Well I ended my two game winning streaks with a bad call yesterday. Those days happen and you just have to move on with your next play. So I am moving on putting that behind us and looking at today’s card. There are a lot of games that I like for today. I had to narrow it down to one game so I think I felt the best one would be the Over 9 in the Cubs and Reds game.
The Cubs are going to send Tom Gorzelanny to the mound tonight to face the Reds Johnny Cueto. Gorzelanny the left hander is 1-2 his last 3 starts with an ERA of 4.66 and a WHIP of 1.55. This guy has had some struggles as of late. He did though have a nice outing his last game against the Braves throwing 7 innings of 1 run ball and having 9 strikeouts. His last 2 outings he has thrown 120 pitches each game that is high for a guy averaging 6 innings per start. This should be very interesting to see how he does after back to back games like that. His last 5 games pitched in Cincinnati he has thrown 24 innings and has allowed 13 earned runs. He has seen the over under in those 5 games be 3-1-1. Johnny Cueto comes into this game pitching horrible. This guy is 1-2 with an ERA of 6.28 and a WHIP of 1.40 his last 3 games. He has only pitched 14.1 innings his last 3 games. Johnny has pitched against the Cubs 3 times in his career in Cincinnati and he has pitched a total of 17 innings allowing a total of 13 earned runs. He has seen the over under for those 3 games being 1-1-1. Johnny has pitched 11 homes game this season he has an ERA of 4.12 at home. The interesting thing though is he has seen 9 of those 11 games go over the posted total. He is getting 5.5 runs per game run support at home this season. He has not seen a game that he pitched at home in go under 9 runs since April 24th. To add on to the pitching misery of these two teams both bullpens have been shelled as of late. The Cubs bullpen has pitched 25 innings their last 3 games and has allowed 20 earned runs. The Reds bullpen is not as bad but has pitched 16.2 innings and has allowed 10 earned runs.
I took a look at how these two teams have been hitting. Both of these teams have been hitting very well lately. The Cubs come into this game averaging 5.6 runs per game their last 5 games. Their last 5 away games they are averaging 6.0 runs per game. The down side though for the Cubs is they are only averaging 3.3 runs per game against the Reds this season. The Reds come into this game averaging 5.8 runs per game their last 5 games. The Reds are averaging 6.8 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against lefties. The Reds are averaging 6.5 runs per game against the Cubs this year. The last 5 games that the Reds have faced a lefty starter they have seen 4 of those 5 games have 9 or more runs scored in them. Another interesting note for this game is that the Cubs have actually hit the ball better in Cincinnati then at home against the Reds this season. The Cubs are averaging 4.7 runs per game in Cincinnati this year against the Reds and at home they are averaging 2.1 per game against the Reds. The Reds are averaging 6.2 runs per game at home against the Cubs this year.
A few situations and trends for this game that I like are as followed. The over is 6-1-1 in the Cubs last 8 games as a road underdog. The over is 10-3-2 in the Cubs last 15 road games. The over is 3-0-1 in the Cubs last 4 road games with a total set at 9-10.5. The over is 10-2-4 in Gorzelanny’s last 16 starts as an underdog. The over is 9-1 in Gorzelanny’s last 10 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more the previous game. The over is 6-2 in the Reds last 8 home games against a left handed starter. The over is 17-6-1 in the Reds last 24 games following a day off. The over is 17-3-2 in Cueto’s last 22 starts as a home favorite. The over is 13-3 in Cueto’s last 16 games against an NL Central opponent. The over is 5-1 in Cueto’s last 6 games with 5 days rest.
We should see both teams continue to keep their bats hot. Both of these pitchers are struggling right now and the bullpens are not at their best right now so we should see runs being put on the score board tonight. I feel this game is going to end up being somewhere nears 10-12 runs scored, maybe a 7-4 game or even a 7-5 game. I am playing the over for 1 unit on this game.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Thursday, August 26, 2010
AZ at SD
Well just like I figured the struggles of both the Twins and Rangers hitting against lefties continued last night to get a nice win on the under 8.5 in that game. It now moves us to 3-4 the past 7 games and has me at -.15 units in those 7 games. Today it is time to get us out of the negative and up into the positive in units. I am going to break down why I like the San Diego Padres RL -1.5 +130 tonight.
Tonight Arizona will send Ian Kennedy to the mound to face Kevin Correia of the Padres in this NL West Division matchup. Ian Kennedy comes into this game with a 1-0 record in his last 3 starts. His team is 3-0 in those starts. He has an ERA of 4.58 and a WHIP of 1.39. Kevin Correia comes into this game going 2-1 in his last three starts and his team is 2-1 in those starts. He has an ERA of 4.86 and a WHIP of 1.32. These two pitchers look evenly matched by how they have been pitching the past few games. Well I dug a little bit deeper and I have found that the last 3 starts Correia has had at home against Arizona his team is 2-1 and he has only allowed 5 earned runs in those three starts. Kennedy has only pitched twice in his career against the Padres and he has allowed a total of 3 earned runs in those 2 games. Looking at that against I see nothing that is really jumping out at me to like one pitcher more than the other. So I decided I would look at the bullpens since Correia is averaging 5.5 innings per start and Kennedy is averaging 6 innings per start. We will see some bullpen work from both teams. Well that does not help Arizona. Arizona’s bullpen has a WHIP of 1.44 and an ERA of 4.47 on the year, on the road this year they have an ERA of 6.37 and a WHIP of 1.83. The Padres bullpen on the other hand has an ERA of 2.17 and a WHIP of 0.93. The Padres bullpen at home this year has an ERA of 2.41 and a WHIP of 0.94.
Well I decided I have to look at how these two teams have been hitting so far as of late. Arizona comes into this game hitting the ball horrible. They are averaging 2 runs per game their last 5 games. They are only averaging 3.4 runs per game their last 5 games on the road. They are even struggling against right-handers as of now only averaging 1.8 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against righties. To top it all off they are averaging only 3 runs per game this year against the Padres and only 2.7 runs per game this year in San Diego. The Padres come into this game just on fire. They are averaging 6.4 runs per game their last 5 games. They are also averaging 5.8 runs per game their last 5 home games. This team is even hitting righties pretty solid, they are averaging 5 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against righties. The Padres are averaging 6 runs per game against Arizona this year and are averaging 8 runs per game at home against Arizona this year.
