The A’s come through for us last night moving us to 2-4 the last two days being down 1.15 units. I plan on making that negative units go away and get into the positive here over the next few days with some solid baseball plays. For today I am going to break down why I like the Twins and Rangers to go under the total of 8.5 tonight.
The Twins will send lefty Brian Duensing to the mound tonight to face lefty C.J. Wilson of the Rangers. Brian Duensing comes into this game on fire. He is 3-0 with a WHIP of 0.86 and an ERA of 1.48 his last 3 games. He is averaging 8 innings per game those 3 games allowing a total of 19 hits with 2 walks and 1 homerun. Since becoming a starter Duensing has not allowed more then 3 runs in any of the 6 starts he has started in. The funny thing though is C.J. Wilson comes into this game even hotter then Duensing. Wilson is 3-0 with a WHIP of 0.78 and an ERA of 1.25 his last 3 starts. This guy is averaging almost 7 innings per start in those three games allowing only a total of 12 hits with 5 walks and 0 homeruns. I know both starters are pitching well so I decided if I am playing an under how are the bullpens doing for these two teams. The Twins bullpen has allowed 6 earned runs in 14.2 innings pitched its last 3 games. The Rangers bullpen does them one up and has allowed 4 earned runs in 13 innings pitched its last 3 games. I felt that this is not enough info for the pitching in this game. So I looked at how the bullpens have faired in the 5 games that these two teams have played already this year. Well I see that the Twins bullpen has pitched a total of 8.1 innings against Texas this year allowing only 1 earned run. I see that Texas’s bullpen has pitched 16 innings against the Twins this year and has allowed 6 earned runs. But 3 of the earned runs came off a guy who is not on Texas’s roster as of now. So we have seen these bullpens pitch very well against each other this year.
Since baseball is not all pitching I wanted to see how these two teams have been doing hitting the ball as of late. The Twins comes into this game struggling right now to score runs. They are averaging 3.4 runs per game their last 5 games. Texas comes into this game doing a little bit better but down from there yearly average. They are only averaging 4.4 runs per game their last 5 games. Looking at the last 5 games was not enough for me. I wanted to see how these teams have been doing against left handed pitching since they both will be facing a lefty tonight. The Twins come into this game really struggling against left-handed pitching as of late. They are averaging 0 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against lefties. In that span they are only batting .158 off of these lefties that they have faced. Texas comes into this game struggling itself against lefties. They are averaging 0.8 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against lefties. They are batting only .250 in these games.
I always like to see how the trends and situations for a game look. The under is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 road games against a team with a home winning % above .600. The under is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 games as a road underdog. The under is 6-2-3 in the Twins last 11 road games against a left-handed starter. The under is 21-6-1 in the Rangers last 28 games against a starter with a WHIP less then 1.15. The under is 5-2 in the Rangers last 7 home games against a left-handed starter. The under is 10-4-1 in the Rangers last 15 games as a home favorite. The under is 12-4-1 in the Rangers last 17 homes games against a team with a winning record.
A lot of bettors are going to want to take the over since both of these teams do hit the ball very well and the first two games went under so how can a third one between these two heavy hitting teams go under. But we get two very hot starters tonight in this game. We get two bullpens that have pitched well as of late and even against each other this year. The two offensives have been struggling as of late scoring runs and have really struggled against left handed pitching also as of late. There are some strong situations and trends that look good for this game. Looking at all this and I have to make a play on the under 8.5 in this game tonight.
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