Opening Line: S Miss -10
Current Line : S Miss -9.5 and -10 at some books.
UAB comes into this game off a tough loss last week at Mississippi St by 5 but covering the 19.5 point spread. This team does not impress me at all this year. I watched them get man handled a few weeks ago at Central Florida and I have a feeling that is going to happen again in this game. They do not play that well on the road. They are allowing 33 points per game on the road this year and now they have to go into S Miss who has been lighting the scoreboard up the past few weeks. They have not gone on the road yet this year with not allowing 28 or more points. They do not score as well on the road either. They are only averaging 17 points per game on the road. I took a look at how they play in conference on the road and they are 2-3 ATS their last 5 road conference games and are scoring 21 points per game but allowing 32 points per game in those 5 games.
S Miss on the other hand has just been on fire their last few games. Thy come into this one off a blowout win at Memphis where they covered as 16.5 point favorites. They are averging 42 points per game thier last 3 games. They have played 6 games this year against Division 1 schools and they have only allowed more then 20 points twice in those 6 games. That was against South Carolina who is a top 25 team and ECU who is at the top of their conference. I looked at how they play in conference and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home conference games averaging 41 points per game and allowing 23 points per game. So I dug a little deeper on them and took a look how they perform as a big favorite. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 8 or more points. In those 5 games they are averaging 41 points per game and allowing only 18 points per game. This is showing me that they do not take teams for granted and play to their level and not down to other teams levels.
I feel that S Miss is going to come into this game and should keep their hot scoring going since UAB does give up points on the road. Their defense has played well this season and should shut down this UAB offense. UAB hammered this S Miss team last year, winning by 13 as a 10 point dog. This is revenge for S Miss this year, since it is on their home field now. I do not like to play big favorites like this but like I said I am not impressed with this UAB team from what I have seen. I think S Miss wins this game by a score of 37-17.
S Miss -10 for me.
Friday, October 29, 2010
Friday, October 22, 2010
C Mich at N Ill
Opening Line: N. Ill -10 now at -10.5. Over under 52.5 now at 54.
We have two teams in this MAC game going in opposite directions. C Mich comes into this game off a big loss at home as a 13 point favorite to Miami Ohio. N Ill comes into this game off a big win at home against Buffalo as a 14 point favorite.
C Michigan has not been the same team as they were the past few years when they had a stud QB. This team is really struggling. They only have two wins this year and that was against Hampton and the other came at the hands of Eastern Michigan who is at the bottom of the West Division in the MAC with a 1-6 record. They have averaged 21 points per game their last 4 games but have allowed 33 points per game in those 4 games. They have not allowed a team to score less then 27 in those past 4 games. This does not look good for them since N Ill has been on a tear of scoring points.
N Ill comes into this game on a 4 game win streak and covering all 4 of those games. They come into this game averaging 40 points per game their last 4 games and allowing only 17 points per game those last 4 games. They have played 3 conference games this year and have only allowed an average of 15 points per game in those 3 conference games. N Ill has only allowed an average of 13 points per game in their last 5 home conference game and have scored and average of 36 points per game. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home conference games. N Ill is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.
N Ill comes into this game knowing that the past 3 years they have had their struggles against C Mich. Now it is time to give their fans a win over a program that has beaten them pretty good in 2 of those past 3 games. Last years game C Mich was a 13.5 point favorite and won by 14. Now this year N Ill is a 10 point favorite. It shows that the tides have turned on these two teams. The Home team in this series is also 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
I feel N Ill is going to be ready for this game and they want to put a beating on this team. They have had to live with C Mich being the top dog in the MAC the past few years and now it is their turn to show who the top dog is. 10.5 points is alot of points in a conference game but I just think wil N Ill defense being so tough and their offense scoring at will as of late they will win this game over a C Mich team that just seems to have let up already on the season. Should see a N Ill win by about 13-17 points I think.
N Ill 33 C Mich 17
We have two teams in this MAC game going in opposite directions. C Mich comes into this game off a big loss at home as a 13 point favorite to Miami Ohio. N Ill comes into this game off a big win at home against Buffalo as a 14 point favorite.