So I looked at some trends and situations for this game and I have found some interesting ones. The Padres are 13-3 in their last 16 games. In those 13 wins they have won by 2 or more runs in 11 of those games. The Padres are 8-0 at home this year against Arizona. All 8 of those wins have been by 2 or more runs. The Diamondbacks are 3-7 in their last 10 games. In those 7 losses 6 of them have been by 2 runs or more. The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 16 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. The Diamondbacks are 1-5 in their last games following a loss. The Diamondbacks are 1-4 in Kennedy’s last 5 road starts against a team with a winning record. The Padres are 12-2 in their last 14 games when their opponent allows 5 or more runs the previous game. The Padres are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a win. The Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a right handed starter. The Padres are 6-1 in Correia’s last 7 starts as a favorite. The Padres are 6-1 in Correia’s last 7 starts against a team with a losing record.
The Padres should continue to dominate this team on their home field. A struggling Arizona team going on the road to play the Top team in the NL is not going to be an easy task. I really think that we will see the Padres get another win against this team at home this year and it should end up being a score in the area of 5-2 or maybe even 6-3.
Tonight Arizona will send Ian Kennedy to the mound to face Kevin Correia of the Padres in this NL West Division matchup. Ian Kennedy comes into this game with a 1-0 record in his last 3 starts. His team is 3-0 in those starts. He has an ERA of 4.58 and a WHIP of 1.39. Kevin Correia comes into this game going 2-1 in his last three starts and his team is 2-1 in those starts. He has an ERA of 4.86 and a WHIP of 1.32. These two pitchers look evenly matched by how they have been pitching the past few games. Well I dug a little bit deeper and I have found that the last 3 starts Correia has had at home against Arizona his team is 2-1 and he has only allowed 5 earned runs in those three starts. Kennedy has only pitched twice in his career against the Padres and he has allowed a total of 3 earned runs in those 2 games. Looking at that against I see nothing that is really jumping out at me to like one pitcher more than the other. So I decided I would look at the bullpens since Correia is averaging 5.5 innings per start and Kennedy is averaging 6 innings per start. We will see some bullpen work from both teams. Well that does not help Arizona. Arizona’s bullpen has a WHIP of 1.44 and an ERA of 4.47 on the year, on the road this year they have an ERA of 6.37 and a WHIP of 1.83. The Padres bullpen on the other hand has an ERA of 2.17 and a WHIP of 0.93. The Padres bullpen at home this year has an ERA of 2.41 and a WHIP of 0.94.
Well I decided I have to look at how these two teams have been hitting so far as of late. Arizona comes into this game hitting the ball horrible. They are averaging 2 runs per game their last 5 games. They are only averaging 3.4 runs per game their last 5 games on the road. They are even struggling against right-handers as of now only averaging 1.8 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against righties. To top it all off they are averaging only 3 runs per game this year against the Padres and only 2.7 runs per game this year in San Diego. The Padres come into this game just on fire. They are averaging 6.4 runs per game their last 5 games. They are also averaging 5.8 runs per game their last 5 home games. This team is even hitting righties pretty solid, they are averaging 5 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against righties. The Padres are averaging 6 runs per game against Arizona this year and are averaging 8 runs per game at home against Arizona this year.
So I looked at some trends and situations for this game and I have found some interesting ones. The Padres are 13-3 in their last 16 games. In those 13 wins they have won by 2 or more runs in 11 of those games. The Padres are 8-0 at home this year against Arizona. All 8 of those wins have been by 2 or more runs. The Diamondbacks are 3-7 in their last 10 games. In those 7 losses 6 of them have been by 2 runs or more. The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 16 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. The Diamondbacks are 1-5 in their last games following a loss. The Diamondbacks are 1-4 in Kennedy’s last 5 road starts against a team with a winning record. The Padres are 12-2 in their last 14 games when their opponent allows 5 or more runs the previous game. The Padres are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a win. The Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a right handed starter. The Padres are 6-1 in Correia’s last 7 starts as a favorite. The Padres are 6-1 in Correia’s last 7 starts against a team with a losing record.
The Padres should continue to dominate this team on their home field. A struggling Arizona team going on the road to play the Top team in the NL is not going to be an easy task. I really think that we will see the Padres get another win against this team at home this year and it should end up being a score in the area of 5-2 or maybe even 6-3.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Twins at Rangers
The A’s come through for us last night moving us to 2-4 the last two days being down 1.15 units. I plan on making that negative units go away and get into the positive here over the next few days with some solid baseball plays. For today I am going to break down why I like the Twins and Rangers to go under the total of 8.5 tonight.
The Twins will send lefty Brian Duensing to the mound tonight to face lefty C.J. Wilson of the Rangers. Brian Duensing comes into this game on fire. He is 3-0 with a WHIP of 0.86 and an ERA of 1.48 his last 3 games. He is averaging 8 innings per game those 3 games allowing a total of 19 hits with 2 walks and 1 homerun. Since becoming a starter Duensing has not allowed more then 3 runs in any of the 6 starts he has started in. The funny thing though is C.J. Wilson comes into this game even hotter then Duensing. Wilson is 3-0 with a WHIP of 0.78 and an ERA of 1.25 his last 3 starts. This guy is averaging almost 7 innings per start in those three games allowing only a total of 12 hits with 5 walks and 0 homeruns. I know both starters are pitching well so I decided if I am playing an under how are the bullpens doing for these two teams. The Twins bullpen has allowed 6 earned runs in 14.2 innings pitched its last 3 games. The Rangers bullpen does them one up and has allowed 4 earned runs in 13 innings pitched its last 3 games. I felt that this is not enough info for the pitching in this game. So I looked at how the bullpens have faired in the 5 games that these two teams have played already this year. Well I see that the Twins bullpen has pitched a total of 8.1 innings against Texas this year allowing only 1 earned run. I see that Texas’s bullpen has pitched 16 innings against the Twins this year and has allowed 6 earned runs. But 3 of the earned runs came off a guy who is not on Texas’s roster as of now. So we have seen these bullpens pitch very well against each other this year.
