Bradley at W. Carolina Under 132.5
One of the first things I like to do is figure out what the books think the score is going to be of a game. Looking at this game they have W Carolina -3 and Over under of 132.5. I see them having this game end up W Carolina 68 Bradley 65.
Well Bradley is going to have to score 65 points and allow 68. Bradley had played 5 games against Division 1 opponents and has only scored more then 65 twice and that was 68 against TCU and 66 against N Illinois who is one of the worst defenses in college basketball ranked at 318 out of 345 teams. Bradley on the other hand is not going to allow 68 points. This team has only allowed more then 68 once this year out of the 5 games against Div 1 schools they played.
W Carolina comes into this game having to score 68 and allow 65 to have this game go over the total. W. Carolina has only scored 68 points or more in 1 of their 6 games against Division 1 schools this year. No W Carolina does not have that solid of a defense. They have allowed 65 or more points in 4 of their 6 games against Division 1 schools this year. So should this scare me that Bradley will score on W Carolina.
These two teams are not very good at shooting. Bradley is averaging only 38% from the field this year while W. Carolina is only averaging 39% from the field. Both of these teams are shooting under 70% from the line so we will see some missed free throws in this game tonight.
I have found a few trends I like for this game. The under is 4-1 in Bradley's last 5 non conference games. The under is 4-0-1 in W. Carolina's last 5 home games as a favorite. The under is 5-0 in W. Carolina's last 5 games against non conference opponents.
I do not see W Carolina scoring many points on this Bradley team. This Bradley team is in the top 100 for defenses in College basketball. Bradley is not that great of a shooting team and either is W Carolina. I really believe that these two teams will miss a lot of shots and the defense will step up for these two teams. I am going to play the under in this game.
Good Luck Everyone!
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Monday, November 29, 2010
College Basketball 11/29
Well took a few days off for the holiday and now it is time to get back to work. Today I am going to jump to the College Basketball scene hoping that the game I like nets us a winner.
Play: St. Peters and Seton Hall Under 121.
These two teams will play a very slow pace in this game and both teams are not very good at shooting the ball. St Peters is averaging 37% from the field while SH is avergaing 40% from the field. St Peters is a very poor free throw shooting team at only 48%. So with two teams who play a slow pace and do not make shots this game is going to be low. The defense of both teams is sub par and should contribute into this game being a slow pace game.
A few trends I like for this game The under is 5-1 in SH's last 6 home games as a favorite of 7-12.5. The under is 7-2 in St. Peters last 9 road games as an underdog of 7-12.5 points. These two teams have played each other the past 2 years and both game finished under 110 points.
For SH to cover this game they will have to score about 66 points while St Peters scores 55. The thing is though St. Peters has only given up more then 66 points once this year. SH has actually scored less then 66 points in 3 of their 5 games this year. I truly believe that SH will not score 66 on St. Peters and this game should end in the 110-115 range. I am looking at a 60-50 type game.
Good Luck Everyone!
Play: St. Peters and Seton Hall Under 121.
These two teams will play a very slow pace in this game and both teams are not very good at shooting the ball. St Peters is averaging 37% from the field while SH is avergaing 40% from the field. St Peters is a very poor free throw shooting team at only 48%. So with two teams who play a slow pace and do not make shots this game is going to be low. The defense of both teams is sub par and should contribute into this game being a slow pace game.
A few trends I like for this game The under is 5-1 in SH's last 6 home games as a favorite of 7-12.5. The under is 7-2 in St. Peters last 9 road games as an underdog of 7-12.5 points. These two teams have played each other the past 2 years and both game finished under 110 points.
For SH to cover this game they will have to score about 66 points while St Peters scores 55. The thing is though St. Peters has only given up more then 66 points once this year. SH has actually scored less then 66 points in 3 of their 5 games this year. I truly believe that SH will not score 66 on St. Peters and this game should end in the 110-115 range. I am looking at a 60-50 type game.
Good Luck Everyone!
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Thanksgiving NFl 11/25
Lions +6.5.
I really like the Lions to give the Patriots a solid game today. This team has played very solid this year. They are 7-3 ATS on the year and 4-0 ATS at home this season. I know a lot of people will question why I like the Lions since they have not covered a spread on Turkey day since 2003. Well this is not the same team that we have seen in the past with the Lions. I know Matthew Stafford is out but Shaun Hill should actually have a good game against this young Patriots secondary. He has actually played solid the past two weeks throwing for 612 yards in those past 2 weeks and throwing 3 TD’S and 2 Interceptions. In those 2 weeks he is completing 63 % of his passes. This year at home he has played in 2 games throwing for 562 yards and having 5 TD’S while throwing just 2 Interceptions.