C Michigan has not been the same team as they were the past few years when they had a stud QB. This team is really struggling. They only have two wins this year and that was against Hampton and the other came at the hands of Eastern Michigan who is at the bottom of the West Division in the MAC with a 1-6 record. They have averaged 21 points per game their last 4 games but have allowed 33 points per game in those 4 games. They have not allowed a team to score less then 27 in those past 4 games. This does not look good for them since N Ill has been on a tear of scoring points.
N Ill comes into this game on a 4 game win streak and covering all 4 of those games. They come into this game averaging 40 points per game their last 4 games and allowing only 17 points per game those last 4 games. They have played 3 conference games this year and have only allowed an average of 15 points per game in those 3 conference games. N Ill has only allowed an average of 13 points per game in their last 5 home conference game and have scored and average of 36 points per game. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home conference games. N Ill is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.
N Ill comes into this game knowing that the past 3 years they have had their struggles against C Mich. Now it is time to give their fans a win over a program that has beaten them pretty good in 2 of those past 3 games. Last years game C Mich was a 13.5 point favorite and won by 14. Now this year N Ill is a 10 point favorite. It shows that the tides have turned on these two teams. The Home team in this series is also 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
I feel N Ill is going to be ready for this game and they want to put a beating on this team. They have had to live with C Mich being the top dog in the MAC the past few years and now it is their turn to show who the top dog is. 10.5 points is alot of points in a conference game but I just think wil N Ill defense being so tough and their offense scoring at will as of late they will win this game over a C Mich team that just seems to have let up already on the season. Should see a N Ill win by about 13-17 points I think.
N Ill 33 C Mich 17
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Friday Night Football SFL at Cincy
The opening line for this game was Cincy -8 and has since been bet down to -7.5. The opening over under for this game was 46 and has been bet up to 48.
South Florida comes into this game playing on the road last week at West Virginia as a 10 point dog in a game they got beat by 14. Now they must go on the road again where they have had their struggles and play Cincy as a 7.5 point dog. South Florida has really struggled on the road their last 8 games. They are only averging 18 points per game away from home and to take it even farther their last 5 conference road games they have only averaged 16 points per game. Their defense has not been anything special either on the road. The last 8 road games their defense has allowed an average of 25 points per game. Their last 5 road conference games they have allowed 28 points per game. South Florida has two wins over Division 1 schools this year and that is Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky. Both of them were at home and those two schools are two of the worst football teams in Div 1 this year. They are 1-10 combined this year them two schools.
Cincy comes into this game with back to back wins against Miami Oh at home as a 19.5 point favorite and then went on the road last week and beat Louisville as a 2.5 points road favorite. Now they are back home against a conference rival as a 7.5 point favorite. Cincy has actually scored alot of points at home their last 7 homes games. They are averging 38 points per game in those 7 homes games and 34 points per game in their last 5 conference home games. The defense for Cincy has allowed 24 points per game the last 7 homes games and 23 points per game their last 5 home conference games.
The thing that gets me about this game is the total on this game. You have South Flroida that has played under the total the last 4 games and Cincy who has averaged 32 points per game their last 4 games and who has not seen a posted total under 50 all year. Looking at this to me it seems like the books expect S FL to dictate the play of this game. You have a team that has played very low scoring games up against a team that is not use to seeing this low of a total and has played solid offense this year. I have to believe that the under would be a good play here. We are getting great value also with the total being bet up to 48 already. I do not know if Cincy is a good play since like I said this low total almost makes me think the books expect S FL to play a closer game then expected. With all that being said I have to say my play for Friday nights game will be.
Under 48 S FL and Cincy.
Good Luck everyone!
South Florida comes into this game playing on the road last week at West Virginia as a 10 point dog in a game they got beat by 14. Now they must go on the road again where they have had their struggles and play Cincy as a 7.5 point dog. South Florida has really struggled on the road their last 8 games. They are only averging 18 points per game away from home and to take it even farther their last 5 conference road games they have only averaged 16 points per game. Their defense has not been anything special either on the road. The last 8 road games their defense has allowed an average of 25 points per game. Their last 5 road conference games they have allowed 28 points per game. South Florida has two wins over Division 1 schools this year and that is Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky. Both of them were at home and those two schools are two of the worst football teams in Div 1 this year. They are 1-10 combined this year them two schools.