Since baseball is not all pitching I wanted to see how these two teams have been doing hitting the ball as of late. The Twins comes into this game struggling right now to score runs. They are averaging 3.4 runs per game their last 5 games. Texas comes into this game doing a little bit better but down from there yearly average. They are only averaging 4.4 runs per game their last 5 games. Looking at the last 5 games was not enough for me. I wanted to see how these teams have been doing against left handed pitching since they both will be facing a lefty tonight. The Twins come into this game really struggling against left-handed pitching as of late. They are averaging 0 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against lefties. In that span they are only batting .158 off of these lefties that they have faced. Texas comes into this game struggling itself against lefties. They are averaging 0.8 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against lefties. They are batting only .250 in these games.
I always like to see how the trends and situations for a game look. The under is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 road games against a team with a home winning % above .600. The under is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 games as a road underdog. The under is 6-2-3 in the Twins last 11 road games against a left-handed starter. The under is 21-6-1 in the Rangers last 28 games against a starter with a WHIP less then 1.15. The under is 5-2 in the Rangers last 7 home games against a left-handed starter. The under is 10-4-1 in the Rangers last 15 games as a home favorite. The under is 12-4-1 in the Rangers last 17 homes games against a team with a winning record.
A lot of bettors are going to want to take the over since both of these teams do hit the ball very well and the first two games went under so how can a third one between these two heavy hitting teams go under. But we get two very hot starters tonight in this game. We get two bullpens that have pitched well as of late and even against each other this year. The two offensives have been struggling as of late scoring runs and have really struggled against left handed pitching also as of late. There are some strong situations and trends that look good for this game. Looking at all this and I have to make a play on the under 8.5 in this game tonight.
The Twins will send lefty Brian Duensing to the mound tonight to face lefty C.J. Wilson of the Rangers. Brian Duensing comes into this game on fire. He is 3-0 with a WHIP of 0.86 and an ERA of 1.48 his last 3 games. He is averaging 8 innings per game those 3 games allowing a total of 19 hits with 2 walks and 1 homerun. Since becoming a starter Duensing has not allowed more then 3 runs in any of the 6 starts he has started in. The funny thing though is C.J. Wilson comes into this game even hotter then Duensing. Wilson is 3-0 with a WHIP of 0.78 and an ERA of 1.25 his last 3 starts. This guy is averaging almost 7 innings per start in those three games allowing only a total of 12 hits with 5 walks and 0 homeruns. I know both starters are pitching well so I decided if I am playing an under how are the bullpens doing for these two teams. The Twins bullpen has allowed 6 earned runs in 14.2 innings pitched its last 3 games. The Rangers bullpen does them one up and has allowed 4 earned runs in 13 innings pitched its last 3 games. I felt that this is not enough info for the pitching in this game. So I looked at how the bullpens have faired in the 5 games that these two teams have played already this year. Well I see that the Twins bullpen has pitched a total of 8.1 innings against Texas this year allowing only 1 earned run. I see that Texas’s bullpen has pitched 16 innings against the Twins this year and has allowed 6 earned runs. But 3 of the earned runs came off a guy who is not on Texas’s roster as of now. So we have seen these bullpens pitch very well against each other this year.
Since baseball is not all pitching I wanted to see how these two teams have been doing hitting the ball as of late. The Twins comes into this game struggling right now to score runs. They are averaging 3.4 runs per game their last 5 games. Texas comes into this game doing a little bit better but down from there yearly average. They are only averaging 4.4 runs per game their last 5 games. Looking at the last 5 games was not enough for me. I wanted to see how these teams have been doing against left handed pitching since they both will be facing a lefty tonight. The Twins come into this game really struggling against left-handed pitching as of late. They are averaging 0 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against lefties. In that span they are only batting .158 off of these lefties that they have faced. Texas comes into this game struggling itself against lefties. They are averaging 0.8 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against lefties. They are batting only .250 in these games.
I always like to see how the trends and situations for a game look. The under is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 road games against a team with a home winning % above .600. The under is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 games as a road underdog. The under is 6-2-3 in the Twins last 11 road games against a left-handed starter. The under is 21-6-1 in the Rangers last 28 games against a starter with a WHIP less then 1.15. The under is 5-2 in the Rangers last 7 home games against a left-handed starter. The under is 10-4-1 in the Rangers last 15 games as a home favorite. The under is 12-4-1 in the Rangers last 17 homes games against a team with a winning record.
A lot of bettors are going to want to take the over since both of these teams do hit the ball very well and the first two games went under so how can a third one between these two heavy hitting teams go under. But we get two very hot starters tonight in this game. We get two bullpens that have pitched well as of late and even against each other this year. The two offensives have been struggling as of late scoring runs and have really struggled against left handed pitching also as of late. There are some strong situations and trends that look good for this game. Looking at all this and I have to make a play on the under 8.5 in this game tonight.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
A's at Indians
I do not know what to say. I guess it is my time for a string of bad luck to go my way. The Pirates starter admitted he never was able to get loose last night so he goes out anyway and hurt us in the long run by only pitching to two batters and then coming out. Well I guess this is the way it goes in my world. Investing in general is tough but investing in sports is even tougher. Well I am 1-3 the past 4 days being down 2.15 units is not how I wanted it. So today I have found a game that should get us a win. I really feel that this is a solid play and I will break down why I like the A’s ML -105 tonight against the Indians.
The A’s are going to send Gio Gonzalez to the mound tonight against the Indians who are sending Fausto Carmona to the mound. Gio Gonzalez comes into this game on fire as of late. He has an ERA of 1.35 and a WHIP of 1.00 his last 3 games. His record in those games is 1-1 and his team is 2-1. He has pitched a total of 20 innings in those 3 games and has only allowed a total of 3 earned runs to go along with 9 hits only. He has done all this against some of the best offenses in MLB (Twins, Texas and Toronto). I dug into his stats against the Indians and this guy is outstanding against them. His team is 4-0 and he has pitched a total of 23 1/3 innings in those 4 games allowing only 3 earned runs. I look at how Fausto Carmona is doing and I see he is 0-3 in his last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.87 and a WHIP of 1.64. This guy has gotten hit very hard as of late. He has given up 5 or more runs in 3 of his last 5 games. I decided I have to see how he pitched against Oakland in previous games. I see that in his last 5 outings his team is 2-3 and he has pitched 29 1/3 innings against them allowing 15 earned runs in those games. So I took a look at how the bullpens for these two teams have done so far. I see that Oakland’s bullpen has an ERA of 3.47 and a WHIP of 1.30 on the season. The Indians bullpen has an ERA of 3.80 and a WHIP of 1.39 on the season.
