N Dakota +10.
Let me first say that their is no way Idaho should be a 10 point favorite. They should be somewhere between a 4 to 7 point favorite.
N Dakota comes into this game averaging 58 points per game and allowing 70 points per game. That is better then Idaho who is averaging 57 points per game and allowing 72 points per game.
I always figure out what Vegas thinks the score should be when they make the lines. This game has an O/U set at 129 and Idaho -10. So with that line it is saying that Idaho will win this game 69.5 to 59.5.
Well how is Idaho going to win by that score when they have not had a game all year where they gave up less then 60 points. It is not easy to cover a spread of +10 when your defense is not playing that great. N Dakota on the other hand has to allow 69.5 points. They have only allowed that twice all year so far.
I do not see Idaho being able to beat this N Dakota team by 10 points. I think this game will be a lot closer then what people think. I see a final score around 65-60.
I recommend playing N Dakota +10...
Good Luck Everyone!
Friday, December 3, 2010
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
12/1 Richmond at Old D
I tried to write a blog on this but it got erased. I do not have much time so their is no big write up today. Been a solid past two days hope I can keep it going.
Todays Play.
Richmond Old D under 122.
Two very good defensive teams going up against each other and the books know it will be more defense then offense.
Good Luck Everyone!
Todays Play.
Richmond Old D under 122.
Two very good defensive teams going up against each other and the books know it will be more defense then offense.
Good Luck Everyone!
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
11/30 NCAA Mens Basketball Bradley at W. Carolina
Bradley at W. Carolina Under 132.5
One of the first things I like to do is figure out what the books think the score is going to be of a game. Looking at this game they have W Carolina -3 and Over under of 132.5. I see them having this game end up W Carolina 68 Bradley 65.
Well Bradley is going to have to score 65 points and allow 68. Bradley had played 5 games against Division 1 opponents and has only scored more then 65 twice and that was 68 against TCU and 66 against N Illinois who is one of the worst defenses in college basketball ranked at 318 out of 345 teams. Bradley on the other hand is not going to allow 68 points. This team has only allowed more then 68 once this year out of the 5 games against Div 1 schools they played.
W Carolina comes into this game having to score 68 and allow 65 to have this game go over the total. W. Carolina has only scored 68 points or more in 1 of their 6 games against Division 1 schools this year. No W Carolina does not have that solid of a defense. They have allowed 65 or more points in 4 of their 6 games against Division 1 schools this year. So should this scare me that Bradley will score on W Carolina.
These two teams are not very good at shooting. Bradley is averaging only 38% from the field this year while W. Carolina is only averaging 39% from the field. Both of these teams are shooting under 70% from the line so we will see some missed free throws in this game tonight.
I have found a few trends I like for this game. The under is 4-1 in Bradley's last 5 non conference games. The under is 4-0-1 in W. Carolina's last 5 home games as a favorite. The under is 5-0 in W. Carolina's last 5 games against non conference opponents.
I do not see W Carolina scoring many points on this Bradley team. This Bradley team is in the top 100 for defenses in College basketball. Bradley is not that great of a shooting team and either is W Carolina. I really believe that these two teams will miss a lot of shots and the defense will step up for these two teams. I am going to play the under in this game.
Good Luck Everyone!
One of the first things I like to do is figure out what the books think the score is going to be of a game. Looking at this game they have W Carolina -3 and Over under of 132.5. I see them having this game end up W Carolina 68 Bradley 65.
Well Bradley is going to have to score 65 points and allow 68. Bradley had played 5 games against Division 1 opponents and has only scored more then 65 twice and that was 68 against TCU and 66 against N Illinois who is one of the worst defenses in college basketball ranked at 318 out of 345 teams. Bradley on the other hand is not going to allow 68 points. This team has only allowed more then 68 once this year out of the 5 games against Div 1 schools they played.
W Carolina comes into this game having to score 68 and allow 65 to have this game go over the total. W. Carolina has only scored 68 points or more in 1 of their 6 games against Division 1 schools this year. No W Carolina does not have that solid of a defense. They have allowed 65 or more points in 4 of their 6 games against Division 1 schools this year. So should this scare me that Bradley will score on W Carolina.
These two teams are not very good at shooting. Bradley is averaging only 38% from the field this year while W. Carolina is only averaging 39% from the field. Both of these teams are shooting under 70% from the line so we will see some missed free throws in this game tonight.
