Angels at Twins

Well we lost the under on that Houston Florida game last night thanks to plenty of errors by Houston that allowed Florida to score runs they should not have gotten. We put that behind us and move onto today’s games and see what I have on tap. Well I am going to break down why I like the Angels and Twins over the total of 8 today.

The Angels are going to send Jered Weaver to the hill tonight in Minnesota to face Scott Baker from the Twins. Jered Weaver comes into this game not pitching his best as of late. He has an ERA of 4.05 and a WHIP of 1.15 his last 3 games. I looked a little bit deeper on Jered Weaver and see that this guy has been on fire with his games he starts going under the total. He has seen 9 of his last 10 go under the total. He has seen only 8 games go over the total that he has started in this year. His over under mark is 8-16. So I am sure people want to ask why I like the over then with how many of his games go under. Well he has seen all 8 of his overs on the road this year. His over under mark on the road is 8-5. This guy does not pitch anywhere near as solid on the road as he does at home. His road ERA is 4.44 while his home ERA is 1.65. He has given up 20 Earned runs his last 5 road starts for an average of 4 per game. Jered Weaver is also averaging 3.7 runs per game his last 3 games against the Twins. Scott Baker comes into this game with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.18 his last 3 games. When I dug into Baker’s stats a little bit more again I see a guy who has only seen 4 over’s in his last 10 games. So again why would I like the over? Well his over under mark on the year is 11-8 and it is 6-4 at home this season. He has a 4.73 ERA at home this year. He is allowing an average of 2.3 runs per game his last 3 starts against the Angels. Both Teams bullpens are not at its best right now. They are both allowing an average of 2.3 runs per game their last 3 games.

I took a look at how these two teams are hitting the ball right now and I see two teams that are scoring runs. The Angels come into this game averaging 4.6 runs per game their last 5 games and 5 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against righties. The Angels are also averaging 4.8 runs per game on the road this season. The Twins enter this game averaging 4.8 runs per game their last 5 games and is averaging 6 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against righties. You have a pitcher in Weaver who struggles on the road going up against a hot hitting team right now. To me that does not look well for Jered Weaver tonight. To me it seems these two teams hit each other very well also. The Angels are averaging 3.8 runs per game against the Twins this season while the Twins are averaging 5.8 runs per game against the Angels this season.

I always like to look at some trends and situations for a game with the two teams involved. Tonight I see an umpire in this game that has an average of 10.2 runs per game that he umpires in. His last 8 games he has umpired in he has seen 6 of those 8 games go over the posted total. The over is 5-2 in the Angels last 7 games as a road underdog. The over is 5-1 in the Angels last 6 road games against an opponent with a home winning % greater then .600. The over is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 homes games as a favorite. The over is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 when their opponent scores 5 or more the previous game. The over is 4-0-2 in Baker’s last 6 starts as a favorite. The over is 13-5-1 in Baker’s last 19 home starts with a total of 7-8.5. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meeting in Minnesota. The over is 14-4-3 in the last 21 meetings.

We are going to see a pitcher who gives up runs on the road against a hot hitting team right now. We are going to see a mediocre home pitcher facing a team that scores runs also. Both bullpens should give up a few runs also. I really feel we are going to see a game with a final of about 10 runs. I think we are getting great value in this game due to both pitchers have a run of games playing under the total and with Jered Weaver in this game you would think under since he is a solid pitcher. To me I will play the over 8 runs in this Sunday night game for 1 unit.