I took a look at how the hitting of these two teams has been so far and I see that the A’s are averaging 4.0 runs per game their last 5 games. The downside for the A’s though is they have struggled to hit on the road as of late. They are only averaging 2 runs per game their last 5 road games. The Indians on the other hand are averaging only 3.4 runs per game their last 5 games and only averaging 3.8 runs per game their last 5 home games. I did not feel that gave us enough info on this game so I decided to look at how they have done against each other this season. These two teams have played 6 games so far this season and I see the A’s have averaged 5.3 runs per game in those 6 games. The Indians have only averaged 2 runs per game in those 6 games. The Indians have actually been shutout in 3 of those 6 games. They seem to have problems with the A’s pitching. So what I did was took a look at how the bullpens have done against these teams hitters. The A’s bullpen has pitched 15 innings against the Indians this year and has given up 6 earned runs. The funny thing though is that 5 of the earned runs came off of two pitchers who are no longer with the A’s. The Indians bullpen has pitched 18.1 innings against the A’s this year allowing 6 earned runs.
I always say I like to look at some trends and situations that teams are in for the game I am investing in. The A’s are 6-1 in their last 7 starts against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The A’s are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road favorite. The A’s are 11-1 in Gonzalez’s last 12 starts as a favorite. The A’s are 6-1 in Gonzalez’s last 7 starts against a team with a losing record. The Indians are 9-20 in their last 29 home games against a left-handed starter. The Indians are 3-7 in their last 10 as a home underdog. The Indians are 1-5 in their last 6 against a team with a losing record. The Indians are 5-15 in their last 20 games following a day off.
I look at how hot Gio Gonzalez has been. I see that Fausto Carmona has been ice cold as of late. I took notice that the Indians have really struggled to score runs on this A’s pitching staff this season. In the situations and trends I see the A’s step it up against weaker teams while the Indians play down to teams levels. Looking at all this stuff I have to make a play on the A’s in this game. Taking a road favorite is not always the best move in baseball but the A’s have showed as of late why they are road favorites by posting that mark of 4-1 in those last 5 road games as a favorite. I will play 1 unit on the A’s ML today.
The A’s are going to send Gio Gonzalez to the mound tonight against the Indians who are sending Fausto Carmona to the mound. Gio Gonzalez comes into this game on fire as of late. He has an ERA of 1.35 and a WHIP of 1.00 his last 3 games. His record in those games is 1-1 and his team is 2-1. He has pitched a total of 20 innings in those 3 games and has only allowed a total of 3 earned runs to go along with 9 hits only. He has done all this against some of the best offenses in MLB (Twins, Texas and Toronto). I dug into his stats against the Indians and this guy is outstanding against them. His team is 4-0 and he has pitched a total of 23 1/3 innings in those 4 games allowing only 3 earned runs. I look at how Fausto Carmona is doing and I see he is 0-3 in his last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.87 and a WHIP of 1.64. This guy has gotten hit very hard as of late. He has given up 5 or more runs in 3 of his last 5 games. I decided I have to see how he pitched against Oakland in previous games. I see that in his last 5 outings his team is 2-3 and he has pitched 29 1/3 innings against them allowing 15 earned runs in those games. So I took a look at how the bullpens for these two teams have done so far. I see that Oakland’s bullpen has an ERA of 3.47 and a WHIP of 1.30 on the season. The Indians bullpen has an ERA of 3.80 and a WHIP of 1.39 on the season.
I took a look at how the hitting of these two teams has been so far and I see that the A’s are averaging 4.0 runs per game their last 5 games. The downside for the A’s though is they have struggled to hit on the road as of late. They are only averaging 2 runs per game their last 5 road games. The Indians on the other hand are averaging only 3.4 runs per game their last 5 games and only averaging 3.8 runs per game their last 5 home games. I did not feel that gave us enough info on this game so I decided to look at how they have done against each other this season. These two teams have played 6 games so far this season and I see the A’s have averaged 5.3 runs per game in those 6 games. The Indians have only averaged 2 runs per game in those 6 games. The Indians have actually been shutout in 3 of those 6 games. They seem to have problems with the A’s pitching. So what I did was took a look at how the bullpens have done against these teams hitters. The A’s bullpen has pitched 15 innings against the Indians this year and has given up 6 earned runs. The funny thing though is that 5 of the earned runs came off of two pitchers who are no longer with the A’s. The Indians bullpen has pitched 18.1 innings against the A’s this year allowing 6 earned runs.
I always say I like to look at some trends and situations that teams are in for the game I am investing in. The A’s are 6-1 in their last 7 starts against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The A’s are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road favorite. The A’s are 11-1 in Gonzalez’s last 12 starts as a favorite. The A’s are 6-1 in Gonzalez’s last 7 starts against a team with a losing record. The Indians are 9-20 in their last 29 home games against a left-handed starter. The Indians are 3-7 in their last 10 as a home underdog. The Indians are 1-5 in their last 6 against a team with a losing record. The Indians are 5-15 in their last 20 games following a day off.
I look at how hot Gio Gonzalez has been. I see that Fausto Carmona has been ice cold as of late. I took notice that the Indians have really struggled to score runs on this A’s pitching staff this season. In the situations and trends I see the A’s step it up against weaker teams while the Indians play down to teams levels. Looking at all this stuff I have to make a play on the A’s in this game. Taking a road favorite is not always the best move in baseball but the A’s have showed as of late why they are road favorites by posting that mark of 4-1 in those last 5 road games as a favorite. I will play 1 unit on the A’s ML today.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Cardinals at Pirates
Well what can I say besides I made a bad call on the over in the Twins Angels game yesterday? I just have to put that behind us and move on to today’s games and see what I have on tap. I have looked over the card for today’s games and I have found a play that I really like and I will make a play on this game. I am going to break down why I like the Pirates ML at +112.