I have found a few trends I like for this game. The under is 4-1 in Bradley's last 5 non conference games. The under is 4-0-1 in W. Carolina's last 5 home games as a favorite. The under is 5-0 in W. Carolina's last 5 games against non conference opponents.
I do not see W Carolina scoring many points on this Bradley team. This Bradley team is in the top 100 for defenses in College basketball. Bradley is not that great of a shooting team and either is W Carolina. I really believe that these two teams will miss a lot of shots and the defense will step up for these two teams. I am going to play the under in this game.
Good Luck Everyone!
Monday, November 29, 2010
College Basketball 11/29
Well took a few days off for the holiday and now it is time to get back to work. Today I am going to jump to the College Basketball scene hoping that the game I like nets us a winner.
Play: St. Peters and Seton Hall Under 121.
These two teams will play a very slow pace in this game and both teams are not very good at shooting the ball. St Peters is averaging 37% from the field while SH is avergaing 40% from the field. St Peters is a very poor free throw shooting team at only 48%. So with two teams who play a slow pace and do not make shots this game is going to be low. The defense of both teams is sub par and should contribute into this game being a slow pace game.
A few trends I like for this game The under is 5-1 in SH's last 6 home games as a favorite of 7-12.5. The under is 7-2 in St. Peters last 9 road games as an underdog of 7-12.5 points. These two teams have played each other the past 2 years and both game finished under 110 points.
For SH to cover this game they will have to score about 66 points while St Peters scores 55. The thing is though St. Peters has only given up more then 66 points once this year. SH has actually scored less then 66 points in 3 of their 5 games this year. I truly believe that SH will not score 66 on St. Peters and this game should end in the 110-115 range. I am looking at a 60-50 type game.
Good Luck Everyone!
Play: St. Peters and Seton Hall Under 121.
These two teams will play a very slow pace in this game and both teams are not very good at shooting the ball. St Peters is averaging 37% from the field while SH is avergaing 40% from the field. St Peters is a very poor free throw shooting team at only 48%. So with two teams who play a slow pace and do not make shots this game is going to be low. The defense of both teams is sub par and should contribute into this game being a slow pace game.
A few trends I like for this game The under is 5-1 in SH's last 6 home games as a favorite of 7-12.5. The under is 7-2 in St. Peters last 9 road games as an underdog of 7-12.5 points. These two teams have played each other the past 2 years and both game finished under 110 points.
For SH to cover this game they will have to score about 66 points while St Peters scores 55. The thing is though St. Peters has only given up more then 66 points once this year. SH has actually scored less then 66 points in 3 of their 5 games this year. I truly believe that SH will not score 66 on St. Peters and this game should end in the 110-115 range. I am looking at a 60-50 type game.
Good Luck Everyone!
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Thanksgiving NFl 11/25
Lions +6.5.
I really like the Lions to give the Patriots a solid game today. This team has played very solid this year. They are 7-3 ATS on the year and 4-0 ATS at home this season. I know a lot of people will question why I like the Lions since they have not covered a spread on Turkey day since 2003. Well this is not the same team that we have seen in the past with the Lions. I know Matthew Stafford is out but Shaun Hill should actually have a good game against this young Patriots secondary. He has actually played solid the past two weeks throwing for 612 yards in those past 2 weeks and throwing 3 TD’S and 2 Interceptions. In those 2 weeks he is completing 63 % of his passes. This year at home he has played in 2 games throwing for 562 yards and having 5 TD’S while throwing just 2 Interceptions.
The Patriots come into this game playing some real good football as of late. The have beaten the Steelers and Colts in back to back weeks here. Now the thing is for them though they are in a very tough spot. They are coming off two big wins over playoff contending teams and now they get the last place Lions on a short week with travel and then go back home to take on their big rival in the Jets. We could see the Patriots not mentally into this game. I know Bill Belichick is a very good coach and he will do everything in his power to keep his guys focused but this is a very tough spot for them.
I really believe that the Patriots are going to look past the Lions in this game and the Lions are going to catch them and keep this game very close. If you have Shaun Hill and any of the Lions wide receivers or tight end in fantasy football you should be starting them this week. Jahvid Best looks like he is not going to be playing and with the Lions already pass happy we should see more passing going up against a young secondary. We should see the Lions put up points on the board. I am going to play the Lions +6.5 on this game hoping that they can break that streak of non covers on Thanksgiving Day.