The Patriots come into this game playing some real good football as of late. The have beaten the Steelers and Colts in back to back weeks here. Now the thing is for them though they are in a very tough spot. They are coming off two big wins over playoff contending teams and now they get the last place Lions on a short week with travel and then go back home to take on their big rival in the Jets. We could see the Patriots not mentally into this game. I know Bill Belichick is a very good coach and he will do everything in his power to keep his guys focused but this is a very tough spot for them.
I really believe that the Patriots are going to look past the Lions in this game and the Lions are going to catch them and keep this game very close. If you have Shaun Hill and any of the Lions wide receivers or tight end in fantasy football you should be starting them this week. Jahvid Best looks like he is not going to be playing and with the Lions already pass happy we should see more passing going up against a young secondary. We should see the Lions put up points on the board. I am going to play the Lions +6.5 on this game hoping that they can break that streak of non covers on Thanksgiving Day.
Good Luck Everyone!
Happy Thanksgiving!
No Blog Tomorrow .Will be spending the day golfing with my father in law if it doesn't rain.
I really like the Lions to give the Patriots a solid game today. This team has played very solid this year. They are 7-3 ATS on the year and 4-0 ATS at home this season. I know a lot of people will question why I like the Lions since they have not covered a spread on Turkey day since 2003. Well this is not the same team that we have seen in the past with the Lions. I know Matthew Stafford is out but Shaun Hill should actually have a good game against this young Patriots secondary. He has actually played solid the past two weeks throwing for 612 yards in those past 2 weeks and throwing 3 TD’S and 2 Interceptions. In those 2 weeks he is completing 63 % of his passes. This year at home he has played in 2 games throwing for 562 yards and having 5 TD’S while throwing just 2 Interceptions.
The Patriots come into this game playing some real good football as of late. The have beaten the Steelers and Colts in back to back weeks here. Now the thing is for them though they are in a very tough spot. They are coming off two big wins over playoff contending teams and now they get the last place Lions on a short week with travel and then go back home to take on their big rival in the Jets. We could see the Patriots not mentally into this game. I know Bill Belichick is a very good coach and he will do everything in his power to keep his guys focused but this is a very tough spot for them.
I really believe that the Patriots are going to look past the Lions in this game and the Lions are going to catch them and keep this game very close. If you have Shaun Hill and any of the Lions wide receivers or tight end in fantasy football you should be starting them this week. Jahvid Best looks like he is not going to be playing and with the Lions already pass happy we should see more passing going up against a young secondary. We should see the Lions put up points on the board. I am going to play the Lions +6.5 on this game hoping that they can break that streak of non covers on Thanksgiving Day.
Good Luck Everyone!
Happy Thanksgiving!
No Blog Tomorrow .Will be spending the day golfing with my father in law if it doesn't rain.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
NBA 11/24
Bulls and Suns under 210.
I know the Bulls played last night and they should be tired from a tough game against the Lakers so this game will get slowed down. The Bulls know if they want to compete with these fast pace teams they need to slow the game down. They have actually done that this season. They have played 7 games this year against teams that are in the top 10 in scoring. They have seen 5 of those 7 games go under the total. Four of them were on the road they have actually seen 3 of those 4 go under the total. They know to win against these teams that score a lot of points and have a lot of possessions they need to slow it down.
Chicago comes into this game playing very good defense their past 7 games. They have only given up more then 100 points once in those 7 games. They are allowing only 93 points per game in those 7 games. This season they are only allowing 99 points per game on the road. They have only allowed more then 107 points this season 2 times out of 12 games. One of those games also had to go to OT for Boston to get over 107 points. I really look for Chicago to play solid defense again tonight.
The Suns come into this game averaging 107 points per game on the year. They were actually in a little bit of a funk for a few games were they scored no more then 105 in any of the four games they played before they broke out and dropped 123 on a horrible Houston team. Everyone knows that this Suns team scores points but how will they do against a very good defensive team like the Bulls. They just came off playing two very good defensive teams in the Magic and Heat and they only scored 96 and 89 points in those games.
Their are a few trends I like for this game. The over under is 0-5 in the last 5 homes games for the Suns against the Central division. The under is 6-0 in the Bulls last 6 games against the Western Conference. The Under is 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 games as a road underdog. Dating back to last season the the over under is 6-12-2 in the Bulls games where they are playing on the back end of a back to back.
I really believe that the Bulls slow this game down and make the Suns work for their points. They know that is going to be the only way they can win this game. They have stepped their defense up and we should see it again tonight. This team is very capable of shutting high powered offenses down and we know that the Suns struggle to score points against tough defenses. So I will play the under in this one tonight.
Good Luck Everyone!
I know the Bulls played last night and they should be tired from a tough game against the Lakers so this game will get slowed down. The Bulls know if they want to compete with these fast pace teams they need to slow the game down. They have actually done that this season. They have played 7 games this year against teams that are in the top 10 in scoring. They have seen 5 of those 7 games go under the total. Four of them were on the road they have actually seen 3 of those 4 go under the total. They know to win against these teams that score a lot of points and have a lot of possessions they need to slow it down.