I know a lot of people are going to say how in the world you could actually like the Pirates ML in a game. Well the big thing is, in baseball handicapping you have to play underdogs if you plan on making any money. There is no way in the world you are going to make money betting on favorite’s day in and day out. Every top notch team will lose at least 60 games if not more. This is one of those spots I feel we get value on an underdog.
The Cardinals are going to send Kyle Lohse to the mound tonight to face the Pirates Ross Ohlendorf. Kyle Lohse has pitched horrible this season. This guy is 1-5 with an ERA of 6.79 and a WHIP of 1.77. His last 3 starts he is 1-2 with an ERA of 10.22 and a WHIP of 2.03. This guy has pitched only 13 innings on the road this year and has given up 14 earned runs. Those are just horrible numbers. Ross Ohlendorf does not look like the greatest pitcher either. He is 1-10 with an ERA of 3.90 and a WHIP of 1.37. His last 3 outings he has actually are real solid. He has an ERA of 1.74 and a WHIP of 0.82 even though he is 0-1 in those games. To me it just does not look like the Pirates give this guy any run support. He has seen 8 of his last 10 games go under the total. The reason why the two went over the total the Pirates plated 12 and 8 runs in those games giving some run support. I dug a little bit deeper in this pitching matchup and I see that Ohlendorf has pitched twice at home against the Cardinals in his career and his team is 1-1 in those two games. He has thrown 14 innings in those two games and only allowed 1 earned run with 1 walk and 16 strikeouts. That is very impressive numbers for him at home against the Cardinals. Kyle Lohse has pitched twice in Pittsburgh and his teams are 1-1 and he has pitched 13 2/3 innings allowing 4 earned runs with 4 walks and 10 strikeouts.
So I looked at how these two teams come into this game hitting the ball. I see that the Cardinals are actually below average the past 5 games then what they are on the regular season. The past 5 games they have been averaging 4.2 runs per game and on the season they are averaging 4.6 runs per game. The Pirates come into this game not hitting the ball at all. They are only averaging 1.8 runs per game their last 5 games. This season they are only averaging 1.8 runs per game against the Cardinals in the 6 games they have played. The Pirates have not scored more than 4 runs in any contest with the Cardinals this season. I actually looked a little bit deeper and see the Pirates have only scored more than 3 runs once in their last 10 games. This team is really struggling to end a hitting slump.
Every baseball handicapper knows that pitching is a huge reason on how lines are set for baseball games. So in this game we get a horrible pitcher in Lohse who is on a good team going up against a subpar pitcher who has not gotten any run support this year. Of course you are going to see the Cardinals favored in this game since they are a much better team. But that is where handicapping a game comes into play and you have to find the advantage of one of the teams. I am going to take my chances and play the Pirates ML just because I feel they will get to Kyle Lohse in this game and end the streak of games where they have not gotten more than 2 runs. The Cardinals can hit but they are facing a pitcher who is very hot right now and his team should actually get him some run support against a below average pitcher.
I know a lot of people are going to say how in the world you could actually like the Pirates ML in a game. Well the big thing is, in baseball handicapping you have to play underdogs if you plan on making any money. There is no way in the world you are going to make money betting on favorite’s day in and day out. Every top notch team will lose at least 60 games if not more. This is one of those spots I feel we get value on an underdog.
The Cardinals are going to send Kyle Lohse to the mound tonight to face the Pirates Ross Ohlendorf. Kyle Lohse has pitched horrible this season. This guy is 1-5 with an ERA of 6.79 and a WHIP of 1.77. His last 3 starts he is 1-2 with an ERA of 10.22 and a WHIP of 2.03. This guy has pitched only 13 innings on the road this year and has given up 14 earned runs. Those are just horrible numbers. Ross Ohlendorf does not look like the greatest pitcher either. He is 1-10 with an ERA of 3.90 and a WHIP of 1.37. His last 3 outings he has actually are real solid. He has an ERA of 1.74 and a WHIP of 0.82 even though he is 0-1 in those games. To me it just does not look like the Pirates give this guy any run support. He has seen 8 of his last 10 games go under the total. The reason why the two went over the total the Pirates plated 12 and 8 runs in those games giving some run support. I dug a little bit deeper in this pitching matchup and I see that Ohlendorf has pitched twice at home against the Cardinals in his career and his team is 1-1 in those two games. He has thrown 14 innings in those two games and only allowed 1 earned run with 1 walk and 16 strikeouts. That is very impressive numbers for him at home against the Cardinals. Kyle Lohse has pitched twice in Pittsburgh and his teams are 1-1 and he has pitched 13 2/3 innings allowing 4 earned runs with 4 walks and 10 strikeouts.
So I looked at how these two teams come into this game hitting the ball. I see that the Cardinals are actually below average the past 5 games then what they are on the regular season. The past 5 games they have been averaging 4.2 runs per game and on the season they are averaging 4.6 runs per game. The Pirates come into this game not hitting the ball at all. They are only averaging 1.8 runs per game their last 5 games. This season they are only averaging 1.8 runs per game against the Cardinals in the 6 games they have played. The Pirates have not scored more than 4 runs in any contest with the Cardinals this season. I actually looked a little bit deeper and see the Pirates have only scored more than 3 runs once in their last 10 games. This team is really struggling to end a hitting slump.
Every baseball handicapper knows that pitching is a huge reason on how lines are set for baseball games. So in this game we get a horrible pitcher in Lohse who is on a good team going up against a subpar pitcher who has not gotten any run support this year. Of course you are going to see the Cardinals favored in this game since they are a much better team. But that is where handicapping a game comes into play and you have to find the advantage of one of the teams. I am going to take my chances and play the Pirates ML just because I feel they will get to Kyle Lohse in this game and end the streak of games where they have not gotten more than 2 runs. The Cardinals can hit but they are facing a pitcher who is very hot right now and his team should actually get him some run support against a below average pitcher.