Good Luck Everyone!
Happy Thanksgiving!
No Blog Tomorrow .Will be spending the day golfing with my father in law if it doesn't rain.
I really like the Lions to give the Patriots a solid game today. This team has played very solid this year. They are 7-3 ATS on the year and 4-0 ATS at home this season. I know a lot of people will question why I like the Lions since they have not covered a spread on Turkey day since 2003. Well this is not the same team that we have seen in the past with the Lions. I know Matthew Stafford is out but Shaun Hill should actually have a good game against this young Patriots secondary. He has actually played solid the past two weeks throwing for 612 yards in those past 2 weeks and throwing 3 TD’S and 2 Interceptions. In those 2 weeks he is completing 63 % of his passes. This year at home he has played in 2 games throwing for 562 yards and having 5 TD’S while throwing just 2 Interceptions.
The Patriots come into this game playing some real good football as of late. The have beaten the Steelers and Colts in back to back weeks here. Now the thing is for them though they are in a very tough spot. They are coming off two big wins over playoff contending teams and now they get the last place Lions on a short week with travel and then go back home to take on their big rival in the Jets. We could see the Patriots not mentally into this game. I know Bill Belichick is a very good coach and he will do everything in his power to keep his guys focused but this is a very tough spot for them.
I really believe that the Patriots are going to look past the Lions in this game and the Lions are going to catch them and keep this game very close. If you have Shaun Hill and any of the Lions wide receivers or tight end in fantasy football you should be starting them this week. Jahvid Best looks like he is not going to be playing and with the Lions already pass happy we should see more passing going up against a young secondary. We should see the Lions put up points on the board. I am going to play the Lions +6.5 on this game hoping that they can break that streak of non covers on Thanksgiving Day.
Good Luck Everyone!
Happy Thanksgiving!
No Blog Tomorrow .Will be spending the day golfing with my father in law if it doesn't rain.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
NBA 11/24
Bulls and Suns under 210.
I know the Bulls played last night and they should be tired from a tough game against the Lakers so this game will get slowed down. The Bulls know if they want to compete with these fast pace teams they need to slow the game down. They have actually done that this season. They have played 7 games this year against teams that are in the top 10 in scoring. They have seen 5 of those 7 games go under the total. Four of them were on the road they have actually seen 3 of those 4 go under the total. They know to win against these teams that score a lot of points and have a lot of possessions they need to slow it down.
Chicago comes into this game playing very good defense their past 7 games. They have only given up more then 100 points once in those 7 games. They are allowing only 93 points per game in those 7 games. This season they are only allowing 99 points per game on the road. They have only allowed more then 107 points this season 2 times out of 12 games. One of those games also had to go to OT for Boston to get over 107 points. I really look for Chicago to play solid defense again tonight.
The Suns come into this game averaging 107 points per game on the year. They were actually in a little bit of a funk for a few games were they scored no more then 105 in any of the four games they played before they broke out and dropped 123 on a horrible Houston team. Everyone knows that this Suns team scores points but how will they do against a very good defensive team like the Bulls. They just came off playing two very good defensive teams in the Magic and Heat and they only scored 96 and 89 points in those games.
Their are a few trends I like for this game. The over under is 0-5 in the last 5 homes games for the Suns against the Central division. The under is 6-0 in the Bulls last 6 games against the Western Conference. The Under is 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 games as a road underdog. Dating back to last season the the over under is 6-12-2 in the Bulls games where they are playing on the back end of a back to back.
I really believe that the Bulls slow this game down and make the Suns work for their points. They know that is going to be the only way they can win this game. They have stepped their defense up and we should see it again tonight. This team is very capable of shutting high powered offenses down and we know that the Suns struggle to score points against tough defenses. So I will play the under in this one tonight.
Good Luck Everyone!
I know the Bulls played last night and they should be tired from a tough game against the Lakers so this game will get slowed down. The Bulls know if they want to compete with these fast pace teams they need to slow the game down. They have actually done that this season. They have played 7 games this year against teams that are in the top 10 in scoring. They have seen 5 of those 7 games go under the total. Four of them were on the road they have actually seen 3 of those 4 go under the total. They know to win against these teams that score a lot of points and have a lot of possessions they need to slow it down.
