10/6 College Football

Tonight we have Wednesday night college football. UAB will travel to take on Central Florida in this Conference USA game. The Opening line for this game tonight is Central Florida -12 and the over under opened at 47. I do see though that the line has moved at some books from Central Florida -12 to -11.5 and other books still have it at -12. The over under line has really moved a lot so far. It has now moved to 49 at most books and some books have it at 48.5.

UAB comes into this game really playing some close football games. This team has won one game by 1 point as a 3.5 point dog and loss 2 games by one point. They took Tennessee to overtime their last time out. They have scored 29 or more points in 3 of their 4 games this season. The one game they did not score more then 29 was on the road at SMU where they only scored 7. Now if they would have not gone to over time with Tennessee then they would have scored less but they did score 6 points of their 29 in overtime against them. The downside for UAB though is they give up a lot of points. They game up 32, 28, 33 and 32. You will not win games giving up over 30 points per game on defense.

Central Florida comes into this game playing good football. I know a lot of people will look at their record and think how they are playing that well, they are 2-2 and one of the wins came against South Dakota a non division 1 school. Well look at their two losses. The two losses that this team has are both to BCS schools. They played both of those teams very tough too. They shut down Russell Wilson of NC State. The kid was only 10 of 30 for 105 yards and 1 touchdown. Now this is not just an average quarterback. We are talking they shut down the quarterback who has the 3rd most passing yards in college football and who has the 2nd most touchdown passes in college football. So that is telling me that this defense is good.

I took a look at how these two teams have done in certain situations. UAB in their last 5 games as an underdog of more then 8 points is averaging 20 points per game and they are allowing 32.4 points per game. Central Florida in their last 5 games as a favorite of 8 or more points is averaging 33 points per game and is only allowing 11.8 points per game. The last 5 conference away games that UAB has played in on the road they have averaged 20.8 points per game and allowed 29.2 points per game. Central Florida in their last 5 conference home games they have averaged 27.8 points per game and have allowed 16.2 points per game.

Vegas made this line pretty much right on for this total. I look at this and I figured that we would see a game that Central Florida wins 30-17. Now since the public has bet this game up to 49 I feel we are getting some good value. It is a Wednesday night game and the public loves to watch high scoring games. Well I think they are way off on this one I think we see this game go under the total and that is what I am going to play tonight. I will make a play on the under tonight for 1 unit.