Chicago comes into this game playing very good defense their past 7 games. They have only given up more then 100 points once in those 7 games. They are allowing only 93 points per game in those 7 games. This season they are only allowing 99 points per game on the road. They have only allowed more then 107 points this season 2 times out of 12 games. One of those games also had to go to OT for Boston to get over 107 points. I really look for Chicago to play solid defense again tonight.
The Suns come into this game averaging 107 points per game on the year. They were actually in a little bit of a funk for a few games were they scored no more then 105 in any of the four games they played before they broke out and dropped 123 on a horrible Houston team. Everyone knows that this Suns team scores points but how will they do against a very good defensive team like the Bulls. They just came off playing two very good defensive teams in the Magic and Heat and they only scored 96 and 89 points in those games.
Their are a few trends I like for this game. The over under is 0-5 in the last 5 homes games for the Suns against the Central division. The under is 6-0 in the Bulls last 6 games against the Western Conference. The Under is 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 games as a road underdog. Dating back to last season the the over under is 6-12-2 in the Bulls games where they are playing on the back end of a back to back.
I really believe that the Bulls slow this game down and make the Suns work for their points. They know that is going to be the only way they can win this game. They have stepped their defense up and we should see it again tonight. This team is very capable of shutting high powered offenses down and we know that the Suns struggle to score points against tough defenses. So I will play the under in this one tonight.
Good Luck Everyone!
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
NBA 11/23
Detroit +9.5
Detroit comes into this game actually playig much better basketball. Winning 3 out of their last 5 and also going 7-3 ATS in thier last 10 games. They are actually 5-2 ATS on the road this year. Detroit is also 2-1 ATS on the front end of a back to back this year.
Dallas comes into this game actually playing better on the road then at home. They are 4-1 away this year and 4-1 ATS in those 5 games. When they come home they are 4-3 and only 1-4-2 ATS at home this year. They seem to not play as strong at home then they do away. It is kind of head sratching since most teams play better at home but maybe they feel more pressure to win at home then they do away. I do not know but it helps us bettors since you can not make them a small dog over a bad team at home since then all the money would come in on them and books want even action.
Some of the trends I like for this game is as followed. Dallas is 2-16-2 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite of 8 plus points.Dallas is 4-20-2 ATS in their last 26 home against a team with a losing road record. The Pistons are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games as an underdog. The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Mavs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the Central division. The road team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Detroit has played Dallas very tough the last 3 meeting. Yes Dallas has won all 3 of them but by no more then 5 points in those 3 games. Dallas seems to play down to competition at home while Detroit seems to get up for these games against top teams. I just do not see Dallas blowing this Detroit team out who is playing better basketball as of late. I think this is going to be a closer game then expected and Detroit should cover this line. So I will play the Pistons in this one.
Good Luck everyone!
Detroit comes into this game actually playig much better basketball. Winning 3 out of their last 5 and also going 7-3 ATS in thier last 10 games. They are actually 5-2 ATS on the road this year. Detroit is also 2-1 ATS on the front end of a back to back this year.
Dallas comes into this game actually playing better on the road then at home. They are 4-1 away this year and 4-1 ATS in those 5 games. When they come home they are 4-3 and only 1-4-2 ATS at home this year. They seem to not play as strong at home then they do away. It is kind of head sratching since most teams play better at home but maybe they feel more pressure to win at home then they do away. I do not know but it helps us bettors since you can not make them a small dog over a bad team at home since then all the money would come in on them and books want even action.
Some of the trends I like for this game is as followed. Dallas is 2-16-2 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite of 8 plus points.Dallas is 4-20-2 ATS in their last 26 home against a team with a losing road record. The Pistons are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games as an underdog. The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Mavs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the Central division. The road team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Detroit has played Dallas very tough the last 3 meeting. Yes Dallas has won all 3 of them but by no more then 5 points in those 3 games. Dallas seems to play down to competition at home while Detroit seems to get up for these games against top teams. I just do not see Dallas blowing this Detroit team out who is playing better basketball as of late. I think this is going to be a closer game then expected and Detroit should cover this line. So I will play the Pistons in this one.
Good Luck everyone!
Monday, November 22, 2010
NBA 11/22
Suns and Rockets Under 213.5
These Two teams come into this game on a bit of a scoring drought.Which is why I am liking the under in this game.
The Suns are averaging only 97 points per game their last 3 games. Which is down 9 points from their yearly avg of 106. I know they have all been on the road but they were averaging 108 points per game on the road before this road trip.
Houston comes into this game averaging 96 points per game their last 3 games which is down from their yearly average of 105 per game. Houston on the year has actually averaged less at home then on the road. they are averaging 101 points per game at home and 106 on the road. The one thing about Houston though is they have seen 6 of their last 7 go under the total since losing Aaron Brooks to injury. They were averaging 110 points per game before his injury and now since his injury they are averaging only 101 points per game.