Cincy comes into this game with back to back wins against Miami Oh at home as a 19.5 point favorite and then went on the road last week and beat Louisville as a 2.5 points road favorite. Now they are back home against a conference rival as a 7.5 point favorite. Cincy has actually scored alot of points at home their last 7 homes games. They are averging 38 points per game in those 7 homes games and 34 points per game in their last 5 conference home games. The defense for Cincy has allowed 24 points per game the last 7 homes games and 23 points per game their last 5 home conference games.
The thing that gets me about this game is the total on this game. You have South Flroida that has played under the total the last 4 games and Cincy who has averaged 32 points per game their last 4 games and who has not seen a posted total under 50 all year. Looking at this to me it seems like the books expect S FL to dictate the play of this game. You have a team that has played very low scoring games up against a team that is not use to seeing this low of a total and has played solid offense this year. I have to believe that the under would be a good play here. We are getting great value also with the total being bet up to 48 already. I do not know if Cincy is a good play since like I said this low total almost makes me think the books expect S FL to play a closer game then expected. With all that being said I have to say my play for Friday nights game will be.
Under 48 S FL and Cincy.
Good Luck everyone!
Monday, October 18, 2010
NFL 10/18 Titans at Jags
Jacksonville +3
Looking at this game I see two teams are coming into this game both 3-2 looking to become 4-2 and stay tied with Houston and Indy in this division. Division games are huge and both of these teams know that going into this one. So why do I like Jacksonville?
The Jags come into this game off of back to back wins where they averaged 34 points per game. Their defense though has to step it up, it has allowed 27 points per game in those two wins. They will not continue to win with a Defense playing that bad. The Jags though have played really well in conference play its last 5 home conference games. This team is averaging 29 points per game in those 5 conference home games but are allowing 26 points per game in those games. They are however 3-1 ATS in their last 4 home conference games as an underdog.
The Titans come into this game off a big win In Dallas last week. The bad thing though for the Titans they are right back on the road again this week now against a division rival in the Jags. It is not easy to be on the road in back to back weeks. The Titans have played very well on the road this year where they are avergaing 32 points per game away from home and they are only allowing 19 points per game away from home and are 2-0 ATS in those 2 games and 2-0 SU. So why are they only a 3 point favorite in this game if they are playing this well on the road? Well did you know that the titans though are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 conference road games as a favorite. They are 1-4 ATS L5 games as a favorite of 3 or less. They only have averaged 13 points per game their last 5 conference road games. They are also allowing 23 points per game in those 5 conference road games. The Titans actually are only 2-6 ATS their last 8 conference games overall.
I actually think this is going to be a good game. I feel that the Jags are going to keep this game close and could even pull off the outright win on this game. The way the Titans are playing in conference as of late and on the road in conference I have to say I feel the Jags are the right play in this game. We are seeing 65% of the bets coming in on the Titans and the line has moved from +3 -110 to +3 -120 on the Titans. IT looks like the bigger money is coming in on the home dog in this one and that is where I am going. Jags +3 for me in this one for 1 unit and I really think it ends up with a score of 23-21 Jags.
Looking at this game I see two teams are coming into this game both 3-2 looking to become 4-2 and stay tied with Houston and Indy in this division. Division games are huge and both of these teams know that going into this one. So why do I like Jacksonville?
The Jags come into this game off of back to back wins where they averaged 34 points per game. Their defense though has to step it up, it has allowed 27 points per game in those two wins. They will not continue to win with a Defense playing that bad. The Jags though have played really well in conference play its last 5 home conference games. This team is averaging 29 points per game in those 5 conference home games but are allowing 26 points per game in those games. They are however 3-1 ATS in their last 4 home conference games as an underdog.
The Titans come into this game off a big win In Dallas last week. The bad thing though for the Titans they are right back on the road again this week now against a division rival in the Jags. It is not easy to be on the road in back to back weeks. The Titans have played very well on the road this year where they are avergaing 32 points per game away from home and they are only allowing 19 points per game away from home and are 2-0 ATS in those 2 games and 2-0 SU. So why are they only a 3 point favorite in this game if they are playing this well on the road? Well did you know that the titans though are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 conference road games as a favorite. They are 1-4 ATS L5 games as a favorite of 3 or less. They only have averaged 13 points per game their last 5 conference road games. They are also allowing 23 points per game in those 5 conference road games. The Titans actually are only 2-6 ATS their last 8 conference games overall.
