 1.03 his last 3 games. He has only allowed 3 earned runs in his last 5 games. He is averaging 7 innings per game in those 5 games and he has allowed only 23 total hits in those 5 games for an average of 4.6 hits per game. In those 5 games he has only allowed 1 home run also. Wandy has actually pitched very well against the Marlins his last 5 games. He has allowed only 8 runs in 32 innings of work. Chris Volstad enters this game not even close to as hot as Wandy is. He has an ERA of 6.32 and a WHIP of 1.79. On a brighter note though for Volstad he has allowed only 8 runs in his last 3 homes starts for an average of 2.7 per game. I do see that Volstad is not an inning eater so you will see a lot of the Marlins bullpen which is going to help us for this under. The Marlins bullpen has actually only allowed 3 earned runs their last 3 games while pitching 19 innings. If the Astros do get a few off of Volstad we should see Florida’s bullpen bail him out in this game.

Well Houston comes into this game not hitting the ball well at all as of late. The Astros are only averaging 2 runs per game their last 5 games. They are only averaging 3.4 runs per game their last 5 games on the road. This is what is going to hurt Wandy. His team is only averaging 2.7 runs per game the last 3 starts he has started and only 3.6 runs per game his last 5 starts he started. Florida comes into this game averaging 4.6 runs per game their last 5 games but they are only averaging 4 runs per game their last 5 homes games. The Marlins do give Volstad plenty of run support in the games he pitches. The Marlins are averaging 4.7 runs per game the last 3 games he pitched in and 4.7 run per game the last 5 games he has pitched in.

I always like to take a look and see what trends or situations look interesting for a game that could help feel more comfortable about our play. Well the first one I like tonight is the umpire for this game is Bill Hohn. His over under record this year is 8-15. If you break it down a little more he has seen 3 over and 8 under on games where the total is 8.5 or less. The under is 4-1 in the Astros last 5 games with a total of 7-8.5. The under is 8-3 in Houston’s last 11 games after getting shut out. The under is 20-5-1 in Rodriguez’s last 26 starts when their opponent scores 5 or more runs the previous game. The under is 5-2 in Rodriguez’s last 7 games on 4 days rest. The under is 4-1 in the Marlins last 5 games with a total of 7-8.5. The under is 4-1 in the Marlins last 5 home games against a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in Volstad’s last 6 home starts as a favorite. The under is 6-2 in Volstad’s last 8 starts with 4 days rest. The under is 11-5 in Volsatd’s last 16 games after allowing 2 runs or less their previous game.

I truly believe that Wandy is going to get the best of Florida tonight. He should shut them down just like he has in the past and how he has been doing his past few starts to his opponents. Volstad might get in trouble but I do not see it being too bad since Houston is having problems right now scoring runs. So if he gives up 3 runs then the bullpen will take over and they have been on fire. I do not see Houston scoring more then 1 or 2 off that bullpen. I think Florida will get 2 off of Wandy and they might get 1 off of the bullpen since Wandy will probably throw 7-8 innings. He knows he needs to go deep in the game since his bullpen has blown a few leads this year for him. He wants to end this streak of 3 straight losses against him so this will be it. I think Houston wins this game 4-2 or 4-3. I will play the under 8 for 1 unit.

Seattle at NY

The Mariners will send Felix Hernandez to the mound tonight to face the Yankees AJ Burnett. King Felix comes into this game on fire his last 3 games. He has an ERA of 1.27 with a WHIP of 1.17. The down side for him is that his team is only averaging 1 run per game in his last 3 starts. I know this guy is a stud but you have score him some runs, especially if you have to use your sub par bullpen for an inning or two. AJ Burnett comes into this game struggling as of late. This guy is 0-2 with a 5.49 ERA and a WHIP of 1.27. On a brighter note for AJ though is he has pitched very well his last 2 games out allowing only 4 runs on 10 hits in 15 innings of work. I dug a little bit deeper in this pitching matchup and see that Felix Hernandez’s last 3 starts in New York have gone under the total. When I looked a little more I see that in his last 5 games against the Yankees all five have gone under the posted total and the Yankees are only averaging 1.8 runs per game in those 5 against him. AJ Burnett has not pitched at home against Seattle since his signing with the Yankees. His one game of pitching against Seattle in a Yankees uniform he threw 7 innings of 1 run ball.

These two teams come into this game into this game really hitting the ball well. Seattle enters this game averaging 4.8 runs per game their last 5 games. They are averaging 4.8 their last 5 away games and they are batting .263 in those five games against righties. The Yankees enter tonight’s matchup averaging 5.4 runs per game their last 5 games and 5.6 runs per game their last 5 homes games. The down side for the Yankees is they are only hitting .219 against righties their last 5 games. The Mariners though have seen those numbers inflated due to playing teams with a lack of talent in their pitching staffs. They were scoring runs off of pitchers from Baltimore and Cleveland. Those are two teams that do not have pitching staffs like the Yankees. So I dug a little bit more into these two teams hitting this year and see that Seattle is only averaging 3.4 runs per game this year against the Yankees while the Yankees are only averaging 3.7 runs per game against Seattle this season.

I always like to look trends for games especially ones that are more situational. So I see that the Mariners are 6-1-1 their last 8 against a team with a winning record. The under is 5-1-2 in Hernandez’s last 8 games as a road underdog. The under is 18-6-4 in Hernandez’s last 28 starts against a team with a winning record. King Felix has pitched in 13 road games this season and he has seen only 3 of those game go over 8 runs. The under is 8-1-2 in Burnett’s last 11 home starts against a team with a losing record. (Shows me he steps it up against weak teams) The under is 13-6-2 in Burnett’s last 21 homes starts. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. The under is 5-0 in Hernandez’s last 5 starts against the Yankees.

I truly believe the Mariners bats will cool down here and the Yankees will have their problems hitting King Felix. This game should end up being a Mariners win and I really feel this will be a 4-3 game or even a 4-2 game. I am going to play the Mariners and Yankees under 8 for 1 unit.

Sports Picks

I have not been updating my blog but I am going to get back to doing that. Starting on August 20th I will be back posting picks on games and why I like them. I looked at todays card and I could not find a game that jumped out at me to make me want to lay money on.