Chicago comes into this game playing very good defense their past 7 games. They have only given up more then 100 points once in those 7 games. They are allowing only 93 points per game in those 7 games. This season they are only allowing 99 points per game on the road. They have only allowed more then 107 points this season 2 times out of 12 games. One of those games also had to go to OT for Boston to get over 107 points. I really look for Chicago to play solid defense again tonight.
The Suns come into this game averaging 107 points per game on the year. They were actually in a little bit of a funk for a few games were they scored no more then 105 in any of the four games they played before they broke out and dropped 123 on a horrible Houston team. Everyone knows that this Suns team scores points but how will they do against a very good defensive team like the Bulls. They just came off playing two very good defensive teams in the Magic and Heat and they only scored 96 and 89 points in those games.
Their are a few trends I like for this game. The over under is 0-5 in the last 5 homes games for the Suns against the Central division. The under is 6-0 in the Bulls last 6 games against the Western Conference. The Under is 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 games as a road underdog. Dating back to last season the the over under is 6-12-2 in the Bulls games where they are playing on the back end of a back to back.
I really believe that the Bulls slow this game down and make the Suns work for their points. They know that is going to be the only way they can win this game. They have stepped their defense up and we should see it again tonight. This team is very capable of shutting high powered offenses down and we know that the Suns struggle to score points against tough defenses. So I will play the under in this one tonight.
Good Luck Everyone!
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
NBA 11/23
Detroit +9.5
Detroit comes into this game actually playig much better basketball. Winning 3 out of their last 5 and also going 7-3 ATS in thier last 10 games. They are actually 5-2 ATS on the road this year. Detroit is also 2-1 ATS on the front end of a back to back this year.
Dallas comes into this game actually playing better on the road then at home. They are 4-1 away this year and 4-1 ATS in those 5 games. When they come home they are 4-3 and only 1-4-2 ATS at home this year. They seem to not play as strong at home then they do away. It is kind of head sratching since most teams play better at home but maybe they feel more pressure to win at home then they do away. I do not know but it helps us bettors since you can not make them a small dog over a bad team at home since then all the money would come in on them and books want even action.
Some of the trends I like for this game is as followed. Dallas is 2-16-2 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite of 8 plus points.Dallas is 4-20-2 ATS in their last 26 home against a team with a losing road record. The Pistons are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games as an underdog. The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Mavs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the Central division. The road team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Detroit has played Dallas very tough the last 3 meeting. Yes Dallas has won all 3 of them but by no more then 5 points in those 3 games. Dallas seems to play down to competition at home while Detroit seems to get up for these games against top teams. I just do not see Dallas blowing this Detroit team out who is playing better basketball as of late. I think this is going to be a closer game then expected and Detroit should cover this line. So I will play the Pistons in this one.
Good Luck everyone!
Detroit comes into this game actually playig much better basketball. Winning 3 out of their last 5 and also going 7-3 ATS in thier last 10 games. They are actually 5-2 ATS on the road this year. Detroit is also 2-1 ATS on the front end of a back to back this year.
Dallas comes into this game actually playing better on the road then at home. They are 4-1 away this year and 4-1 ATS in those 5 games. When they come home they are 4-3 and only 1-4-2 ATS at home this year. They seem to not play as strong at home then they do away. It is kind of head sratching since most teams play better at home but maybe they feel more pressure to win at home then they do away. I do not know but it helps us bettors since you can not make them a small dog over a bad team at home since then all the money would come in on them and books want even action.
Some of the trends I like for this game is as followed. Dallas is 2-16-2 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite of 8 plus points.Dallas is 4-20-2 ATS in their last 26 home against a team with a losing road record. The Pistons are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games as an underdog. The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Mavs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the Central division. The road team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Detroit has played Dallas very tough the last 3 meeting. Yes Dallas has won all 3 of them but by no more then 5 points in those 3 games. Dallas seems to play down to competition at home while Detroit seems to get up for these games against top teams. I just do not see Dallas blowing this Detroit team out who is playing better basketball as of late. I think this is going to be a closer game then expected and Detroit should cover this line. So I will play the Pistons in this one.
Good Luck everyone!
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