I actually think this is going to be a good game. I feel that the Jags are going to keep this game close and could even pull off the outright win on this game. The way the Titans are playing in conference as of late and on the road in conference I have to say I feel the Jags are the right play in this game. We are seeing 65% of the bets coming in on the Titans and the line has moved from +3 -110 to +3 -120 on the Titans. IT looks like the bigger money is coming in on the home dog in this one and that is where I am going. Jags +3 for me in this one for 1 unit and I really think it ends up with a score of 23-21 Jags.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
NFL Oakland at SF
SF -7. This looks way to easy to take Oakland. An 0-5 team as a touchdown favorite. Come on think about it, is Vegas going to give a gift like this. I looked into this a little bit more and this is what I found and why I like this pick.
The Raiders are not a good road football team. They have really struggled on the road its last six games. They are only averging 13 points per game and allowing 25 points per game. They have given up an avg of 162 rushing yards per game on the road, which looks good for any Frank Gore Fantasy owners. They are however 3-3 ATS their last 6 road games as an underdog but in 2 of those ATS covers they were double digit dogs. Throw in the fact they are off a comeback win against SD a division rival and you have a bad road team who might not have their heads in this game completly.
SF on the other hand needs a win bad. They know this is where it is going to happen. They have played two home games already this year and they were both to two playoff contending teams and lost by only 3 in both of them. So now they play an Oakland team that is not in the same boat as Philly and NO. SF at home it last 6 games has averaged 23 points per game and allowed only 13 points per game.
I really believe SF comes out ready for this game knowing they need a win and they have to get it.They should be able to take out alot of frustration on this raiders team to make up how they have played in their previous 5 games this season. I see a SF win in this game and it should be 27-17 or even 27-13. I just do not see Oakland being all that motivated for this game and I see SF in a need win situation.
The Raiders are not a good road football team. They have really struggled on the road its last six games. They are only averging 13 points per game and allowing 25 points per game. They have given up an avg of 162 rushing yards per game on the road, which looks good for any Frank Gore Fantasy owners. They are however 3-3 ATS their last 6 road games as an underdog but in 2 of those ATS covers they were double digit dogs. Throw in the fact they are off a comeback win against SD a division rival and you have a bad road team who might not have their heads in this game completly.
SF on the other hand needs a win bad. They know this is where it is going to happen. They have played two home games already this year and they were both to two playoff contending teams and lost by only 3 in both of them. So now they play an Oakland team that is not in the same boat as Philly and NO. SF at home it last 6 games has averaged 23 points per game and allowed only 13 points per game.
I really believe SF comes out ready for this game knowing they need a win and they have to get it.They should be able to take out alot of frustration on this raiders team to make up how they have played in their previous 5 games this season. I see a SF win in this game and it should be 27-17 or even 27-13. I just do not see Oakland being all that motivated for this game and I see SF in a need win situation.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Kansas St at Kansas
Let me start by saying that I know Kansas St on paper is the better team but I am not looking for who the better team is I am looking at who is going to cover this line. Alot of people are up in the air on this game and this is what I feel about it.
This is a very interesting game to breakdown. Kansas St comes into this game off a huge loss to Nebraska and would like nothing more then to go on National TV and lay a beating on its inerstate rival. The problem though is Kansas St is a horrible road team. This team is 2-14 Straight up their last 16 road games. (this does not include neutral site games). They are 1-5 ATS the last 6 road games as a favorite. They know in their minds that they got hammered by Nebraksa and want this game big time, but they also know that they have road struggles and it is in their head. The question is though do they press too much trying for a win on the road tonight and get caught off guard by a team in Kansas that Plays pretty good at home but just horrible on the road. Kansas has had an extra week to prepeare for this game, I feel they should be ready to face a struggling road team.
Kansas St on the road in their last 5 conference road games is only averging 19 points per game and has allowed 38 points per game in those 5 conference road games. This team has yet to play a road game this year but last year they only averaged 14 points per game on the road and allowed 33 points per game.