The Suns are on their final game of this road trip where they have seen their scoring drop and they are 0-3 in these past 3 game son the road trip. I am sure they just want to get back home and get back to a comfortable place for them. I do not see them scoring like the usually do since I feel the effort might be down a little bit. Houston really needs a win and I am sure they are going to put up a fight in this one and we should see their defense play a little bit stronger.
1 Unit on the Under
Good Luck Everyone!
These Two teams come into this game on a bit of a scoring drought.Which is why I am liking the under in this game.
The Suns are averaging only 97 points per game their last 3 games. Which is down 9 points from their yearly avg of 106. I know they have all been on the road but they were averaging 108 points per game on the road before this road trip.
Houston comes into this game averaging 96 points per game their last 3 games which is down from their yearly average of 105 per game. Houston on the year has actually averaged less at home then on the road. they are averaging 101 points per game at home and 106 on the road. The one thing about Houston though is they have seen 6 of their last 7 go under the total since losing Aaron Brooks to injury. They were averaging 110 points per game before his injury and now since his injury they are averaging only 101 points per game.
The Suns are on their final game of this road trip where they have seen their scoring drop and they are 0-3 in these past 3 game son the road trip. I am sure they just want to get back home and get back to a comfortable place for them. I do not see them scoring like the usually do since I feel the effort might be down a little bit. Houston really needs a win and I am sure they are going to put up a fight in this one and we should see their defense play a little bit stronger.
1 Unit on the Under
Good Luck Everyone!
Sunday, November 21, 2010
NBA 11/21
NO and Kings Over 195
We are getting great value in this game since it has been bet down from 198. I really like this game since we have the Hornets who are a great defensive team and the books open this line at 198. The Kings are not a strong scoring team they are only averaging 97 points per game at home this year. So again why would this open at 198 especially since the Hornets are only allowing 92 points per game. Well the book must know that these teams will score points.
The Hornets come into this game averaging 102 points per game their last 5 games. That is 4 points more then their previous five games. They are allowing 93 points per game their last 5 games up two points from the 91 they were allowing the previous 5 games.
The Kings comes into this game averaging 93 points per game and allowing 99 points per game their last 5 games. Their defense has actually gotten better from the previous 5 games where they were allowing 106 points per game. Their scoring has even gotten worse. They were scoring 102 points per game the previous 5 and now only 93. So I again have to wonder why this game opens at 198.
A few trends I like for this game are as followed. The Hornets on 1 days rest have seen 4 of their 5 games this year go over the total. The average score in those games are 197 points. The Kings on 1 day rest have seen 3 of their 6 go over the total and the average score in those games is 198. The over is 5-1 in the Hornets last 6 games against the Pacific division. The over is 12-5 the last 17 games for the Hornets against a team with a losing home record. The Kings have seen 6 of their last 7 go over the total their last 7 games as an underdog. The over is 5-1 in the Kings last 6 games against a team with a winning % above .600. The over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Sacramento between these two teams.
When I saw this line open at 198 I had to really think about why the books would open this so high with how strong of a defense the Hornets have. Then I saw everyone betting the under that it moved the line 3 points I knew the public was thinking the same thing. These two teams I believe will play a close game and I feel we will see a game that ends over 200 total I will play the under 195 tonight.
Good Luck Everyone!
We are getting great value in this game since it has been bet down from 198. I really like this game since we have the Hornets who are a great defensive team and the books open this line at 198. The Kings are not a strong scoring team they are only averaging 97 points per game at home this year. So again why would this open at 198 especially since the Hornets are only allowing 92 points per game. Well the book must know that these teams will score points.
The Hornets come into this game averaging 102 points per game their last 5 games. That is 4 points more then their previous five games. They are allowing 93 points per game their last 5 games up two points from the 91 they were allowing the previous 5 games.
The Kings comes into this game averaging 93 points per game and allowing 99 points per game their last 5 games. Their defense has actually gotten better from the previous 5 games where they were allowing 106 points per game. Their scoring has even gotten worse. They were scoring 102 points per game the previous 5 and now only 93. So I again have to wonder why this game opens at 198.
A few trends I like for this game are as followed. The Hornets on 1 days rest have seen 4 of their 5 games this year go over the total. The average score in those games are 197 points. The Kings on 1 day rest have seen 3 of their 6 go over the total and the average score in those games is 198. The over is 5-1 in the Hornets last 6 games against the Pacific division. The over is 12-5 the last 17 games for the Hornets against a team with a losing home record. The Kings have seen 6 of their last 7 go over the total their last 7 games as an underdog. The over is 5-1 in the Kings last 6 games against a team with a winning % above .600. The over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Sacramento between these two teams.