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Angels at Twins
Well we lost the under on that Houston Florida game last night thanks to plenty of errors by Houston that allowed Florida to score runs they should not have gotten. We put that behind us and move onto today’s games and see what I have on tap. Well I am going to break down why I like the Angels and Twins over the total of 8 today.
The Angels are going to send Jered Weaver to the hill tonight in Minnesota to face Scott Baker from the Twins. Jered Weaver comes into this game not pitching his best as of late. He has an ERA of 4.05 and a WHIP of 1.15 his last 3 games. I looked a little bit deeper on Jered Weaver and see that this guy has been on fire with his games he starts going under the total. He has seen 9 of his last 10 go under the total. He has seen only 8 games go over the total that he has started in this year. His over under mark is 8-16. So I am sure people want to ask why I like the over then with how many of his games go under. Well he has seen all 8 of his overs on the road this year. His over under mark on the road is 8-5. This guy does not pitch anywhere near as solid on the road as he does at home. His road ERA is 4.44 while his home ERA is 1.65. He has given up 20 Earned runs his last 5 road starts for an average of 4 per game. Jered Weaver is also averaging 3.7 runs per game his last 3 games against the Twins. Scott Baker comes into this game with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.18 his last 3 games. When I dug into Baker’s stats a little bit more again I see a guy who has only seen 4 over’s in his last 10 games. So again why would I like the over? Well his over under mark on the year is 11-8 and it is 6-4 at home this season. He has a 4.73 ERA at home this year. He is allowing an average of 2.3 runs per game his last 3 starts against the Angels. Both Teams bullpens are not at its best right now. They are both allowing an average of 2.3 runs per game their last 3 games.
I took a look at how these two teams are hitting the ball right now and I see two teams that are scoring runs. The Angels come into this game averaging 4.6 runs per game their last 5 games and 5 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against righties. The Angels are also averaging 4.8 runs per game on the road this season. The Twins enter this game averaging 4.8 runs per game their last 5 games and is averaging 6 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against righties. You have a pitcher in Weaver who struggles on the road going up against a hot hitting team right now. To me that does not look well for Jered Weaver tonight. To me it seems these two teams hit each other very well also. The Angels are averaging 3.8 runs per game against the Twins this season while the Twins are averaging 5.8 runs per game against the Angels this season.
I always like to look at some trends and situations for a game with the two teams involved. Tonight I see an umpire in this game that has an average of 10.2 runs per game that he umpires in. His last 8 games he has umpired in he has seen 6 of those 8 games go over the posted total. The over is 5-2 in the Angels last 7 games as a road underdog. The over is 5-1 in the Angels last 6 road games against an opponent with a home winning % greater then .600. The over is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 homes games as a favorite. The over is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 when their opponent scores 5 or more the previous game. The over is 4-0-2 in Baker’s last 6 starts as a favorite. The over is 13-5-1 in Baker’s last 19 home starts with a total of 7-8.5. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meeting in Minnesota. The over is 14-4-3 in the last 21 meetings.
We are going to see a pitcher who gives up runs on the road against a hot hitting team right now. We are going to see a mediocre home pitcher facing a team that scores runs also. Both bullpens should give up a few runs also. I really feel we are going to see a game with a final of about 10 runs. I think we are getting great value in this game due to both pitchers have a run of games playing under the total and with Jered Weaver in this game you would think under since he is a solid pitcher. To me I will play the over 8 runs in this Sunday night game for 1 unit.
The Angels are going to send Jered Weaver to the hill tonight in Minnesota to face Scott Baker from the Twins. Jered Weaver comes into this game not pitching his best as of late. He has an ERA of 4.05 and a WHIP of 1.15 his last 3 games. I looked a little bit deeper on Jered Weaver and see that this guy has been on fire with his games he starts going under the total. He has seen 9 of his last 10 go under the total. He has seen only 8 games go over the total that he has started in this year. His over under mark is 8-16. So I am sure people want to ask why I like the over then with how many of his games go under. Well he has seen all 8 of his overs on the road this year. His over under mark on the road is 8-5. This guy does not pitch anywhere near as solid on the road as he does at home. His road ERA is 4.44 while his home ERA is 1.65. He has given up 20 Earned runs his last 5 road starts for an average of 4 per game. Jered Weaver is also averaging 3.7 runs per game his last 3 games against the Twins. Scott Baker comes into this game with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.18 his last 3 games. When I dug into Baker’s stats a little bit more again I see a guy who has only seen 4 over’s in his last 10 games. So again why would I like the over? Well his over under mark on the year is 11-8 and it is 6-4 at home this season. He has a 4.73 ERA at home this year. He is allowing an average of 2.3 runs per game his last 3 starts against the Angels. Both Teams bullpens are not at its best right now. They are both allowing an average of 2.3 runs per game their last 3 games.
I took a look at how these two teams are hitting the ball right now and I see two teams that are scoring runs. The Angels come into this game averaging 4.6 runs per game their last 5 games and 5 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against righties. The Angels are also averaging 4.8 runs per game on the road this season. The Twins enter this game averaging 4.8 runs per game their last 5 games and is averaging 6 runs per 9 innings their last 5 games against righties. You have a pitcher in Weaver who struggles on the road going up against a hot hitting team right now. To me that does not look well for Jered Weaver tonight. To me it seems these two teams hit each other very well also. The Angels are averaging 3.8 runs per game against the Twins this season while the Twins are averaging 5.8 runs per game against the Angels this season.
I always like to look at some trends and situations for a game with the two teams involved. Tonight I see an umpire in this game that has an average of 10.2 runs per game that he umpires in. His last 8 games he has umpired in he has seen 6 of those 8 games go over the posted total. The over is 5-2 in the Angels last 7 games as a road underdog. The over is 5-1 in the Angels last 6 road games against an opponent with a home winning % greater then .600. The over is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 homes games as a favorite. The over is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 when their opponent scores 5 or more the previous game. The over is 4-0-2 in Baker’s last 6 starts as a favorite. The over is 13-5-1 in Baker’s last 19 home starts with a total of 7-8.5. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meeting in Minnesota. The over is 14-4-3 in the last 21 meetings.