Kansas on the other hand at home their last 5 conference games is averging 23 points per game but allows 36 points per game. Kansas though their last 7 home games has averaged 31 points per game and allowed 27 points per game. This Kansas team was humilated this year at home the first game of the season by North Dakota state, the next game they rebounded and beat G Tech on their home field. They went on to lose by 15 at S Miss and then came home and blew out New Mexico St. They then went to Baylor and got crushed by 48 points. They way it looks they seem to rebound off of bad losses. So can they rebound tonight and beat this Kansas St team?
I truly believe that Kansas can cover this spread tonight. This game looks like it is set up to be a lower scoring game with the total only at 50. So keeping that in Mind I think that either Kansas wins this game outright or they lose it either 23-21 or even 24-21. I am going to wait on this for a little bit and see if this line can get back to 3.5 and then I would take Kansas just in case it ends in a 3 point loss. If not I might just play a half unit on Kansas at +3.
Good Luck Everyone!
This is a very interesting game to breakdown. Kansas St comes into this game off a huge loss to Nebraska and would like nothing more then to go on National TV and lay a beating on its inerstate rival. The problem though is Kansas St is a horrible road team. This team is 2-14 Straight up their last 16 road games. (this does not include neutral site games). They are 1-5 ATS the last 6 road games as a favorite. They know in their minds that they got hammered by Nebraksa and want this game big time, but they also know that they have road struggles and it is in their head. The question is though do they press too much trying for a win on the road tonight and get caught off guard by a team in Kansas that Plays pretty good at home but just horrible on the road. Kansas has had an extra week to prepeare for this game, I feel they should be ready to face a struggling road team.
Kansas St on the road in their last 5 conference road games is only averging 19 points per game and has allowed 38 points per game in those 5 conference road games. This team has yet to play a road game this year but last year they only averaged 14 points per game on the road and allowed 33 points per game.
Kansas on the other hand at home their last 5 conference games is averging 23 points per game but allows 36 points per game. Kansas though their last 7 home games has averaged 31 points per game and allowed 27 points per game. This Kansas team was humilated this year at home the first game of the season by North Dakota state, the next game they rebounded and beat G Tech on their home field. They went on to lose by 15 at S Miss and then came home and blew out New Mexico St. They then went to Baylor and got crushed by 48 points. They way it looks they seem to rebound off of bad losses. So can they rebound tonight and beat this Kansas St team?
I truly believe that Kansas can cover this spread tonight. This game looks like it is set up to be a lower scoring game with the total only at 50. So keeping that in Mind I think that either Kansas wins this game outright or they lose it either 23-21 or even 24-21. I am going to wait on this for a little bit and see if this line can get back to 3.5 and then I would take Kansas just in case it ends in a 3 point loss. If not I might just play a half unit on Kansas at +3.
Good Luck Everyone!
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
10/6 College Football
Tonight we have Wednesday night college football. UAB will travel to take on Central Florida in this Conference USA game. The Opening line for this game tonight is Central Florida -12 and the over under opened at 47. I do see though that the line has moved at some books from Central Florida -12 to -11.5 and other books still have it at -12. The over under line has really moved a lot so far. It has now moved to 49 at most books and some books have it at 48.5.
UAB comes into this game really playing some close football games. This team has won one game by 1 point as a 3.5 point dog and loss 2 games by one point. They took Tennessee to overtime their last time out. They have scored 29 or more points in 3 of their 4 games this season. The one game they did not score more then 29 was on the road at SMU where they only scored 7. Now if they would have not gone to over time with Tennessee then they would have scored less but they did score 6 points of their 29 in overtime against them. The downside for UAB though is they give up a lot of points. They game up 32, 28, 33 and 32. You will not win games giving up over 30 points per game on defense.
Central Florida comes into this game playing good football. I know a lot of people will look at their record and think how they are playing that well, they are 2-2 and one of the wins came against South Dakota a non division 1 school. Well look at their two losses. The two losses that this team has are both to BCS schools. They played both of those teams very tough too. They shut down Russell Wilson of NC State. The kid was only 10 of 30 for 105 yards and 1 touchdown. Now this is not just an average quarterback. We are talking they shut down the quarterback who has the 3rd most passing yards in college football and who has the 2nd most touchdown passes in college football. So that is telling me that this defense is good.