When I saw this line open at 198 I had to really think about why the books would open this so high with how strong of a defense the Hornets have. Then I saw everyone betting the under that it moved the line 3 points I knew the public was thinking the same thing. These two teams I believe will play a close game and I feel we will see a game that ends over 200 total I will play the under 195 tonight.
Good Luck Everyone!
Saturday, November 20, 2010
NBA 11/20
NY and Clips Over 210
This game features one team that scores and whole bunch and another team that does not score that much. The Line is 210. What is that telling you? The books know that the Clips will score points. They average 95 points per game on the year and the Knicks average 106 and this line is at 210. Well both of these teams do not play defense. The Clips are allowing 105 points per game while the Knicks are allowing 108 points per game.
The Clippers have played 6 home games this year and have not seen a total set over 200 at home on the year. After starting the season on an under streak they have fallen apart on defense and just letting teams score at ease. Their last 8 games they have allowed more then 100 points in those 8 games and are allowing an average of 109 points per game those 8 games. The over is 6-2 in those 8 games. Now they get the knicks who are just scoring at will.
The Knicks are averging 112 points per game over their last 6 games and allowing 114 points per game in those 6 games. In those 6 games they have seen 4 of those 6 go over the posted total. So along with scoring a ton of points they also have forgotten how to play defense. To top it off for the Knicks they have played 4 games this year on the back end of a back to back and are seeing those games average about 214 points.
Some trends that I like for this game are as followed. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meeting between these two teams. The Average line for those 5 games was 208. We are talking only two points for two teams that are posting alot of overs lately. The over is 8-0 in the Knicks last 8 games against the Pacific division. The over is 14-4 in the Knicks last 18 games on the road. The over is 8-1-1 in the Clippers last 10 meeting against Eastern Conf teams. The over is 4-0 playing on 1 day rest.
Until one of these teams decides to play defense their is no way I could play and under with them. The Books know that this game is going to be more of a NY pace then a Clippers pace by setting this line up at 210. So I will say that these two teams end up playing over the posted total in this game.
Good Luck Everyone!
This game features one team that scores and whole bunch and another team that does not score that much. The Line is 210. What is that telling you? The books know that the Clips will score points. They average 95 points per game on the year and the Knicks average 106 and this line is at 210. Well both of these teams do not play defense. The Clips are allowing 105 points per game while the Knicks are allowing 108 points per game.
The Clippers have played 6 home games this year and have not seen a total set over 200 at home on the year. After starting the season on an under streak they have fallen apart on defense and just letting teams score at ease. Their last 8 games they have allowed more then 100 points in those 8 games and are allowing an average of 109 points per game those 8 games. The over is 6-2 in those 8 games. Now they get the knicks who are just scoring at will.
The Knicks are averging 112 points per game over their last 6 games and allowing 114 points per game in those 6 games. In those 6 games they have seen 4 of those 6 go over the posted total. So along with scoring a ton of points they also have forgotten how to play defense. To top it off for the Knicks they have played 4 games this year on the back end of a back to back and are seeing those games average about 214 points.
Some trends that I like for this game are as followed. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meeting between these two teams. The Average line for those 5 games was 208. We are talking only two points for two teams that are posting alot of overs lately. The over is 8-0 in the Knicks last 8 games against the Pacific division. The over is 14-4 in the Knicks last 18 games on the road. The over is 8-1-1 in the Clippers last 10 meeting against Eastern Conf teams. The over is 4-0 playing on 1 day rest.
Until one of these teams decides to play defense their is no way I could play and under with them. The Books know that this game is going to be more of a NY pace then a Clippers pace by setting this line up at 210. So I will say that these two teams end up playing over the posted total in this game.
Good Luck Everyone!
Thursday, November 18, 2010
NFL 11/18
Miami -1.5.
I know Miami does not have their starting QB but I think Thigpen will be just fine tonight. Miami has played som every good teams this year. They have played 9 games and 6 of them came against teams that have a good shot to make the playoffs. Their schedule was brutal so far. Unlike the bears who have had the likes of playing Detroit, Seattle, Carolina, Buffalo, Dallas all teams that have no shot of making the playoffs. Showing me that the Dolphins ar ebattled tested while the Bears have not really played that tough of a schedule. It is going to be hard for Chicago on a short week traveling to Miami. I think Miami's D will show up and play a solid game and force Cutler into his usual self of mistakes and like I said Thigpen should be just fine. I will play Miami -1.5 for 1 unit tonight.
Good Luck Everyone!
I know Miami does not have their starting QB but I think Thigpen will be just fine tonight. Miami has played som every good teams this year. They have played 9 games and 6 of them came against teams that have a good shot to make the playoffs. Their schedule was brutal so far. Unlike the bears who have had the likes of playing Detroit, Seattle, Carolina, Buffalo, Dallas all teams that have no shot of making the playoffs. Showing me that the Dolphins ar ebattled tested while the Bears have not really played that tough of a schedule. It is going to be hard for Chicago on a short week traveling to Miami. I think Miami's D will show up and play a solid game and force Cutler into his usual self of mistakes and like I said Thigpen should be just fine. I will play Miami -1.5 for 1 unit tonight.
