AZ at SD

Well just like I figured the struggles of both the Twins and Rangers hitting against lefties continued last night to get a nice win on the under 8.5 in that game. It now moves us to 3-4 the past 7 games and has me at -.15 units in those 7 games. Today it is time to get us out of the negative and up into the positive in units. I am going to break down why I like the San Diego Padres RL -1.5 +130 tonight.
Tonight Arizona will send Ian Kennedy to the mound to face Kevin Correia of the Padres in this NL West Division matchup. Ian Kennedy comes into this game with a 1-0 record in his last 3 starts. His team is 3-0 in those starts. He has an ERA of 4.58 and a WHIP of 1.39. Kevin Correia comes into this game going 2-1 in his last three starts and his team is 2-1 in those starts. He has an ERA of 4.86 and a WHIP of 1.32. These two pitchers look evenly matched by how they have been pitching the past few games. Well I dug a little bit deeper and I have found that the last 3 starts Correia has had at home against Arizona his team is 2-1 and he has only allowed 5 earned runs in those three starts. Kennedy has only pitched twice in his career against the Padres and he has allowed a total of 3 earned runs in those 2 games. Looking at that against I see nothing that is really jumping out at me to like one pitcher more than the other. So I decided I would look at the bullpens since Correia is averaging 5.5 innings per start and Kennedy is averaging 6 innings per start. We will see some bullpen work from both teams. Well that does not help Arizona. Arizona’s bullpen has a WHIP of 1.44 and an ERA of 4.47 on the year, on the road this year they have an ERA of 6.37 and a WHIP of 1.83. The Padres bullpen on the other hand has an ERA of 2.17 and a WHIP of 0.93. The Padres bullpen at home this year has an ERA of 2.41 and a WHIP of 0.94.
Well I decided I have to look at how these two teams have been hitting so far as of late. Arizona comes into this game hitting the ball horrible. They are averaging 2 runs per game their last 5 games. They are only averaging 3.4 runs per game their last 5 games on the road. They are even struggling against right-handers as of now only averaging 1.8 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against righties. To top it all off they are averaging only 3 runs per game this year against the Padres and only 2.7 runs per game this year in San Diego. The Padres come into this game just on fire. They are averaging 6.4 runs per game their last 5 games. They are also averaging 5.8 runs per game their last 5 home games. This team is even hitting righties pretty solid, they are averaging 5 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against righties. The Padres are averaging 6 runs per game against Arizona this year and are averaging 8 runs per game at home against Arizona this year.
So I looked at some trends and situations for this game and I have found some interesting ones. The Padres are 13-3 in their last 16 games. In those 13 wins they have won by 2 or more runs in 11 of those games. The Padres are 8-0 at home this year against Arizona. All 8 of those wins have been by 2 or more runs. The Diamondbacks are 3-7 in their last 10 games. In those 7 losses 6 of them have been by 2 runs or more. The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 16 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. The Diamondbacks are 1-5 in their last games following a loss. The Diamondbacks are 1-4 in Kennedy’s last 5 road starts against a team with a winning record. The Padres are 12-2 in their last 14 games when their opponent allows 5 or more runs the previous game. The Padres are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a win. The Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a right handed starter. The Padres are 6-1 in Correia’s last 7 starts as a favorite. The Padres are 6-1 in Correia’s last 7 starts against a team with a losing record.
The Padres should continue to dominate this team on their home field. A struggling Arizona team going on the road to play the Top team in the NL is not going to be an easy task. I really think that we will see the Padres get another win against this team at home this year and it should end up being a score in the area of 5-2 or maybe even 6-3.