I took a look at how these two teams have done in certain situations. UAB in their last 5 games as an underdog of more then 8 points is averaging 20 points per game and they are allowing 32.4 points per game. Central Florida in their last 5 games as a favorite of 8 or more points is averaging 33 points per game and is only allowing 11.8 points per game. The last 5 conference away games that UAB has played in on the road they have averaged 20.8 points per game and allowed 29.2 points per game. Central Florida in their last 5 conference home games they have averaged 27.8 points per game and have allowed 16.2 points per game.
Vegas made this line pretty much right on for this total. I look at this and I figured that we would see a game that Central Florida wins 30-17. Now since the public has bet this game up to 49 I feel we are getting some good value. It is a Wednesday night game and the public loves to watch high scoring games. Well I think they are way off on this one I think we see this game go under the total and that is what I am going to play tonight. I will make a play on the under tonight for 1 unit.
UAB comes into this game really playing some close football games. This team has won one game by 1 point as a 3.5 point dog and loss 2 games by one point. They took Tennessee to overtime their last time out. They have scored 29 or more points in 3 of their 4 games this season. The one game they did not score more then 29 was on the road at SMU where they only scored 7. Now if they would have not gone to over time with Tennessee then they would have scored less but they did score 6 points of their 29 in overtime against them. The downside for UAB though is they give up a lot of points. They game up 32, 28, 33 and 32. You will not win games giving up over 30 points per game on defense.
Central Florida comes into this game playing good football. I know a lot of people will look at their record and think how they are playing that well, they are 2-2 and one of the wins came against South Dakota a non division 1 school. Well look at their two losses. The two losses that this team has are both to BCS schools. They played both of those teams very tough too. They shut down Russell Wilson of NC State. The kid was only 10 of 30 for 105 yards and 1 touchdown. Now this is not just an average quarterback. We are talking they shut down the quarterback who has the 3rd most passing yards in college football and who has the 2nd most touchdown passes in college football. So that is telling me that this defense is good.
I took a look at how these two teams have done in certain situations. UAB in their last 5 games as an underdog of more then 8 points is averaging 20 points per game and they are allowing 32.4 points per game. Central Florida in their last 5 games as a favorite of 8 or more points is averaging 33 points per game and is only allowing 11.8 points per game. The last 5 conference away games that UAB has played in on the road they have averaged 20.8 points per game and allowed 29.2 points per game. Central Florida in their last 5 conference home games they have averaged 27.8 points per game and have allowed 16.2 points per game.
Vegas made this line pretty much right on for this total. I look at this and I figured that we would see a game that Central Florida wins 30-17. Now since the public has bet this game up to 49 I feel we are getting some good value. It is a Wednesday night game and the public loves to watch high scoring games. Well I think they are way off on this one I think we see this game go under the total and that is what I am going to play tonight. I will make a play on the under tonight for 1 unit.
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Tuesday Night 10/5 College Football
Wow what a tough loss to swallow last night! I really feel I was on the correct side last night by playing the under 48 in that game between the Patriots and Dolphins. The Patriots defense made big plays when they had to but their special teams did the damage to make that game go over the total. The first time in history that a team scores a passing touchdown, rushing touchdown, kick return for a touchdown, a blocked punt for a touchdown and an interception for a touchdown. That was a tough one but you have to look past it and see what you have on the table for tonight to invest in. Tonight I am going to move to the college field and take a look into Troy at Mid Tennessee St.
The opening line for this game opened with Mid Tennessee St as a 2.5 point favorite and was bet up to 3.5 at most books but has since come back down to 3 at almost all books. This game is very interesting since Tory has really dominated this Mid Tennessee St. team in recent years. Troy has actually won the past 4 meetings between these two teams and the past three they have won by no less than 14 all in which they were the favorite. So why this year is Mid Tennessee State the favorite? Both of these teams come into this game with 2-2 records and they are both 1-3 ATS. What make this year so much different than the past few years? The readings that I have done a lot of people believe this Troy team has played a tougher schedule already this year compared to Mid Tennessee St. So who will win and cover the spread in this game?