Good Luck Everyone!
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
NBA 11/17
Well the free play did not come through last night. But tonight I am hoping to get back to the winning ways. The paid plays are up over at http://www.pickmonitor.com/profile/jeepsguy004.
Tonight free play now.
Washington +13.5
Boston is a very good basketball team, but they are not a team that cares about blowing others out of the building. They have played 4 home games this year and they have covered only 1 of them. Yes they won all 4 of them but they just don't blow teams out. Washington for some reason seems to play Boston well. The last 5 games these two have played against each other you have never seen the Wizards lose by less then 11. They even went into Boston last year and won there. The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Wizards are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a home winning % of .600 or greater. This shows me that the Wizards do not lay down for good teams.
Boston on the other hand is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games at home against teams with a road winning % of .400 or less. The Celtics are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 11 plus. Like I said they do not blow teams out and they do not care, they are a veteran team who just wants to win. I am going to play the Wizards +13.5 for 1 unit.
Good Luck Everyone!
Tonight free play now.
Washington +13.5
Boston is a very good basketball team, but they are not a team that cares about blowing others out of the building. They have played 4 home games this year and they have covered only 1 of them. Yes they won all 4 of them but they just don't blow teams out. Washington for some reason seems to play Boston well. The last 5 games these two have played against each other you have never seen the Wizards lose by less then 11. They even went into Boston last year and won there. The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Wizards are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a home winning % of .600 or greater. This shows me that the Wizards do not lay down for good teams.
Boston on the other hand is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games at home against teams with a road winning % of .400 or less. The Celtics are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 11 plus. Like I said they do not blow teams out and they do not care, they are a veteran team who just wants to win. I am going to play the Wizards +13.5 for 1 unit.
Good Luck Everyone!
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
NBA 11/16
Picked up a nice win with Denevr and Phoenix under last night. I am going to jump right back on Denver again and play the Under 219 between them and NY tonight.
The line opened at 217.5 and has since been bet up to 219. I think we are getting great value in this game. Denver comes in on a back to back. Denver has played 3 games on the back end of a back to back and 2 of those 3 have gone under the total. Denver has also seen 6 of their last 8 games go under against Eastern Conference teams. Ny comes into Denver averaging 101 points the last 5 trips their. 4 out of their last 5 trips their they have not seen a game over over 219 points. They have played 5 road games this year and are averaging 100 points per game. NY has seen 4 of its last 5 against the Northwest going under the total and those 5 games have averaged 204 points. NY has also seen the total go under the number the last 4 games on 1 days rest. I truly believe with Denver playing last night will not put in as much effort tonight against a hapless Knicks team. I also see NY starting their first game of their road trip to Denver is usually tough since it seems teams have problems adjusting to that altitude. So I feel this game will stay under the total tonight. 1 unit on the under for me.
Good Luck Everyone
The line opened at 217.5 and has since been bet up to 219. I think we are getting great value in this game. Denver comes in on a back to back. Denver has played 3 games on the back end of a back to back and 2 of those 3 have gone under the total. Denver has also seen 6 of their last 8 games go under against Eastern Conference teams. Ny comes into Denver averaging 101 points the last 5 trips their. 4 out of their last 5 trips their they have not seen a game over over 219 points. They have played 5 road games this year and are averaging 100 points per game. NY has seen 4 of its last 5 against the Northwest going under the total and those 5 games have averaged 204 points. NY has also seen the total go under the number the last 4 games on 1 days rest. I truly believe with Denver playing last night will not put in as much effort tonight against a hapless Knicks team. I also see NY starting their first game of their road trip to Denver is usually tough since it seems teams have problems adjusting to that altitude. So I feel this game will stay under the total tonight. 1 unit on the under for me.
Good Luck Everyone
Monday, November 15, 2010
11/15 Play
Well it has been a rough few days with the free picks. But the paid plays are not doing to bad. Now I can focus just on NBA tonight since their is only one NFL game and it does not catch my eye. Looking to get the free play back in winning mode so tonight I have 1 that I like.
Denver at Phoenix.
Play the Under 218.
Phoenix is on a back to back tonight after a big win over the Lakers so I do not know how much effort they will put into this game. They are only averaging 103 points per game on the back end of a back to back this year. They however have allowed 107 points per game their last 5 games on the back end of a back to back. The one thing that catches my eye on this is Denver has seen 4 of its last 5 games go under the total as an underdog of 2 or less points. The Average score for those 5 games is 202 points. Denver this year had played 5 road games and only one of them has gone over 218 points. Phoenix on the other hand has played 4 home games this year and 3 of those 4 went over 218 points but the game against Memphis they needed 43 points in the Overtime to get it over that number. A few trends I like fo this game are. The under is 4-1 in Denver's last 5 games on 3 days rest. The under is 4-1 in Denvers last 5 road games. The Under is 6-0 in the Suns last 6 games against the Northwest. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. I will play the under for 1 unit on this game.
