The opening line for this game was Cincy -8 and has since been bet down to -7.5. The opening over under for this game was 46 and has been bet up to 48.
South Florida comes into this game playing on the road last week at West Virginia as a 10 point dog in a game they got beat by 14. Now they must go on the road again where they have had their struggles and play Cincy as a 7.5 point dog. South Florida has really struggled on the road their last 8 games. They are only averging 18 points per game away from home and to take it even farther their last 5 conference road games they have only averaged 16 points per game. Their defense has not been anything special either on the road. The last 8 road games their defense has allowed an average of 25 points per game. Their last 5 road conference games they have allowed 28 points per game. South Florida has two wins over Division 1 schools this year and that is Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky. Both of them were at home and those two schools are two of the worst football teams in Div 1 this year. They are 1-10 combined this year them two schools.
Cincy comes into this game with back to back wins against Miami Oh at home as a 19.5 point favorite and then went on the road last week and beat Louisville as a 2.5 points road favorite. Now they are back home against a conference rival as a 7.5 point favorite. Cincy has actually scored alot of points at home their last 7 homes games. They are averging 38 points per game in those 7 homes games and 34 points per game in their last 5 conference home games. The defense for Cincy has allowed 24 points per game the last 7 homes games and 23 points per game their last 5 home conference games.
The thing that gets me about this game is the total on this game. You have South Flroida that has played under the total the last 4 games and Cincy who has averaged 32 points per game their last 4 games and who has not seen a posted total under 50 all year. Looking at this to me it seems like the books expect S FL to dictate the play of this game. You have a team that has played very low scoring games up against a team that is not use to seeing this low of a total and has played solid offense this year. I have to believe that the under would be a good play here. We are getting great value also with the total being bet up to 48 already. I do not know if Cincy is a good play since like I said this low total almost makes me think the books expect S FL to play a closer game then expected. With all that being said I have to say my play for Friday nights game will be.
Under 48 S FL and Cincy.
Good Luck everyone!
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