I have seen this numerous times this year where a team that had been dominated by their opponent in years past is either a favorite or a smaller underdog in years past. It is really showing the improvement of these teams. When investing in a game a lot of people look at previous games and look at teams that are bigger name programs then their opponent. This game has the same thing written all over it to me in my eyes. People are going to bet on Troy because they have dominated Mid Tennessee State and since Troy is the big name in the Sun Belt Conference they get more bets on them. Well I am sorry to say but these people are wrong tonight.
Mid Tennessee State is going to bring a fire to this game tonight. These two teams will not just be playing to show who the big dog is in the Sun Belt but they are also playing for the Palladium trophy. Troy has held onto this trophy for the past four years and the seniors on the Mid Tennessee State team want it back before they graduate. They know this is the year they can do it. They are getting their starting quarterback on the field tonight after a 4 game suspension. He would want nothing more than to win this game tonight and get that trophy back in their possession. Tonight is blackout night for Mid Tennessee State also so they will be wearing the black uniforms and all the coaches and fans will be decked out in black. Last year on black out night they won 31-14 against Memphis and they packed their stadium with over 28,000 fans. The crowd is going to be into this game, the players want this game and they want to get the leg up in the Sun Belt along with bringing that Palladium Trophy back home. I say play Mid Tennessee State tonight and watch them take it too Troy tonight. Good Luck Everyone!
The opening line for this game opened with Mid Tennessee St as a 2.5 point favorite and was bet up to 3.5 at most books but has since come back down to 3 at almost all books. This game is very interesting since Tory has really dominated this Mid Tennessee St. team in recent years. Troy has actually won the past 4 meetings between these two teams and the past three they have won by no less than 14 all in which they were the favorite. So why this year is Mid Tennessee State the favorite? Both of these teams come into this game with 2-2 records and they are both 1-3 ATS. What make this year so much different than the past few years? The readings that I have done a lot of people believe this Troy team has played a tougher schedule already this year compared to Mid Tennessee St. So who will win and cover the spread in this game?
I have seen this numerous times this year where a team that had been dominated by their opponent in years past is either a favorite or a smaller underdog in years past. It is really showing the improvement of these teams. When investing in a game a lot of people look at previous games and look at teams that are bigger name programs then their opponent. This game has the same thing written all over it to me in my eyes. People are going to bet on Troy because they have dominated Mid Tennessee State and since Troy is the big name in the Sun Belt Conference they get more bets on them. Well I am sorry to say but these people are wrong tonight.
Mid Tennessee State is going to bring a fire to this game tonight. These two teams will not just be playing to show who the big dog is in the Sun Belt but they are also playing for the Palladium trophy. Troy has held onto this trophy for the past four years and the seniors on the Mid Tennessee State team want it back before they graduate. They know this is the year they can do it. They are getting their starting quarterback on the field tonight after a 4 game suspension. He would want nothing more than to win this game tonight and get that trophy back in their possession. Tonight is blackout night for Mid Tennessee State also so they will be wearing the black uniforms and all the coaches and fans will be decked out in black. Last year on black out night they won 31-14 against Memphis and they packed their stadium with over 28,000 fans. The crowd is going to be into this game, the players want this game and they want to get the leg up in the Sun Belt along with bringing that Palladium Trophy back home. I say play Mid Tennessee State tonight and watch them take it too Troy tonight. Good Luck Everyone!
Monday, October 4, 2010
Monday Night Football 10/4
Monday Night Football is here and there is a big game on tap for tonight! The New England Patriots travel to Miami to take on the Dolphins in this AFC East game. The opening line for this game was set at a pick and has since been bet up to Miami -1. The over under for this game opened at 46.5 and has since been bet up to 48 at most books. I am going to break down what I like about the total in this game.
The Patriots come into this game off an 8 point victory over the Bills. The Patriots did score 38 points in that game but they also allowed 30 to a Bills team that is in the bottom of the league in every category just about. Well if you look at the box score you see that one of the Bills touchdowns came from a 95 yard kickoff return. So in all reality the Defense from New England only allowed 23 points last week the special teams gave up those other 7. I also see that Buffalo scored 9 points from field goals. This is telling me that the Patriots defense was able to make big stops against Buffalo to prevent them from anymore touchdowns and allow them to just settle for field goals. This will be the Patriots second road game on the season. The first one was in week 2 when they traveled to NY to take on the Jets in a game they lost 28-14. The struggles look like they are going to continue for the Patriots on the road. They scored only 14 and dating back to last year they only averaged 22 points per game on the road. They were only 2-6 on the road last year straight up and they only saw 2 of their 8 road games go over the posted total.