We are going to see a pitcher who gives up runs on the road against a hot hitting team right now. We are going to see a mediocre home pitcher facing a team that scores runs also. Both bullpens should give up a few runs also. I really feel we are going to see a game with a final of about 10 runs. I think we are getting great value in this game due to both pitchers have a run of games playing under the total and with Jered Weaver in this game you would think under since he is a solid pitcher. To me I will play the over 8 runs in this Sunday night game for 1 unit.
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Astros at Marlins
Well the Mariners and Yankees come through for us going under the total of 8 runs. I did not think the Yankees would get shut out but it helped keep us under and getting the win is all that counts. So I move on to the games today and I am going to break down why I like Houston and Florida under the total of 8 runs.
Wandy Rodriguez will head to the hill tonight for Houston to face Chris Volstad of the Marlins. Wandy comes into this game on fire his last 3 games. He has an ERA of 1.33 and a WHIP of 1.03 his last 3 games. He has only allowed 3 earned runs in his last 5 games. He is averaging 7 innings per game in those 5 games and he has allowed only 23 total hits in those 5 games for an average of 4.6 hits per game. In those 5 games he has only allowed 1 home run also. Wandy has actually pitched very well against the Marlins his last 5 games. He has allowed only 8 runs in 32 innings of work. Chris Volstad enters this game not even close to as hot as Wandy is. He has an ERA of 6.32 and a WHIP of 1.79. On a brighter note though for Volstad he has allowed only 8 runs in his last 3 homes starts for an average of 2.7 per game. I do see that Volstad is not an inning eater so you will see a lot of the Marlins bullpen which is going to help us for this under. The Marlins bullpen has actually only allowed 3 earned runs their last 3 games while pitching 19 innings. If the Astros do get a few off of Volstad we should see Florida’s bullpen bail him out in this game.
Well Houston comes into this game not hitting the ball well at all as of late. The Astros are only averaging 2 runs per game their last 5 games. They are only averaging 3.4 runs per game their last 5 games on the road. This is what is going to hurt Wandy. His team is only averaging 2.7 runs per game the last 3 starts he has started and only 3.6 runs per game his last 5 starts he started. Florida comes into this game averaging 4.6 runs per game their last 5 games but they are only averaging 4 runs per game their last 5 homes games. The Marlins do give Volstad plenty of run support in the games he pitches. The Marlins are averaging 4.7 runs per game the last 3 games he pitched in and 4.7 run per game the last 5 games he has pitched in.
I always like to take a look and see what trends or situations look interesting for a game that could help feel more comfortable about our play. Well the first one I like tonight is the umpire for this game is Bill Hohn. His over under record this year is 8-15. If you break it down a little more he has seen 3 over and 8 under on games where the total is 8.5 or less. The under is 4-1 in the Astros last 5 games with a total of 7-8.5. The under is 8-3 in Houston’s last 11 games after getting shut out. The under is 20-5-1 in Rodriguez’s last 26 starts when their opponent scores 5 or more runs the previous game. The under is 5-2 in Rodriguez’s last 7 games on 4 days rest. The under is 4-1 in the Marlins last 5 games with a total of 7-8.5. The under is 4-1 in the Marlins last 5 home games against a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in Volstad’s last 6 home starts as a favorite. The under is 6-2 in Volstad’s last 8 starts with 4 days rest. The under is 11-5 in Volsatd’s last 16 games after allowing 2 runs or less their previous game.
I truly believe that Wandy is going to get the best of Florida tonight. He should shut them down just like he has in the past and how he has been doing his past few starts to his opponents. Volstad might get in trouble but I do not see it being too bad since Houston is having problems right now scoring runs. So if he gives up 3 runs then the bullpen will take over and they have been on fire. I do not see Houston scoring more then 1 or 2 off that bullpen. I think Florida will get 2 off of Wandy and they might get 1 off of the bullpen since Wandy will probably throw 7-8 innings. He knows he needs to go deep in the game since his bullpen has blown a few leads this year for him. He wants to end this streak of 3 straight losses against him so this will be it. I think Houston wins this game 4-2 or 4-3. I will play the under 8 for 1 unit.
Wandy Rodriguez will head to the hill tonight for Houston to face Chris Volstad of the Marlins. Wandy comes into this game on fire his last 3 games. He has an ERA of 1.33 and a WHIP of 1.03 his last 3 games. He has only allowed 3 earned runs in his last 5 games. He is averaging 7 innings per game in those 5 games and he has allowed only 23 total hits in those 5 games for an average of 4.6 hits per game. In those 5 games he has only allowed 1 home run also. Wandy has actually pitched very well against the Marlins his last 5 games. He has allowed only 8 runs in 32 innings of work. Chris Volstad enters this game not even close to as hot as Wandy is. He has an ERA of 6.32 and a WHIP of 1.79. On a brighter note though for Volstad he has allowed only 8 runs in his last 3 homes starts for an average of 2.7 per game. I do see that Volstad is not an inning eater so you will see a lot of the Marlins bullpen which is going to help us for this under. The Marlins bullpen has actually only allowed 3 earned runs their last 3 games while pitching 19 innings. If the Astros do get a few off of Volstad we should see Florida’s bullpen bail him out in this game.
Well Houston comes into this game not hitting the ball well at all as of late. The Astros are only averaging 2 runs per game their last 5 games. They are only averaging 3.4 runs per game their last 5 games on the road. This is what is going to hurt Wandy. His team is only averaging 2.7 runs per game the last 3 starts he has started and only 3.6 runs per game his last 5 starts he started. Florida comes into this game averaging 4.6 runs per game their last 5 games but they are only averaging 4 runs per game their last 5 homes games. The Marlins do give Volstad plenty of run support in the games he pitches. The Marlins are averaging 4.7 runs per game the last 3 games he pitched in and 4.7 run per game the last 5 games he has pitched in.