Good Luck Everyone! I will have the paid plays up no later then 3pm eastern at . http://www.pickmonitor.com/profile/jeepsguy004
Denver at Phoenix.
Play the Under 218.
Phoenix is on a back to back tonight after a big win over the Lakers so I do not know how much effort they will put into this game. They are only averaging 103 points per game on the back end of a back to back this year. They however have allowed 107 points per game their last 5 games on the back end of a back to back. The one thing that catches my eye on this is Denver has seen 4 of its last 5 games go under the total as an underdog of 2 or less points. The Average score for those 5 games is 202 points. Denver this year had played 5 road games and only one of them has gone over 218 points. Phoenix on the other hand has played 4 home games this year and 3 of those 4 went over 218 points but the game against Memphis they needed 43 points in the Overtime to get it over that number. A few trends I like fo this game are. The under is 4-1 in Denver's last 5 games on 3 days rest. The under is 4-1 in Denvers last 5 road games. The Under is 6-0 in the Suns last 6 games against the Northwest. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. I will play the under for 1 unit on this game.
Good Luck Everyone! I will have the paid plays up no later then 3pm eastern at . http://www.pickmonitor.com/profile/jeepsguy004
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Suns at Lakers
Well the free pick was either a loss last night or a push. It all depends on what you got the line at. So today I have found one that should really get a win today. I have my paid plays up over at http://www.pickmonitor.com/profile/jeepsguy004.
Todays free Play is Suns and Lakers Under 216.5.
I like the fact that the Lakers are on 2 days rest. We should see their Defense play pretty solid today. They usually work on their D when they get two days rest. It shows with the trend of The Under is 20-7 the last 27 games when the Lakers have two days rest. The under is also 35-17 in the Lakers last 52 games after a straight up loss. That is showing me they step their D after a loss. The Spuns have seen the Under go under 4 of the last 5 road games. The under is also 4-1 in the last 5 games for them as a road underdog. 1 unit on the under in this game.
Good Luck Everyone!
Todays free Play is Suns and Lakers Under 216.5.
I like the fact that the Lakers are on 2 days rest. We should see their Defense play pretty solid today. They usually work on their D when they get two days rest. It shows with the trend of The Under is 20-7 the last 27 games when the Lakers have two days rest. The under is also 35-17 in the Lakers last 52 games after a straight up loss. That is showing me they step their D after a loss. The Spuns have seen the Under go under 4 of the last 5 road games. The under is also 4-1 in the last 5 games for them as a road underdog. 1 unit on the under in this game.
Good Luck Everyone!
Saturday, November 13, 2010
NBA 11/13
It was profitable night last night going 2-1-1 on my paid plays. The 1 unit freebie did not come through but I do have one that I like to get back to winning today. I have 3 College football games and 3 NBA games up that you can view for a small price today at http://www.pickmonitor.com/profile/jeepsguy004. Here is my freebie for today.
Bucks -7.5
The Bucks started this season a little slow but are starting to come together. They are 3-1 Su their past 4 games also going 3-1 ATS in those 4 games. They have played two home games this year as a Favorite of 5 or more and are 2-0 ATS in those games. They catch the Warriors tonight on their final game of this 5 game road trip. So I can see them looking forward to getting back home. The Warriors will also be without David Lee who is now out for the next two weeks. The Warriors have played 5 road games this year and have been a dog in four of them. They are 2-2 ATS in those 4 games but are 0-2 ATS as a dog of 5 or more. I really believe the Bucks will be ready to play and get a win an cover here tonight to get them back to .500 and show they are a team on the rise. The Warriors will struggle without Lee and like I said heading back home after this I think they could just be looking to get this road trip over with. 1 Unit on the Bucks -7.5 in this game.
Good Luck Everyone!
Bucks -7.5
The Bucks started this season a little slow but are starting to come together. They are 3-1 Su their past 4 games also going 3-1 ATS in those 4 games. They have played two home games this year as a Favorite of 5 or more and are 2-0 ATS in those games. They catch the Warriors tonight on their final game of this 5 game road trip. So I can see them looking forward to getting back home. The Warriors will also be without David Lee who is now out for the next two weeks. The Warriors have played 5 road games this year and have been a dog in four of them. They are 2-2 ATS in those 4 games but are 0-2 ATS as a dog of 5 or more. I really believe the Bucks will be ready to play and get a win an cover here tonight to get them back to .500 and show they are a team on the rise. The Warriors will struggle without Lee and like I said heading back home after this I think they could just be looking to get this road trip over with. 1 Unit on the Bucks -7.5 in this game.
Good Luck Everyone!
