Well the Mariners and Yankees come through for us going under the total of 8 runs. I did not think the Yankees would get shut out but it helped keep us under and getting the win is all that counts. So I move on to the games today and I am going to break down why I like Houston and Florida under the total of 8 runs.
Wandy Rodriguez will head to the hill tonight for Houston to face Chris Volstad of the Marlins. Wandy comes into this game on fire his last 3 games. He has an ERA of 1.33 and a WHIP of 1.03 his last 3 games. He has only allowed 3 earned runs in his last 5 games. He is averaging 7 innings per game in those 5 games and he has allowed only 23 total hits in those 5 games for an average of 4.6 hits per game. In those 5 games he has only allowed 1 home run also. Wandy has actually pitched very well against the Marlins his last 5 games. He has allowed only 8 runs in 32 innings of work. Chris Volstad enters this game not even close to as hot as Wandy is. He has an ERA of 6.32 and a WHIP of 1.79. On a brighter note though for Volstad he has allowed only 8 runs in his last 3 homes starts for an average of 2.7 per game. I do see that Volstad is not an inning eater so you will see a lot of the Marlins bullpen which is going to help us for this under. The Marlins bullpen has actually only allowed 3 earned runs their last 3 games while pitching 19 innings. If the Astros do get a few off of Volstad we should see Florida’s bullpen bail him out in this game.
Well Houston comes into this game not hitting the ball well at all as of late. The Astros are only averaging 2 runs per game their last 5 games. They are only averaging 3.4 runs per game their last 5 games on the road. This is what is going to hurt Wandy. His team is only averaging 2.7 runs per game the last 3 starts he has started and only 3.6 runs per game his last 5 starts he started. Florida comes into this game averaging 4.6 runs per game their last 5 games but they are only averaging 4 runs per game their last 5 homes games. The Marlins do give Volstad plenty of run support in the games he pitches. The Marlins are averaging 4.7 runs per game the last 3 games he pitched in and 4.7 run per game the last 5 games he has pitched in.
I always like to take a look and see what trends or situations look interesting for a game that could help feel more comfortable about our play. Well the first one I like tonight is the umpire for this game is Bill Hohn. His over under record this year is 8-15. If you break it down a little more he has seen 3 over and 8 under on games where the total is 8.5 or less. The under is 4-1 in the Astros last 5 games with a total of 7-8.5. The under is 8-3 in Houston’s last 11 games after getting shut out. The under is 20-5-1 in Rodriguez’s last 26 starts when their opponent scores 5 or more runs the previous game. The under is 5-2 in Rodriguez’s last 7 games on 4 days rest. The under is 4-1 in the Marlins last 5 games with a total of 7-8.5. The under is 4-1 in the Marlins last 5 home games against a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in Volstad’s last 6 home starts as a favorite. The under is 6-2 in Volstad’s last 8 starts with 4 days rest. The under is 11-5 in Volsatd’s last 16 games after allowing 2 runs or less their previous game.
I truly believe that Wandy is going to get the best of Florida tonight. He should shut them down just like he has in the past and how he has been doing his past few starts to his opponents. Volstad might get in trouble but I do not see it being too bad since Houston is having problems right now scoring runs. So if he gives up 3 runs then the bullpen will take over and they have been on fire. I do not see Houston scoring more then 1 or 2 off that bullpen. I think Florida will get 2 off of Wandy and they might get 1 off of the bullpen since Wandy will probably throw 7-8 innings. He knows he needs to go deep in the game since his bullpen has blown a few leads this year for him. He wants to end this streak of 3 straight losses against him so this will be it. I think Houston wins this game 4-2 or 4-3. I will play the under 8 for 1 unit.
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