I always like to take a look and see what trends or situations look interesting for a game that could help feel more comfortable about our play. Well the first one I like tonight is the umpire for this game is Bill Hohn. His over under record this year is 8-15. If you break it down a little more he has seen 3 over and 8 under on games where the total is 8.5 or less. The under is 4-1 in the Astros last 5 games with a total of 7-8.5. The under is 8-3 in Houston’s last 11 games after getting shut out. The under is 20-5-1 in Rodriguez’s last 26 starts when their opponent scores 5 or more runs the previous game. The under is 5-2 in Rodriguez’s last 7 games on 4 days rest. The under is 4-1 in the Marlins last 5 games with a total of 7-8.5. The under is 4-1 in the Marlins last 5 home games against a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in Volstad’s last 6 home starts as a favorite. The under is 6-2 in Volstad’s last 8 starts with 4 days rest. The under is 11-5 in Volsatd’s last 16 games after allowing 2 runs or less their previous game.
I truly believe that Wandy is going to get the best of Florida tonight. He should shut them down just like he has in the past and how he has been doing his past few starts to his opponents. Volstad might get in trouble but I do not see it being too bad since Houston is having problems right now scoring runs. So if he gives up 3 runs then the bullpen will take over and they have been on fire. I do not see Houston scoring more then 1 or 2 off that bullpen. I think Florida will get 2 off of Wandy and they might get 1 off of the bullpen since Wandy will probably throw 7-8 innings. He knows he needs to go deep in the game since his bullpen has blown a few leads this year for him. He wants to end this streak of 3 straight losses against him so this will be it. I think Houston wins this game 4-2 or 4-3. I will play the under 8 for 1 unit.
Friday, August 20, 2010
Seattle at NY
The Mariners will send Felix Hernandez to the mound tonight to face the Yankees AJ Burnett. King Felix comes into this game on fire his last 3 games. He has an ERA of 1.27 with a WHIP of 1.17. The down side for him is that his team is only averaging 1 run per game in his last 3 starts. I know this guy is a stud but you have score him some runs, especially if you have to use your sub par bullpen for an inning or two. AJ Burnett comes into this game struggling as of late. This guy is 0-2 with a 5.49 ERA and a WHIP of 1.27. On a brighter note for AJ though is he has pitched very well his last 2 games out allowing only 4 runs on 10 hits in 15 innings of work. I dug a little bit deeper in this pitching matchup and see that Felix Hernandez’s last 3 starts in New York have gone under the total. When I looked a little more I see that in his last 5 games against the Yankees all five have gone under the posted total and the Yankees are only averaging 1.8 runs per game in those 5 against him. AJ Burnett has not pitched at home against Seattle since his signing with the Yankees. His one game of pitching against Seattle in a Yankees uniform he threw 7 innings of 1 run ball.
These two teams come into this game into this game really hitting the ball well. Seattle enters this game averaging 4.8 runs per game their last 5 games. They are averaging 4.8 their last 5 away games and they are batting .263 in those five games against righties. The Yankees enter tonight’s matchup averaging 5.4 runs per game their last 5 games and 5.6 runs per game their last 5 homes games. The down side for the Yankees is they are only hitting .219 against righties their last 5 games. The Mariners though have seen those numbers inflated due to playing teams with a lack of talent in their pitching staffs. They were scoring runs off of pitchers from Baltimore and Cleveland. Those are two teams that do not have pitching staffs like the Yankees. So I dug a little bit more into these two teams hitting this year and see that Seattle is only averaging 3.4 runs per game this year against the Yankees while the Yankees are only averaging 3.7 runs per game against Seattle this season.
I always like to look trends for games especially ones that are more situational. So I see that the Mariners are 6-1-1 their last 8 against a team with a winning record. The under is 5-1-2 in Hernandez’s last 8 games as a road underdog. The under is 18-6-4 in Hernandez’s last 28 starts against a team with a winning record. King Felix has pitched in 13 road games this season and he has seen only 3 of those game go over 8 runs. The under is 8-1-2 in Burnett’s last 11 home starts against a team with a losing record. (Shows me he steps it up against weak teams) The under is 13-6-2 in Burnett’s last 21 homes starts. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. The under is 5-0 in Hernandez’s last 5 starts against the Yankees.
I truly believe the Mariners bats will cool down here and the Yankees will have their problems hitting King Felix. This game should end up being a Mariners win and I really feel this will be a 4-3 game or even a 4-2 game. I am going to play the Mariners and Yankees under 8 for 1 unit.
These two teams come into this game into this game really hitting the ball well. Seattle enters this game averaging 4.8 runs per game their last 5 games. They are averaging 4.8 their last 5 away games and they are batting .263 in those five games against righties. The Yankees enter tonight’s matchup averaging 5.4 runs per game their last 5 games and 5.6 runs per game their last 5 homes games. The down side for the Yankees is they are only hitting .219 against righties their last 5 games. The Mariners though have seen those numbers inflated due to playing teams with a lack of talent in their pitching staffs. They were scoring runs off of pitchers from Baltimore and Cleveland. Those are two teams that do not have pitching staffs like the Yankees. So I dug a little bit more into these two teams hitting this year and see that Seattle is only averaging 3.4 runs per game this year against the Yankees while the Yankees are only averaging 3.7 runs per game against Seattle this season.
I always like to look trends for games especially ones that are more situational. So I see that the Mariners are 6-1-1 their last 8 against a team with a winning record. The under is 5-1-2 in Hernandez’s last 8 games as a road underdog. The under is 18-6-4 in Hernandez’s last 28 starts against a team with a winning record. King Felix has pitched in 13 road games this season and he has seen only 3 of those game go over 8 runs. The under is 8-1-2 in Burnett’s last 11 home starts against a team with a losing record. (Shows me he steps it up against weak teams) The under is 13-6-2 in Burnett’s last 21 homes starts. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. The under is 5-0 in Hernandez’s last 5 starts against the Yankees.
I truly believe the Mariners bats will cool down here and the Yankees will have their problems hitting King Felix. This game should end up being a Mariners win and I really feel this will be a 4-3 game or even a 4-2 game. I am going to play the Mariners and Yankees under 8 for 1 unit.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Sports Picks
I have not been updating my blog but I am going to get back to doing that. Starting on August 20th I will be back posting picks on games and why I like them. I looked at todays card and I could not find a game that jumped out at me to make me want to lay money on.
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