The Miami Dolphins come into this game off a tough lose to the Jets at home last week. The final score of that game was NY 31 Miami 23. After starting the season 2-0 and only allowing 10 points per game the first two weeks their defense took a step back and allowed 31 to the Jets. Miami really let up their defensive guard in that game and allowed the Jets to push them all over the field giving up big plays to the Jets. Miami’s offense put up 23 points last week against a tough Jets defense but the weeks before that they only scored 14 and 15 points on the Vikings and Bills. In the Vikings game they got a touchdown from their defense also. So the offense really broke open last week for the Dolphins. It was the passing offense though and not the run offense that they would like to have going.
Looking at this over under and seeing that it opened at 46.5 and has since been bet up to 48 I feel that the public believes that these two teams will score points because of all the big play makers on these two teams. Well I do not like the public’s decision on this game this week. The Patriots know they have to step up their defense so their offense does not have to carry them throughout the season. The Dolphins know they cannot give up another week of huge points at home considering they are only averaging 17 points per game this year. If they want to compete in this game their defense is going to have to stop Brady and his offensive weapons. Well how do you stop Brady? You have to keep him off the field. So I think we see the Dolphins really try and push their run game tonight to keep the Patriots high octane offense off the field. The last 10 times these teams have met and the total have only been set higher then 45, 4 times. Three of those four games have gone under the posted total. I really believe we a see a hard close fought game by both defenses and this game should end up somewhere in the range of 23-21 or 23-20. I am playing the under 48 for 1 unit.
The Patriots come into this game off an 8 point victory over the Bills. The Patriots did score 38 points in that game but they also allowed 30 to a Bills team that is in the bottom of the league in every category just about. Well if you look at the box score you see that one of the Bills touchdowns came from a 95 yard kickoff return. So in all reality the Defense from New England only allowed 23 points last week the special teams gave up those other 7. I also see that Buffalo scored 9 points from field goals. This is telling me that the Patriots defense was able to make big stops against Buffalo to prevent them from anymore touchdowns and allow them to just settle for field goals. This will be the Patriots second road game on the season. The first one was in week 2 when they traveled to NY to take on the Jets in a game they lost 28-14. The struggles look like they are going to continue for the Patriots on the road. They scored only 14 and dating back to last year they only averaged 22 points per game on the road. They were only 2-6 on the road last year straight up and they only saw 2 of their 8 road games go over the posted total.
The Miami Dolphins come into this game off a tough lose to the Jets at home last week. The final score of that game was NY 31 Miami 23. After starting the season 2-0 and only allowing 10 points per game the first two weeks their defense took a step back and allowed 31 to the Jets. Miami really let up their defensive guard in that game and allowed the Jets to push them all over the field giving up big plays to the Jets. Miami’s offense put up 23 points last week against a tough Jets defense but the weeks before that they only scored 14 and 15 points on the Vikings and Bills. In the Vikings game they got a touchdown from their defense also. So the offense really broke open last week for the Dolphins. It was the passing offense though and not the run offense that they would like to have going.
Looking at this over under and seeing that it opened at 46.5 and has since been bet up to 48 I feel that the public believes that these two teams will score points because of all the big play makers on these two teams. Well I do not like the public’s decision on this game this week. The Patriots know they have to step up their defense so their offense does not have to carry them throughout the season. The Dolphins know they cannot give up another week of huge points at home considering they are only averaging 17 points per game this year. If they want to compete in this game their defense is going to have to stop Brady and his offensive weapons. Well how do you stop Brady? You have to keep him off the field. So I think we see the Dolphins really try and push their run game tonight to keep the Patriots high octane offense off the field. The last 10 times these teams have met and the total have only been set higher then 45, 4 times. Three of those four games have gone under the posted total. I really believe we a see a hard close fought game by both defenses and this game should end up somewhere in the range of 23-21 or 23-20. I am playing the under 48 for 1 unit.
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