Friday, November 12, 2010
NBA 11/12
Well large NBA card tonight and I have a few games that I jumped on board already for. You can get those picks over at http://www.pickmonitor.com/profile/jeepsguy004.
The free pick for tonight is Detroit and LA Clippers under 190.
These two teams both play a very slow style basketball game. Detroit this year has played 4 road games and is only averaging 88 points per game on the road. The O/U is 1-3 in the Pistons road games this year. The Clippers on the other hand is averaging 92 points per game in their 4 homes games this year and they have all been against slow pace teams except the one against OKC and that is the game they scored 107 points. The O/U is 1-3 in the Clippers home games this year. I think we see Detroit and the Clippers both play their slow style basketball and this game only ends up being in the 180's. 1 Unit on the Under Pistons and Clippers.
The free pick for tonight is Detroit and LA Clippers under 190.
These two teams both play a very slow style basketball game. Detroit this year has played 4 road games and is only averaging 88 points per game on the road. The O/U is 1-3 in the Pistons road games this year. The Clippers on the other hand is averaging 92 points per game in their 4 homes games this year and they have all been against slow pace teams except the one against OKC and that is the game they scored 107 points. The O/U is 1-3 in the Clippers home games this year. I think we see Detroit and the Clippers both play their slow style basketball and this game only ends up being in the 180's. 1 Unit on the Under Pistons and Clippers.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Toledo at N. Illinois
Toldeo at N. Illinois
Opening Line: N Illinois -12 Over Under 48.5
Current Line: N Illinois -11 or -10.5 Over Under 49.5 or 50
Play Under 50 -110 Betjamaica
Both of these teams come into this game showing that they can score points. Toldeo is averaging 36 points per game their last 3 games. N. Illinois is averaging 35 points per game their last 3 games. With both teams scoring like this I have to wonder why they opened this total at 48.5. Well these two teams have played great defense as of late. Toledo is only allowing 17 points while N. Illinois is allowing only 14 points per game. N. Illinois is only allowing 14 points per game at home also this year. By opening this line at only 48.5 the books are saying that we should see a tough defensive game.
Their are a few trends that I like for this game. The under is 7-3 in Toledo's last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or greater. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 games that N. Illinois has played on a Tuesday night. The Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 games that N Illinois has played after a bye week. The under is 3-1-2 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The under is 2-1 in Toledo's 3 conference road games this year. The under is 2-1 in the 3 home conference games that N Illinois has played in this year.
N. Illinois is a team that likes to run the ball. We see that since they do average about 243 yards per game on the ground. That does eat up clock. Toledo is actually pretty solid at stopping the run allowing only 116 yards per game this year on the ground. Both of these teams are in the top 50 for yards allowed per game on defense. With both teams coming off a bye week and having the time to prepare for this game the defense's from both teams should be well rested and should dictate this game.
I really like that we are getting some value with the over being bet and moving this line up. The public likes the offense that these two teams have displayed as of late and we see that they are betting it also. I am believer in defense and that is how big games are won. This is a very big game since both teams are 5-0 in conference and are 1 and 2 seeds in the MAC West division. I believe that the under is the right play in this game.
Good Luck Everyone!
Opening Line: N Illinois -12 Over Under 48.5
Current Line: N Illinois -11 or -10.5 Over Under 49.5 or 50
Play Under 50 -110 Betjamaica
Both of these teams come into this game showing that they can score points. Toldeo is averaging 36 points per game their last 3 games. N. Illinois is averaging 35 points per game their last 3 games. With both teams scoring like this I have to wonder why they opened this total at 48.5. Well these two teams have played great defense as of late. Toledo is only allowing 17 points while N. Illinois is allowing only 14 points per game. N. Illinois is only allowing 14 points per game at home also this year. By opening this line at only 48.5 the books are saying that we should see a tough defensive game.
Their are a few trends that I like for this game. The under is 7-3 in Toledo's last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or greater. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 games that N. Illinois has played on a Tuesday night. The Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 games that N Illinois has played after a bye week. The under is 3-1-2 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The under is 2-1 in Toledo's 3 conference road games this year. The under is 2-1 in the 3 home conference games that N Illinois has played in this year.
N. Illinois is a team that likes to run the ball. We see that since they do average about 243 yards per game on the ground. That does eat up clock. Toledo is actually pretty solid at stopping the run allowing only 116 yards per game this year on the ground. Both of these teams are in the top 50 for yards allowed per game on defense. With both teams coming off a bye week and having the time to prepare for this game the defense's from both teams should be well rested and should dictate this game.
I really like that we are getting some value with the over being bet and moving this line up. The public likes the offense that these two teams have displayed as of late and we see that they are betting it also. I am believer in defense and that is how big games are won. This is a very big game since both teams are 5-0 in conference and are 1 and 2 seeds in the MAC West division. I believe that the under is the right play in this game.
Good Luck Everyone!
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